Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Coastal crushing. Congrats smilin steve and shaky scooter.

[CoastalWx]

GFS really nails HFD to BOS and NW with decent fronto I think.

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS really nails HFD to BOS and NW with decent fronto I think.

Hopefully NW enough 

[dan11295]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

GFS really nails HFD to BOS and NW with decent fronto I think.

Yea you def think that corridor does better than what the clown maps show.

[ILoveWinter]

28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

For white rain?

They are not using a snow day and they have to consider that many teachers commute from outside of the city where a solid accumulation is expected. I don't think this was a surprising or wrong call at all.

[Patrick-02540]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS really nails HFD to BOS and NW with decent fronto I think.

Yeah.  When I'm in the "map jackpot" zone, areas northwest ALWAYS seem to do better.  For example, if Litchfield county shows a jack, Albany ends up jacking in a lot of these setups, not that that particular geographical example applies to this.  

[Patrick-02540]

1 minute ago, ILoveWinter said:

They are not using a snow day and they have to consider that many teachers commute from outside of the city where a solid accumulation is expected. I don't think this was a surprising or wrong call at all.

It gives parents a full 24 hours to deal with getting babysitters, etc lined up.

[met_fan]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

yup I'll be in Agawam for the storm but I would like to come back home to good cover

Do you commute Templeton to Agawam?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, Patrick-02540 said:

Yeah.  When I'm in the "map jackpot" zone, areas northwest ALWAYS seem to do better.  For example, if Litchfield county shows a jack, Albany ends up jacking in a lot of these setups, not that that particular geographical example applies to this.  

Yea. You typically want to be just north of the qpf gradient in dynamic systems.

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS really nails HFD to BOS and NW with decent fronto I think.

GFS looks damn good. Interesting with H7 though...doesn't seem to develop a closed off circulation until its well east. But that 850 low track is damn perfect for that corridor of HFD to BOS

[WinterWolf]

Pretty much Locked here for 10-12” imo. 

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

Yeah the jack zone is definitely gonna be north of PVD.

[CoastalWx]

Canadian tickled south a tad.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

Yeah the jack zone is definitely gonna be north of PVD.

Definitely, eh?

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

GFS looks damn good. Interesting with H7 though...doesn't seem to develop a closed off circulation until its well east. But that 850 low track is damn perfect for that corridor of HFD to BOS

H7 low basically tracks over southern shore of LI to Block Island or maybe just a touch S of BID on the GFS....that's a great spot for HFD/ORH/BOS.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

H7 low basically tracks over southern shore of LI to Block Island or maybe just a touch S of BID on the GFS....that's a great spot for HFD/ORH/BOS.

How’s the QPF look on the GFS Will? 

[subdude]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Weak sauce for N.ORH 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

How’s the QPF look on the GFS Will? 

Looks a bit SE of where'd I'd expect. You don't have any worries there.

[HoarfrostHubb]

59 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Its official 

NYC schools are closed tomorrow 

Remote Learning

Very weird 

Remote learning no longer allowed in Mass thank god

[Go Kart Mozart]

I have to wonder about the boundary layer temperatures forecasted by the models.  If it is pounding precip, -6c at 850, with steep lapse rates, NNE surface wind, I don't see how it is not solidly below 32f .

Then again, the models process all of this better than I do....so we'll see. 

[SouthCoastMA]

5 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

I have to wonder about the boundary layer temperatures forecasted by the models.  If it is pounding precip, -6c at 850, with steep lapse rates, NNE surface wind, I don't see how it is not solidly below 32f .

Then again, the models process all of this better than I do....so we'll see. 

Yeah it's not going to be pounding while temps are sitting in the mid 30s. Temps will pin down to 32 or 32.5° along the coast during the heaviest rates. I wouldnt even worry inland a few miles from the beaches. 

That being said..it will start as rain here and I can't see getting more than 5 or 6" with crappy ratios

[HoarfrostHubb]

Leaning toward the lower end of my 8-12" call from earlier.  Even that might be in doubt based on some guidance

 

(to be clear, I am just talking about N ORH county near  Rte 2)

[HIPPYVALLEY]

It’s remarkable how my pessimistic 4”- 6” call for Greenfield on Friday is still going to bust too high.  
I would honestly rather have nothing if we are only getting an inch or two of baking powder.  It was kind of nice hiking bare trails yesterday, not worrying about slipping.

[Chrisrotary12]

Well this blows. 

[weatherwiz]

12z NAM bufkit for BDL. Confidence certainly increasing we're going to see 2'' per hour rates and maybe even upwards of 2.5''. Can't ask for a better signature than this. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Anyone want to post the HREF’s that box likes

They are not drug testing based on the juiced maps 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=snowfall_024h_mean&sector=ne

just click further to the right (top center of the silver time bar )

[WeatherWilly]

Sorry for those to the north, but we are rocking 4 inches on the RI south coast so far this winter. 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Anyone want to post the HREF’s that box likes

They are not drug testing based on the juiced maps 

Here's HREF QPF on the 12z run...looks kind of like the NAM though maybe a tiny tick S.

[The Graupler]

21 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

I have to wonder about the boundary layer temperatures forecasted by the models.  If it is pounding precip, -6c at 850, with steep lapse rates, NNE surface wind, I don't see how it is not solidly below 32f .

Then again, the models process all of this better than I do....so we'll see. 

Not with that attitude 

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

12z NAM bufkit for BDL. Confidence certainly increasing we're going to see 2'' per hour rates and maybe even upwards of 2.5''. Can't ask for a better signature than this. 

3-4” per hour for a couple hours