Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

13 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Writing has been on the wall since the start of the 22/23 winter...we know how this ends. A mixed bag of 2-4 inches

Lol not that bad. You are snake bit. thinking 4-6” with a shot at 8”.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

Starting to feel like a 3-6” forecast here 

Max right now.

[Modfan2]

How does the time frame of this coming in on Monday? 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Lol not that bad. You are snake bit. thinking 4-6” with a shot at 8”.

Ya this has a lot higher floor than all the other junk we've seen.. think 3"+ for all then 6" + 84 north .. not your normal coating to 2" until you get to extreme northern CT 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Gfs looks less juicy and maybe a tick south. Still pretty mild outside higher elevations. 

Escapes east a bit before it can really destroy us….

 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Modfan2 said:

How does the time frame of this coming in on Monday? 

Looks like 3-4a there Tuesday morning 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

GFS with a messy precip shield , a lot less juicy 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Escapes east a bit before it can really destroy us….

 

Yeah blows up offshore. Good look for pike region acrually.

[CoastalWx]

Almost a LBSW look.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

GFS ticked surface / 850 / 700 SE and is cold enough for 95% snow in CT.. just not as much precip .. almost 12km NAM Like 

[DavisStraight]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Escapes east a bit before it can really destroy us….

 

Too bad the phase wasn't a little earlier or a short stall, we could really go to town for a few more hours.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah blows up offshore. Good look for like region acrually.

Yeah I thought I was gonna get like an 18-burger that run when I saw what aloft looked like at 51 hours but then it didn’t really show up on QPF. 
 

Speed of this system is what is keeping me from going fully crazy bullish IMBY. I feel good about 8-12 but still potential for higher if we can pseudo-stall it for like 2 hours during the capture. GFS didn’t really allow that. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Almost a LBSW look.

Ya instead its a LBW look ... Looks like we built a border wall on the CT/NY line 

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya instead its a LBW look ... Looks like we built a border wall on the CT/NY line 

Save a horse.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Canadian still not biting fully, heavy snow up to pike only.. Weird how slow it's been to buy in 

[NW_of_GYX]

8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Max right now.

Improvements with broader precip shield. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Save a horse.

ok dude I bet you are sitting back smiling on your horse right now .. 

[NEPASnow]

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya instead its a LBW look ... Looks like we built a border wall on the CT/NY line 

some impressive precip amounts in central pa, nepa and lower hudson valley

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

ok dude I bet you are sitting back smiling on your horse right now .. 

Always tell your pre storm angst. You get ornery. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Always tell your pre storm angst. You get ornery. 

He’s got 8” of pre storm angst this season. I get it.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

He’s got 8” of pre storm angst this season. I get it.

Well I am only at a foot. Suck it up buttercup. But deep deep winter incoming. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Always tell your pre storm angst. You get ornery. 

Feel the same about your optimism sometimes. Can’t just sit back and smile when the inevitable is right in your face .. I haven’t been wrong yet with every storm falling apart here since 2021..  when things look good I’ll be positive when they don’t I’ll note the possible negatives. 

I said pretty clearly I feel pretty damn good and optimistic for a widespread 3”+ south and 6”+ 84 north. 

[ROOSTA]

MESO's coming in juiced. SW PA 12-18" end of the 12z run.
I know...out-of-range.
Just something to watch...

[HIPPYVALLEY]

9 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

ok dude I bet you are sitting back smiling on your horse right now .. 

Ginx waiting for the afternoon models to roll in.

 

[weathafella]

I'm a little spooked by the GFS bl.

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Feel the same about your optimism sometimes. Can’t just sit back and smile when the inevitable is right in your face .. I haven’t been wrong yet with every storm falling apart here since 2021..  when things look good I’ll be positive when they don’t I’ll note the possible negatives. 

I said pretty clearly I feel pretty damn good and optimistic for a widespread 3”+ south and 6”+ 84 north. 

Woah I was joking calm down Nostradamus

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I'm a little spooked by the GFS bl.

As long as we have been weenies and as long as it has existed the GFS absolutely blows with BL temps winter after winter. You are far enough off the water. I see blizzard conditions in your future.  Sure you may spit rain but once the omega arrives it's pound town. Same as the Nellie's in CT. Massive CCB

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

MESO's coming in juiced. SW PA 12-18" end of the 12z run.
I know...out-of-range.
Just something to watch...

HRRR? 

[ROOSTA]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

HRRR? 

Yes.  My bad not ID'ing

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

Looks rather underwhelming for my area tbh but still likely our best storm since Jan 2022 so we take.