Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

Hoping to get some of that magic back at 00z.

It's totally within the realm....we just need a slightly more proficient phase.... but like Will said, no way do you forecast that right now.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Good a map as I’ve seen IMO

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Eastern Brooklyn Weather

Lmao…Ukie is a joke.

He’d be posting Weather forecasts as he throws the book at people, cuz the Euro shows rain for Brooklyn NY in winter climo. 

[The 4 Seasons]

9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lmao…Ukie is a joke.

He’d be posting Weather forecasts as he throws the book at people, cuz the Euro shows rain for Brooklyn NY in winter climo. 

still don't understand how thats the 2nd best scoring model. I know it's at H5, but still...it's wildly all over the place like every storm

[WinterWolf]

23 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

still don't understand how thats the 2nd best scoring model. I know it's at H5, but still...it's wildly all over the place like every storm

That’s kind of like saying the METS are the second best baseball team in NY.  Ya they are, but they are behind most every other team also, and still suck.  The model is sub par period.  I’m sure somebody will show some H5 score from Nepal..but I’ll discard it. 

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

Both the NAM and GFS have solutions that don't appear to my eye that they should have as sharp a cut off on snowfall on the cold side of the precip shield as some of the clowns are showing. Probably goes without saying as they typically aren't dynamic in snowfall ratio.

Forecast soundings show that the column around the chicken coops is mostly around -10C, serviceable for dendrites (and Dendrite). There are also some steeper lapse rates in the region of lift that could give a little boost. All in all it looks like a higher ratio potential on the north side, that could smooth out the gradient in snow totals. 

H7 front right over the bamboo. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

H7 front right over the bamboo. 

That works for my locale in NW MA with the inland deformation banding. 

[tunafish]

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

H7 front right over the bamboo. 

Up here, too (if I'm interpreting correctly).

[dendrite]

17 minutes ago, tunafish said:

Up here, too (if I'm interpreting correctly).

18z Euro has the H7 front up here as well. Axis of dilatation in red and the 3hr QPF following that image…

[Ginx snewx]

CCB is massive. Cape Cod blizzard conditions.

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

CCB is massive. Cape Cod blizzard conditions.

How long before they flip to snow? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I hope we don't get one band bear the pike and another up near Dendrite.....I could see that.

[dryslot]

Mid level magic.

[40/70 Benchmark]

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Yea it’s phasing quicker. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea it’s phasing quicker. 

Massive CCB. Slow this bitch down.

[Snowcrazed71]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nice... Looks like it has ticked south a bit.. brings the 5" range snows to the CT shore and gives us around Hartford a good 10-12! Nice precip spread throughout the area

[Hazey]

That euro run is a beast. Sub 970 at 72hrs. Weird that the Icon and euro have been most aggressive and pretty steady. Odd combo if it comes to fruition. Looks great for you guys. Especially for the have nots so far.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea it’s phasing quicker. 

That run is more intense than 12z even, but what made that run nots is that it appeared to almost get captured a bit.....look how much slower it exits in the 12z than any other run....that is huge when you're snowing 2"/hr.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Massive CCB. Slow this bitch down.

 

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That run is more intense than 12z even, but what made that run nuts is that it appeared to almost get captured a bit.....look how much slower it exits in the 12z than any other run....that is huge when you're snowing 2"/hr.

 

[78Blizzard]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The Euro is the only model showing more snow on the Kuchie than the 10-1 map for EMA areas.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Nice... Looks like it has ticked south a bit.. brings the 5" range snows to the CT shore and gives us around Hartford a good 10-12! Nice precip spread throughout the area

Its not really south...I think that faster more proficient N stream insert helped you a bit.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, 78Blizzard said:

The Euro is the only model showing more snow on the Kuchie than the 10-1 map for EMA areas.

Its because its so dynamic.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That run is more intense than 12z even, but what made that run nots is that it appeared to almost get captured a bit.....look how much slower it exits in the 12z than any other run....that is huge when you're snowing 2"/hr.

Yea great look for you guys. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea great look for you guys. 

You do fine.

[Snowcrazed71]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea great look for you guys. 

Does well over by you as well!

[WinterWolf]

Morphing. Slowing down some perhaps. Wind being introduced.  I’ll take my 10” and be happy. 

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You do fine.

He’s so jaded…ya hate to see it. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

H5 is closed by 18z Tuesday....12z didn't even do that. But for whatever reason, 12z was so slow....

[dendrite]

South coast gets into a little danger here the past couple of euro runs. 2m concerns aside, the dryslot and H7 0C hug the coastline for a bit after an initial thump. Then it’s back to some snow in the ccb as the mid level low passes. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yea, I think the more phased solution offers less thermal issues and more dry slot issues.