Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[DavisStraight]

34 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

1.2" QPF on a 7:1 ratio is a fun event.  Looking forward to some of the obs and photos from this.

Looking forward to powder blowing around here.

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

HRRR has its own snowfall algorithm. Use that! 

[Ginx snewx]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Underdone north.

Joke, I look at this and think there is going to be lots of people smilin, some will death band and Jack, some will subside,some will look at qpf and queen, some will Debbie and Nellie but this is just a  classic classic Noreaster setup for SNE

[ineedsnow]

33 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

With good rates that will change 

hope you guys can score something

[Johnno]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Metfan ftw

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Joke, I look at this and think there is going to be lots of people smilin, some will death band and Jack, some will subside,some will look at qpf and queen, some will Debbie and Nellie but this is just  classic classic Noreaster setup for SNE

You are correct with this for most of the SNE forum members and a chunk of the southern CNE members. Coast still has some legit concerns though…esp like cape over to SE CT coast. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

You are correct with this for most of the SNE forum members and a chunk of the southern CNE members. Coast still has some legit concerns though…esp like cape over to SE CT coast. 

I’d say anyone like 5 miles from the coast will ultimately Be okay. Might be sloppy but, should be good 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You are correct with this for most of the SNE forum members and a chunk of the southern CNE members. Coast still has some legit concerns though…esp like cape over to SE CT coast. 

Someone gave congrats and jacks to CC

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You are correct with this for most of the SNE forum members and a chunk of the southern CNE members. Coast still has some legit concerns though…esp like cape over to SE CT coast. 

Once heights crash they will join in big time. Typical New England,  probably sleet in there as well

[weatherwiz]

The HRRR doesn't look terrible at all, just judging by SLP track. Happy to see so weird lows or dual lows. The low is more elongated which may help with a more expansive banding/QPF field? A tighter circulation would introduce potential for more in the way of banded precip? This is where my overall lack of knowledge on winter storm climo bites me in the fanny...I knows its been discussed before about differences between a more elongated low vs. tighter circulation. 

[NEPASnow]

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Once heights crash they will join in big time. Typical New England,  probably sleet in there as well

This doesn’t seem like a sleet setup . Rain or snow 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, NEPASnow said:

Wrong forum.lol

[NEPASnow]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Wrong forum.lol

just posting 18z euro output for parts of NE, I know its not all of SNE

[DavisStraight]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The HRRR doesn't look terrible at all, just judging by SLP track. Happy to see so weird lows or dual lows. The low is more elongated which may help with a more expansive banding/QPF field? A tighter circulation would introduce potential for more in the way of banded precip? This is where my overall lack of knowledge on winter storm climo bites me in the fanny...I knows its been discussed before about differences between a more elongated low vs. tighter circulation. 

Ill take this

 

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This doesn’t seem like a sleet setup . Rain or snow 

Euro is balls cold aloft

[ineedsnow]

Just now, NEPASnow said:

how's it wrong forum, just posting 18z euro output

post new england

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, NEPASnow said:

how's it wrong forum, just posting 18z euro output

None of which shows new england  lol

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This doesn’t seem like a sleet setup . Rain or snow 

It’s pretty marginal but sleet wouldn’t be that surprising along the warm nose.  It’s just the boundary layer may not be overly cold.  Folks hear sleet and think of cold pellets accumulating in the 20s.  Overall this looks like snow and white rain/rain will be the gradient.

[MJO812]

Nam is still so far south with the transfer 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Ill take this

 

Still the HRRR at the extending but not showing anything funky so that's good to see. 

I'm wondering about the ratios on the HRRR though...its pretty warm at the sfc...not warm enough for PTYPE concerns but that would be a paste for many. Would certainly see some power concerns, even well into the interior. 

[NEPASnow]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

None of which shows new england  lol

who cares

[weatherwiz]

0z looks stronger with the southern stream and faster with the northern stream through 15z Tuesday. It's even closed off again at H5

[MJO812]

[Torch Tiger]

2 minutes ago, NEPASnow said:

who cares

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

It’s pretty marginal but sleet wouldn’t be that surprising along the warm nose.  It’s just the boundary layer may not be overly cold.  Folks hear sleet and think of cold pellets accumulating in the 20s.  Overall this looks like snow and white rain/rain will be the gradient.

Look at 18Z Euro cold, even Kuchie looks good. That is a great look

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, NEPASnow said:

who cares

Very very odd response but carry on

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

When was the last time that we saw a significant snowstorm with these sort of ratios? Paste bombs usually max out at around 6-8 inches but this one has higher potential than that. Dec 92 is the only really high end paste bomb I can think of. I recall that Feb 2013 started out wet also but became powdery pretty quick. 

[Greg]

Heights will crash better than the Jan 6-7th this time, which is very good for those who have missed out on the most part of this winter, Places like Bedford, Mass Blue Hills (Milton), Boston, Northern Rhode Island, Hartford to Poughkeepsie, NY in that sort of line/corridor should do well in this one and catch up in the snowfall department.

[weatherwiz]

can't ask for much more