Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[moneypitmike]

If the gfs shifts south and sucks again on amounts I’ll really be bummed.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

No, I think the people are focusing on details that are a little bit below expectation for what the guides are capable of doing - because they need to get the snow into their backyard very small movement seem very much bigger than they really are.

If we step back and look at it from a bigger, synoptic overview? Theres a decent short duration impactor that’s higher confidence - the changes are not significant to warrant whether that’s going to be the case or not

True so the smaller synoptic changes in the icon at a glance normally wouldn’t warrant the shift we are seeing in terms of precip and snowfall output you are saying? 

[Kitz Craver]

What are we thinking for ratios and wind? 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

If the gfs shifts south and sucks again on amounts I’ll really be bummed.

And I’m the Debbie.

[weathafella]

5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

If the gfs shifts south and sucks again on amounts I’ll really be bummed.

Presuming you’re in pit2?

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

If the gfs shifts south and sucks again on amounts I’ll really be bummed.

Please tell me you’re in Maine for this.

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

True so the smaller synoptic changes in the icon at a glance normally wouldn’t warrant the shift we are seeing in terms of precip and snowfall output you are saying? 

I couldn’t figure out what he was trying to say…?  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

I couldn’t figure out what he was trying to say…?  

He’s saying we obsess over every small deviation but if we zoomed out they are practically irrelevant. It’s locked overall. 

[moneypitmike]

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Presuming you’re in pit2?

on way back to mass......on my phone so all I can hear is things are south, precip south,  south coast and CT getting slammed......sounds like a SOP.

 

Hoping that's not what it is.  For my sake that is.

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

on way back to mass......on my phone so all I can hear is things are south, precip south,  south coast and CT getting slammed......sounds like a SOP.

 

Hoping that's not what it is.  For my sake that is.

You’re in great shape in westborough!

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

on way back to mass......on my phone so all I can hear is things are south, precip south,  south coast and CT getting slammed......sounds like a SOP.

 

Hoping that's not what it is.  For my sake that is.

Diet Coke?

[Ginx snewx]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

And I’m the Debbie.

You know you responded to the original Eyeore 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

You’re in great shape in westborough!

He’s right down the middle of the strike zone for the best dynamics lol.

[weatherwiz]

Forecast 

https://weatherwiz.blogspot.com/2024/02/tuesday-february-13-2024-winter-storm.html

[Typhoon Tip]

16 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

True so the smaller synoptic changes in the icon at a glance normally wouldn’t warrant the shift we are seeing in terms of precip and snowfall output you are saying? 

Right – I might be wrong, but I don’t see them as significant enough to worry or much “consternation”. 

I keep reading post like icon way south and I go look at it and it barely bounced. I mean it’s still a big blue inky dark mass of heavy snow for 4 to 6 hours between White Plains, New York and Bedford Massachusetts - doesn’t seem to change run to run to run to run to run. Bit of “over application of interpretation” 

It’s OK I get it though on the south. I mean whoever gets snow and doesn’t get snow might actually be a really tough and tight gradient to call down there because it could be 10 miles differentiating 9 inches from an inch of mix

…everybody’s gonna flash freeze as soon as the wind backs that isn’t already frozen.  

 

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Forecast 

https://weatherwiz.blogspot.com/2024/02/tuesday-february-13-2024-winter-storm.html

Nicely done 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

He’s saying we obsess over every small deviation but if we zoomed out they are practically irrelevant. It’s locked overall. 

Oh ok, thanks for the translation lol. 

[dendrite]

Only a tenth for Methuen. Ouch.

[DavisStraight]

6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

on way back to mass......on my phone so all I can hear is things are south, precip south,  south coast and CT getting slammed......sounds like a SOP.

 

Hoping that's not what it is.  For my sake that is.

You're going to get hammered

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Gfs with another bump se.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Nicely done 

Not as confident out towards the Cape. I always have low confidence out there since I never go into great depth looking. Spent alot of time trying to digest the banding potential and highest total swath. I almost didn't want to include that area and go with a larger range because its going to be very difficult to determine how that evolves. 

[moneypitmike]

thanks for having me put down the toaster.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I couldn’t figure out what he was trying to say…?  

JD part of that’s my phone…

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Gfa with another bump se.

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Crush job

[Damage In Tolland]

Theres the 16+ lollis 

[JKEisMan]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Crush job

Looks good. Time to lock it in.

[RDRY]

Everything trending away from a central/northern Berks hit.

[MJO812]

The vort becoming weaker in the south is causing these south trends.

[Typhoon Tip]

The funny thing is we still have 3 or 4 model cycles before this goes into now-cast ‘panic’

… that’s when the battle royalle  between Librium and Xanax to determine what is the more effective management tool really gets going…