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Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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CT Rain
CT Rain

15.2" in West Hartford here at the station. Nuts.

RUNNAWAYICEBERG
RUNNAWAYICEBERG
Typhoon Tip
Typhoon Tip

You guys are acting like your on the spectrum with this shit at this point.  It's that bad - wtf

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Battle scar tissue

Scooter knows his setups. This is the 80th time in two years with another garbage airmass to start. I was thinking 5-8 this morning. Maybe it could be higher, but it probably will take awhile to get going.

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The 4 Seasons

The 4 Seasons

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

GFS/NAM bufkit are an absolute crushing for PVD. Thinking the heaviest banding is going to be NW of here so that bodes extremely well for BOS-ORH-Kevin-HFD like Will mentioned earlier. 

absolutely bonkers on every station i pulled from CT this morning for the 3K NAM, except GON had a lot of lift below the DGZ

Screenshot 2024-02-12 103753.png

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

absolutely bonkers on every station i pulled from CT this morning for the 3K NAM, except GON had a lot of lift below the DGZ

Screenshot 2024-02-12 103753.png

Yeah I'm pretty impressed with many of the soundings across the state. It's been a while since we seen something like this. Much of the state is going to get into this banding. I suppose it is possible ratios hold back the higher extent of totals, but I am really becoming worried about power issues, especially south and east of 84. That's alot of weight being added to trees/wires quickly. Maybe snow will have trouble sticking to power wires. 

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Spanks45

Spanks45

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Final call. Shifted everything SEWD a bit and highlighted the areas of likely highest snowfall, inland and above 500FT in the new haven county/FF county/tolland/windham hills where 12+ lollis possible. 

Increased NYC/LI significantly but didn't feel comfortable going much higher than 3-6 for them given the very marginal BL

02_12.24_jdj_v3_ct_ma_ri_snowfall_forecast_band_update.thumb.jpg.761ed16dd0536824e2ef155c83f72449.jpg

02_12.24_v3_jdj_tri_state_snowfall_forecast_update.thumb.jpg.823002cb84f8c56b9d4e5b8dfb16eac0.jpg

02_12.24_jdj_v3_ct_snowfall_forecast_update_banding.thumb.jpg.e6ed3b103109488d50b672cb29558334.jpg

beautiful.....any concerns if the Euro looks like the UKmet in 30 minutes?

Nowcasting the day before the storm, in marginal situations....Sort of like what jbenedet likes to do, but pretty sure we are running below guidance today with regards to temperatures. Still only 41/28 here, off of a low of 21. This morning the forecast was for 49 and sunny. Quite chilly with the breeze out of the north as well....

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EastonSN+

EastonSN+

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yeah I'm pretty impressed with many of the soundings across the state. It's been a while since we seen something like this. Much of the state is going to get into this banding. I suppose it is possible ratios hold back the higher extent of totals, but I am really becoming worried about power issues, especially south and east of 84. That's alot of weight being added to trees/wires quickly. Maybe snow will have trouble sticking to power wires. 

Yeah worried a bit here in SW CT. Lost power and tree fell on my house in March 2018 from that heavy snow event. 

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Greg

Greg

Posted
Posted

StormTotalSnowWeb.jpg

The Point Click method instead of the using the Range is probably the closest to the truth than reading (12-18") range for this particular storm. The speed of this thing, temps and its track are what are stopping this frome going higher.

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The 4 Seasons

The 4 Seasons

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

beautiful.....any concerns if the Euro looks like the UKmet in 30 minutes?

Nowcasting the day before the storm, in marginal situations....Sort of like what jbenedet likes to do, but pretty sure we are running below guidance today with regards to temperatures. Still only 41/28 here, off of a low of 21. This morning the forecast was for 49 and sunny. Quite chilly with the breeze out of the north as well....

slight but not really. Seems the GFS has handled this storm extremely well and consistently so far, and we have pretty great agreement across the board with all the mesos.

Yeah i noticed that too re: temps. OXC is only at 37 at noon, most of the valley locations and shore are into the low to mid 40s though

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah worried a bit here in SW CT. Lost power and tree fell on my house in March 2018 from that heavy snow event. 

The wind will be a factor as well. Not necessarily from a strength standpoint, but winds will be enough to sway branches/limbs, which, with added weight probably makes them more susceptible to coming down.

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NoCORH4L

NoCORH4L

Posted
Posted
Just now, CoastalWx said:

I think it will take most of the morning to dip below 32 even for you. Get ready for paste.

Even with things trending so South? Feel like the cold air will rush in much quicker than anticipated. 

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Greg

Greg

Posted
Posted

The temps initially are what are going to make the snow relatively tough to accumulate readily. Seen this with the Jan 6-7 storm. All snow but struggled in the beginning with 33-34F temps never mind the 36-36F to the south in that event that mad it tougher. So, I believe that is what the Mets are trying to get at with their snow accumulation maps at the National Weather Service in Norton. Nobody is getting a settled snowfall depth of 18" out of this. That's the Color Code Range, not the prediction. Even when colder mid-levels crash in, the intensity will be key to the wet bulb. Once again Speed, Temp and Track are paramount.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said:

Even with things trending so South? Feel like the cold air will rush in much quicker than anticipated. 

There's no real cold so even with the trends, it doesn't help a whole lot. Certainly better than it going over the canal for sure. The other thing is that if this somehow does shift and brings the best moisture only to the south coast, that hurts. Need the rates to help with the wetbulbing. 

 

I'm hoping this is finally a good storm for once. It's literally been 2 years of looking at models and feeling disappointed. 

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