Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[CoastalWx]

NAM still a meh banded mess.

[JC-CT]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM still a meh banded mess.

It's kinda fun to see the nam so paltry while global is not.

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

It's kinda fun to see the nam so paltry while global is not.

Reggie juiced up. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Reggie juiced up. 

Yep

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[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Reggie juiced up. 

Weird how the mesos are lagging so much in globals. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Weird how the mesos are lagging so much in globals. 

I know it. The nam is the model I’d expect to go over the cape. Maybe they see something. Although based on Reggie it probably ticks north. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I know it. The nam is the model I’d expect to go over the cape. Maybe they see something. Although based on Reggie it probably ticks north. 

Yeah they’ll def still tick north, but I wonder if globals stabilize or even come a tick south again (like 06z did)…I usually expect everything to bump a little north in the 48-60 time range. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah they’ll def still tick north, but I wonder if globals stabilize or even come a tick south again (like 06z did)…I usually expect everything to bump a little north in the 48-60 time range. 

Messenger rule in full effect. From here on out subtle but noticeable SE ticks 

[Modfan2]

Welp, first time back in FL since moving back to CT and figures I might get more snow than I have the past two seasons. 

[Torch Tiger]

The SE ticks are shocking! 

[Lava Rock]

Congrats sne. You guys deserve it

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[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Messenger rule in full effect. From here on out subtle but noticeable SE ticks 

I usually don’t expect messenger ticks until very late. We’ll see what 12z does. 06z easily could’ve just been a slight wobble and not a trend. 

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Congrats sne. You guys deserve it

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Going to be a nice storm for them while I enjoy the rain.  

[CoastalWx]

The fact that a storm that tracks the way this does has boundary layer issues to start is ridiculous. 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

The fact that a storm that tracks the way this does has boundary layer issues to start is ridiculous. 

Welcome to our recent winters where a great track doesn't guarantee snow.

[HinghamBoss]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

The fact that a storm that tracks the way this does has boundary layer issues to start is ridiculous. 

Story of the last two years.  Remember the same sentiment last storm.

 

 

[Kitz Craver]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The fact that a storm that tracks the way this does has boundary layer issues to start is ridiculous. 

Yeah but wasn’t H7 a bit too far north on some of these runs? For southerners?

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Kitz Craver said:

Yeah but wasn’t H7 a bit too far north on some of these runs? For southerners?

Different issue…h7 track is mostly independent of antecedent airmass. I say “mostly” because a really cold antecedent airmass would probably force things a little south even aloft. 
 

The problem so often the last two years has been basically no good high to the north. And the couple times we’ve had a decent high, it wasn’t a fresh airmass. 

[Massplow]

What are we looking at for onset and end times now ?

[DJln491]

Update from box

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

8 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Yeah but wasn’t H7 a bit too far north on some of these runs? For southerners?

H7 tracking overhead will result in shitty snowgrowth for a time so if that happens, which euro/gfs indicate, then toss the clowns. 

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, DJln491 said:

Update from box

Taking em up 

[subdude]

Looks like We're all in for a nice storm. Unless someone dryslots. 

[CoastalWx]

8-12 seems high on the coast. The 12” especially.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Aggressive move by BOX

[ORH_wxman]

Hrrr is pound town for CT Tuesday morning. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Hrrr is pound town for CT Tuesday morning. 

Interesting mesos are se of globals. I don’t remember that happening in SS coastals. 

[qg_omega]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Hrrr is pound town for CT Tuesday morning. 

Pounding grass?

[Damage In Tolland]

Crushed right to coast 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

Pounding grass?

 

 

Still very confidently going with that ICON run that had no warning snow south of route 2?