Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/12/2024 at 2:37 AM, JKEisMan said:

HREF should be interesting later tonight. The individual ensemble members are coming in pretty zonked, e.g.

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As skeptical as I am of the NAM, that thing isn't in range yet. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Beers 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/12/2024 at 2:18 AM, Greg said:

Better looks don't translate to realism. Use the 10:1 instead.

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The Kuchie is absolutely more appropriate near the northern edge under H7 banding....to the south and near the coast, I agree.

[Greg]

  On 2/12/2024 at 2:41 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

As skeptical as I am of the NAM, that thing isn't in range yet. 

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Stated the same comment to another poster just moments earlier.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 2/12/2024 at 2:43 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The Kuchie is absolutely more appropriate near the northern edge under H7 banding....to the south and near the coast, I agree.

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Kuchie will be less than 10:1 in rain/snow situations .. 

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

Does anyone have a link to that site where you can see the top analogs for a particular storm?

[NEPASnow]

  On 2/12/2024 at 2:23 AM, Greg said:

No offense, I get what your saying but the Northeast is pretty broad in description,

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thanks but unfortunately the other parts of the forum don't really cover my area and I found this forum at times cover my area better then upstate or mid atlantic

[Greg]

  On 2/12/2024 at 2:43 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The Kuchie is absolutely more appropriate near the northern edge under H7 banding....to the south and near the coast, I agree.

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Finally in agreement with you here but only on that northern periphery with the H7, the rest as I stated with the model solution, meh.....

[JKEisMan]

  On 2/12/2024 at 2:43 AM, Greg said:

Stated the same comment to another poster just moments earlier.

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Not the NAM.

and starting to come into range in CT.

[Ginx snewx]

  On 2/12/2024 at 2:40 AM, Greg said:

Your not getting that bank on it.

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Was never about me lol.was about the margins. Just so you know the 10 to 1 you suggested I use gives me 14 while Kuchie is 9. I would go into a long discussion of why but apparently you missed the original point and it doesn't matter 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/12/2024 at 2:44 AM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Kuchie will be less than 10:1 in rain/snow situations .. 

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It should, but it's up to the forecaster to make sure it makes sense. 

[Greg]

  On 2/12/2024 at 2:44 AM, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

Does anyone have a link to that site where you can see the top analogs for a particular storm?

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I know of a couple in the KU book that this somewhat resembles but not to a perfect tee though. Thay are not blockbusters but nice and decent.

[Ginx snewx]

  On 2/12/2024 at 2:43 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The Kuchie is absolutely more appropriate near the northern edge under H7 banding....to the south and near the coast, I agree.

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No it's better in warm environments 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/12/2024 at 2:49 AM, Ginx snewx said:

No it's better in warm environments 

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Sometimes 10:1 doesn't cut it under H7 banding is my point.

[ROOSTA]

  On 2/12/2024 at 2:44 AM, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

Does anyone have a link to that site where you can see the top analogs for a particular storm?

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Just look up CIPS.

[moneypitmike]

  On 2/12/2024 at 2:49 AM, Ginx snewx said:

No it's better in warm environments 

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I have no idea when to use that vs 10:1

[weatherwiz]

  On 2/12/2024 at 2:52 AM, moneypitmike said:

I have no idea when to use that vs 10:1

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Simple:

It's best to use 10:1....never

It's best to use Kuchera...never 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/12/2024 at 2:45 AM, NEPASnow said:

thanks but unfortunately the other parts of the forum don't really cover my area and I found this forum at times cover my area better then upstate or mid atlantic

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All that was meant was just try to post maps that are a bit more representative of the region. Sorry to give you a hard time.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/12/2024 at 2:53 AM, weatherwiz said:

Simple:

It's best to use 10:1....never

It's best to use Kuchera...never 

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They are tools....up to the forecaster to make a forecast. 

[RedSky]

Can I be in the northeast too 

[George001]

  On 2/12/2024 at 2:06 AM, DavisStraight said:

Ill take this

 

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This looks like it was run out of Metfans cruiser

[NEPASnow]

  On 2/12/2024 at 2:54 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

All that was meant was just try to post maps that are a bit more representative of the region. Sorry to give you a hard time.

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Thanks, my bad as well.  The other sub forums on american are kinda lame

[weatherwiz]

  On 2/12/2024 at 2:56 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

They are tools....up to the forecaster to make a forecast. 

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Yup...just it, tools. 

Dollar store tools but still tools  

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/12/2024 at 2:57 AM, NEPASnow said:

Thanks, my bad as well.  The other sub forums on american are kinda lame

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Totally

[Sn0waddict]

  On 2/12/2024 at 2:57 AM, NEPASnow said:

Thanks, my bad as well.  The other sub forums on american are kinda lame

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Most of this board comes from easternuswx, which as the name suggests focused on the major eastern cities.

[MuddyWx]

reggie south

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

00z ICON is south. Looks a bit like the 18z Euro now.

[moneypitmike]

ICON

[moneypitmike]

RGEM--get out the toasters.

[NEPASnow]

mesoscale models seem to be struggling with the transfer