Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[8611Blizz]

Timing on the nam is interesting.  No snow into ESNE until 10am?

[weathafella]

Buries NYC, Ant gets 20 minutes of relief before the next one.....light to moderate to little snow in most of sne

[CoastalWx]

Nails south coast and mid levels would probably nail pike. Weird run.

[weatherwiz]

the 3km seems nothing like the 12z. I've seen the two differ before but WTF

[CoastalWx]

Meanwhile its hi res brother destroys.

[weathafella]

Yeah actually snows pretty good Tuesday afternoon but it's not 8-12 job....lol.

[JKEisMan]

  On 2/11/2024 at 8:24 PM, weatherwiz said:

the 3km seems nothing like the 12z. I've seen the two differ before but WTF

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Nam3km is beautiful for CT.

[78Blizzard]

The NAM has never been bullish about this system for us, save for one run.

[Ginx snewx]

  On 2/11/2024 at 8:19 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Yea I don't think so

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3K is insane 

[EastonSN+]

Rooting hard for the NAMs, CMC, UKMET and Reggie. GFS is stubborn.

[weathafella]

Yeah 3k is a big time crusher.

[Ginx snewx]

  On 2/11/2024 at 8:25 PM, weathafella said:

Yeah actually snows pretty good Tuesday afternoon but it's not 8-12 job....lol.

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Yea I haven't used 12k for a while. Sorry thought you were referring to 3K cuz that's nutz here

[weatherwiz]

  On 2/11/2024 at 8:26 PM, JKEisMan said:

Nam3km is beautiful for CT.

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It is. The 3km NAM also aligns more with my thinking currently. I've never been big on the NAM for this type of system and was just more curious with how it would handle banding over anything else. The NAM has been more inconsistent run-to-run than most other models. I am inclined to toss it...but there is always that worry it "sniffs" something out. Working on a snowfall forecast now.

[weathafella]

  On 2/11/2024 at 8:27 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Yea I haven't used 12k for a while. Sorry thought you were referring to 3K cuz that's nutz here

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3k annihilates most of MA late morning into the afternoon Tuesday.

[Damage In Tolland]

Someone may pull 18-20”

[weatherwiz]

I wonder if the NAM is chasing convection here

[CoastalWx]

It did this for 1/7 too. Total whiff on 12k. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Good good. As long as stopped itself from sending the mid levels through the berks. 

[Spanks45]

Lol...Nam 12k - 4ish inches, 3k - pushing 18" here

Ha, great models

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 2/11/2024 at 8:30 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Someone may pull 18-20”

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There’s a tiny shot sure but you have to wonder if this post coincides with being several beers deep. 

[wxsniss]

Crushing at 15z KBOS on 12z NAM and 18z 3kNAM

(tossing 18z NAM... looks like may chased some convection?)

  

[tavwtby]

outta here in a hurry huh? looks like all done by 1700hrs, quick hitter

[78Blizzard]

The 3k NAM says 1"/hr rate minimum between 13z and 21z, with 2"/hr at times for BOS area.

[Ginx snewx]

  On 2/11/2024 at 8:40 PM, 78Blizzard said:

The 3k NAM says 1"/hr rate minimum between 13z and 21z, with 2"/hr at times for BOS area.

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That's a classic run

[dendrite]

  On 2/11/2024 at 8:33 PM, Spanks45 said:

Lol...Nam 12k - 4ish inches, 3k - pushing 18" here

Ha, great models

 

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Wait until you see the 0.5k. Wow. 

[The 4 Seasons]

Lets pull a Feb 2001. Wet heavy daytime storm with flakes the size of baseballs.

[Ginx snewx]

  On 2/11/2024 at 8:44 PM, dendrite said:

Wait until you see the 0.5k. Wow. 

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Mesos really ramping up. Interesting trend in qpf. 

[Ginx snewx]

  On 2/11/2024 at 8:46 PM, The 4 Seasons said:

Lets pull a Feb 2001. Wet heavy daytime storm with flakes the size of baseballs.

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Was in Maine for 4 feet at SR. Power outage city.

[The 4 Seasons]

  On 2/11/2024 at 8:44 PM, dendrite said:

Wait until you see the 0.5k. Wow. 

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32K is nice too (from 12z) . 

[Go Kart Mozart]

  On 2/11/2024 at 8:24 PM, weatherwiz said:

the 3km seems nothing like the 12z. I've seen the two differ before but WTF

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The Ferrier rime correction is not favorable.  Then again, I have no effing idea what that is.