Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

lol..everyone is a pro.  Nobody really knows jack. Until the next run. 

I mean that’s the hobby part of this..is to try to figure it out and discuss. Otherwise, why do we spend so much time on here?

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh, I’m just confirming what other people are in Man I don’t really have an opinion on that icon model fact I wasn’t really impressed with it last year. I heard it stated that it’s supposedly doing better this year, but I almost feel like people are making that narrative up to satisfy needing it to verify Whenever it has a deep blue black snow shield 

honestly I thought it has been doing ok this year

[ineedsnow]

GFS holding

[OceanStWx]

NAM still trying to give some congrats to Dendrite. Big band, subby, and then central NH?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Gfs coming in hot…

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Gfs coming in hot…

Hot as in rain ☔️ ? I’m only out to 39

[dryslot]

Another tic or so north on the 0z GFS.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Hot as in rain ☔️ 

It’s amped but not a rainer lol. 

[Snowcrazed71]

Hour 66 has some heavy Snow throughout Ct

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Little further N but not zonked. Everyone still does ok.

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s amped but not a rainer lol. 

Ok not bad just loaded for me

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

Glad to see a model spreading the wealth without picking others' pockets (as far as I can tell)

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ok not bad just loaded for me

It’s teetering but there’s enough confluence that even with more n/s interaction we’re not toast.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

GFS solution would make most in SNE happy.

[WinterWolf]

I’ll take my 12+ thanks. Steady as she goes. So dam consistent.

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

Canadian still not very interested, lol. Edit: Credit where credit's due, it does appear to be shifting in the "correct" direction. Looks like the 12z UKMET now.

[RDRY]

Does the CMC rank at the bottom of the big-four globals? It's consistently dreadful.

[tunafish]

Almost to me, verbatim.

13 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

NAM still trying to give some congrats to Dendrite. Big band, subby, and then central NH?

 

[OceanStWx]

Both the NAM and GFS have solutions that don't appear to my eye that they should have as sharp a cut off on snowfall on the cold side of the precip shield as some of the clowns are showing. Probably goes without saying as they typically aren't dynamic in snowfall ratio.

Forecast soundings show that the column around the chicken coops is mostly around -10C, serviceable for dendrites (and Dendrite). There are also some steeper lapse rates in the region of lift that could give a little boost. All in all it looks like a higher ratio potential on the north side, that could smooth out the gradient in snow totals. 

[78Blizzard]

2 minutes ago, RDRY said:

Does the CMC rank at the bottom of the big-four globals? It's consistently dreadful.

It was keeping with the trend, though, as it's further N than 12z.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I’ll take my 12+ thanks. Steady as she goes. So dam consistent.

Ya gfs has been so consistent . Would be awesome for it to score a coup 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya gfs has been so consistent . Would be awesome for it to score a coup 

H7 keeps trending north though. Looks like it tracked along the southern half of the state so we’ll need a bump or two south tomorrow. 

[dryslot]

The qpf field will be NW of H7 and not as tight as modeled.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

5 minutes ago, RDRY said:

Does the CMC rank at the bottom of the big-four globals? It's consistently dreadful.

It's particularly maddening in the winter.  It is often showing big snow hits in the Northeast that fade as you get inside of 4 days.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

H7 keeps trending north though. Looks like it tracked along the southern half of the state so we’ll need a bump or two south tomorrow. 

Def would love a tic south at go time from this 

 

[RDRY]

6 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

It was keeping with the trend, though, as it's further N than 12z.

Yeah, but it HAS to adjust at this short lead time -- and it's still doing it grudgingly. It was so far off (apparently) though that it's verification score must be really poor.

[40/70 Benchmark]

44 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

 

Looks just like the 12z EURO, except a bit stingier over SE NW/SW ME

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

H7 keeps trending north though. Looks like it tracked along the southern half of the state so we’ll need a bump or two south tomorrow. 

You know I want to see you snow more than most here because we are both often on the fringes. However, I don't have a lot of confidence in seeing a strengthening trend in confluence as we move closer.  Tics N may still be in play. 

I really just want a region wide 6"+ for everyone. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

38 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Kind of like the HRRR.

That thing nailed 1/7.....I remember I was laughing at it showing 15-20" over me as the storm was starting.....19" later.