Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Bump that a little more.

You don't want that bumped more....best banding is typically just N of H7 fronto

[wx2fish]

3k looks like a little bump north from 6z with the precip shield. What a hard call on the northside, esp MA/NH border and NE MA area. Nam and hrrr make it easier to discount the euro, were 6hr closer within 24hr now, but the stakes are high. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

3k is a thing of beauty around here....under 24 hrs until start time, lets bring this home already

For sure…. 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

It does seem to be narrowing in on a CT-trajectory special

Been thinking that for a while…but didn’t want to throw a wrench into it.  But I agree. 

[rgwp96]

Nam couldn’t  be any better for me in north jersey right now , hope this is the right scenario lol

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I've become more and more disillusioned with clown maps...they are lazy and often too wrong...looking at mid-levels and soundings is way better.

That's exactly how I feel. When they first became a thing they were fun to look at and interpret them but I seriously think they are a detriment to the field. When I was at school and there were winter storm threats the first thing most everyone did when the models came out were go right to the snow maps. It's really sad. At least for me, part of the storm enjoyment is the hardcore analysis and assessment. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You don't want that bumped more....best banding is typically just N of H7 fronto

I want it bumped a tiny bit more

[JC-CT]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Been thinking that for a while…but didn’t want to throw a wrench into it.  But I agree. 

Could be some pretty intense banding...somebody gonna smoke some exhaust for a while

[weathafella]

[HoarfrostHubb]

The area around Southboro, MA is looking good.  Our son's girlfriend works in Marlboro, so she might be staying closer to work for tomorrow

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

3k looks like a little bump north from 6z with the precip shield. What a hard call on the northside, esp MA/NH border and NE MA area. Nam and hrrr make it easier to discount the euro, were 6hr closer within 24hr now, but the stakes are high. 

Going to be a sharp cutoff....I don't think it goes from like 10-12" to 2" in 10 miles....but it could go from 12" to about 5-6" in 15-20 miles.

[wx2fish]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I've become more and more disillusioned with clown maps...they are lazy and often too wrong...looking at mid-levels and soundings is way better.

Even just qpf maps are more valuable most of the time. Unfortunately, its rampant in the field now across the field now

[weathafella]

12k:

 

 

[CoastalWx]

3K NAM has a MAUL look too near BOS on the soundings. Great fronto near the city and north. 

[rgwp96]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Thats some cut off 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, wx2fish said:

Even just qpf maps are more valuable most of the time. Unfortunately, its rampant in the field now across the field now

Agreed....QPF is very useful, though even that can be iffy at times, but QPF is an order of magnitude better than snow maps. When it comes to coastals, give me some good Mid-level maps with fronto and a few soundings....the QPF map can then be used with those other variables to get a more accurate picture of the potential snowfall.

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Agreed....QPF is very useful, though even that can be iffy at times, but QPF is an order of magnitude better than snow maps. When it comes to coastals, give me some good Mid-level maps with fronto and a few soundings....the QPF map can then be used with those other variables to get a more accurate picture of the potential snowfall.

Be that as it may, the nam and 3k clowns sure are purdy this morning.

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I've become more and more disillusioned with clown maps...they are lazy and often too wrong...looking at mid-levels and soundings is way better.

I'm not convinced I don't make the best banding.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not convinced I don't make the best banding.

NAM tickles you with some.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

8 minutes ago, rgwp96 said:

Thats some cut off 

Yeah, I'd like another 30 mile buffer zone.

[ROOSTA]

Devils in the details. Goalposts have shifted. I get it, happens every single snow event. Oh, my goodness which model is "less wrong" and choose your poison.
Think about the trends and bias of each.
Stick to your guns, there should be no emotional invest, no control just go with the trend and blend.
Yea, TREND AND BLEND 
A killer CCB FTW    

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not convinced I don't make the best banding.

NAM was pretty much there...you'd prob get the northern part of the good banding

[moneypitmike]

Is rgem next?  If whatever comes out next reverts to a hit, I’ll be on board.  I guess right now we have the nam(s) and icon.  

[RDRY]

Forecasting these volatile systems not an enviable task.

[ineedsnow]

27 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I want it bumped a tiny bit more

yup I'll be in Agawam for the storm but I would like to come back home to good cover

[Typhoon Tip]

22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Agreed....QPF is very useful, though even that can be iffy at times, but QPF is an order of magnitude better than snow maps. When it comes to coastals, give me some good Mid-level maps with fronto and a few soundings....the QPF map can then be used with those other variables to get a more accurate picture of the potential snowfall.

Ha!   I know you guys don't normally look at the FOUS ( it's an old habit of mine ...) but my god at the QPF at Logan comparing prior runs.

since 12z yesterday's NAM ...every model cycle had been stubbornly putting out 2 intervals of QPF/liq equiv, and the numbers are always .5"-ish followed by .3"-ish  ... totaling ~ .8".  It just was not changing for that location.

12z just now?         .27"  +    1.04"  +   .22"       hahaha    my goodness

[DavisStraight]

8 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Is rgem next?  If whatever comes out next reverts to a hit, I’ll be on board.  I guess right now we have the nam(s) and icon.  

You're optimistic, that's making me nervous.

[DavisStraight]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

yup I'll be in Agawam for the storm but I would like to come back home to good cover

Agawam should do decent in this one.

[Ginx snewx]

Lollis to 18?

[weatherwiz]

I think BDL is like 15'' below the seasonal average for snowfall. That deficit could be eliminated.