Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[moneypitmike]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

12z EURO is back to a mid level crushing from Kev to me.

Hopefully a wide enough band to catch the pike/495 interchange.

[Modfan2]

Sorry for the IMBY question but I Have a family member flying out Tuesday evening and wondering if they should change flight to Monday; but she is a teacher (Windham County) and wondering if schools will be cancelled Tuesday? 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Modfan2 said:

Sorry for the IMBY question but I Have a family member flying out Tuesday evening and wondering if they should change flight to Monday; but she is a teacher (Windham County) and wondering if schools will be cancelled Tuesday? 

If it snows like it looks to..school will definitely be canceled Tuesday. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

@HoarfrostHubbNARCAN is very slow...not yet

[Sey-Mour Snow]

EPS much improved as well for SNE everything south again and delayed which has correlated to colder.. 

Kev to Scott 11-12" mean ..

Posted is 25th / 50th / 75th percentile .. That's about the least amount of variance I've seen in those for 48-60 hours 

[MJO812]

Eps with another shift south

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Sorry for the IMBY question but I Have a family member flying out Tuesday evening and wondering if they should change flight to Monday; but she is a teacher (Windham County) and wondering if schools will be cancelled Tuesday? 

Tuesday evening shouldn't be bad in CT, but delays and cancellations from earlier will probably back things up. I would get out Monday. Schools will be closed Tuesday.

[dendrite]

Nice run. I can push broom this amount.

[Ginx snewx]

9 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

EPS much improved as well everything south again and delayed which has correlated to colder.. 

Kev to Scott 11-12" mean ..

Posted is 25th / 50th / 75th percentile .. That's about the least amount of variance I've seen in those for 48-60 hours 

Smile Mile wide now LFG

[HoarfrostHubb]

10” would bring me almost to 45” for the season which isn’t bad considering December was a shutout. 

[CoastalWx]

Starting to get a little movement in pants after 2 years of flaccidity.

[CoastalWx]

Hopefully nam thermals are correct for boundary layer 

[EMontpelierWhiteout]

2 hours ago, mreaves said:

I don’t care about the back and forth between SNE posters or jackpotting or even getting advisory level snows. I would, however, like a couple of inches like this shows just to reestablish a wintry vibe. There is no denying that it’s been an out and out torch but I’ve been surprised how resilient the snowpack has been here in my immediate area. It would be nice to pretty it up a bit.  

Same sentiment here. Happy for those south of the VT border finally cashing in, but just a bit to freshen things up would be nice.  Seems like storms with the right airmass to get both a northern and southern NE hit is a thing of the past. 

[mahk_webstah]

12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Nice run. I can push broom this amount.

Our mid level goodies getting eaten by someone else.

[mahk_webstah]

That hoar gonna eat my goodies

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

Will a Blizzard Warning eventually be issued for eastern areas? Wind criteria seems like it will be met.

[MJO812]

Better for SNE coastal weenies 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

Will a Blizzard Warning eventually be issued for eastern areas? Wind criteria seems like it will be met.

I don’t see this as meeting criteria. 

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I don’t see this as meeting criteria. 

Can you elaborate? You don't think that three hours of frequent gusts 35mph+ is likely? Why would it not meet the criteria?

[dendrite]

8 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Our mid level goodies getting eaten by someone else.

After the weather this weekend my mind is onto spring. A couple of inches will be nice as I can re-cover the couple of grape vines that lost all of the snow around them.

[Snowcrazed71]

8 minutes ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

Will a Blizzard Warning eventually be issued for eastern areas? Wind criteria seems like it will be met.

How much are they going to reach criteria. You have to be in the 20s as well if I'm not mistaken, and I don't think that's going to happen.

[Spanks45]

32 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

EPS much improved as well for SNE everything south again and delayed which has correlated to colder.. 

Kev to Scott 11-12" mean ..

Posted is 25th / 50th / 75th percentile .. That's about the least amount of variance I've seen in those for 48-60 hours 

That is what I was hoping for down here, nice to see that north trend stop and one begin southward at 6z and continue at 12z. Trends are key, not a run one blip...

[tavwtby]

nice AFD... wait for warnings to be hoisted this afternoon!

Deterministic and ensemble guidance(especially GEFS/EPS) have
come into better agreement regarding the significant winter
storm approaching from the central Appalachians and mid Atlantic
region Monday night into Tuesday. Surface cyclone deepening to
~980 mb or even sub-980 mb is expected as the cyclone center
tracks E-NE from near the Delmarva Mon night off the coast to
just south of Long Island and southern New England on Tue. While
still a progressive system, the upper trough is forecast to
become negatively tilted at 500 mb as the storm tracks just SE
of Cape Cod. Significant F-Gen NW of the cyclone should result
in pronounced mesoscale banding. Local CSTAR research from
UAlbany on mesoscale band movement resembles characteristics of
a pivoting band with a closed upper low and dual upper jet
structure. Typically pivoting bands can result in extreme
snowfall. However, the greatest challenge with this storm is the
anticipated relatively fast movement of this system, so extreme
snowfall rates would have to be realized for higher end
accumulations to occur since the residence time will not be as
long as storms with slower movement. Where the banding sets up
will be the location of the heaviest swath of snow, which could
be in the 12+", as evidenced by the high end (90%)
probabilities. The most favored areas are south/east of Albany.
Time frame is still just outside the scope of hi-res guidance,
so mesoscale details such as max snowfall rates will come into
better focus later today into tonight.

[Snowcrazed71]

Well, they just upgraded us to winter storm warning in Hartford county and if you counties to the east into Massachusetts. They also up the totals to 7 to 13 inches now

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 7 to
  13 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northern Connecticut, central, eastern,
  northeastern and western Massachusetts and northern Rhode
  Island.

* WHEN...From 1 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible with
  snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour at times. Areas of
  blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The
  hazardous conditions will particularly impact the Tuesday
  morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wet snow and gusty winds may result in
  power outages.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, MuddyWx said:

Even with the trends I'd think you're in a good spot for >6" no?

Maybe? I’m pretty close to the Vermont border and West of River.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

How much are they going to reach criteria. You have to be in the 20s as well if I'm not mistaken, and I don't think that's going to happen.

Temp is not part of the criteria. 
 

The wind is always the tough part. It’s difficult to get 3 hours straight of the criteria and to line it up with the <= 1/4SM +SN. I highly doubt they issue a BW anywhere. 

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

How much are they going to reach criteria. You have to be in the 20s as well if I'm not mistaken, and I don't think that's going to happen.

A quick Google search brought this up: "Issued for sustained or gusty winds of 35 mph or more, and falling or blowing snow creating visibilities at or below ¼ mile; these conditions should persist for at least three hours."

I wasn't aware that there was a temperature criteria.

[tavwtby]

3 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

How much are they going to reach criteria. You have to be in the 20s as well if I'm not mistaken, and I don't think that's going to happen.

thought they got rid of temp criteria a while ago?

[Snowcrazed71]

3 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

How much are they going to reach criteria. You have to be in the 20s as well if I'm not mistaken, and I don't think that's going to happen.

I stand to be corrected. It's 3 hours of visibilities below a quarter of a mile and when's above 35 mph with blowing and drifting snow. So it's feasible I guess. Sometimes these things happen as the storm is going on.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

That is what I was hoping for down here, nice to see that north trend stop and one begin southward at 6z and continue at 12z. Trends are key, not a run one blip...

Yea. It’s why confidence and weenie are up today.