Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, dryslot said:

The eventual intensity of the slp holds the key to the outcome.

Loving the look

[Patrick-02540]

31 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Way too much worry and consternation .. This is warning snows to the coast. Messenger pleading with you 

I agree.  6-9 all the way to CT coast. 10-14 above the coastal plain.  

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

I'll go out on a limb then and say that we will overachieve this time.

South bump coming 0z ( I'm praying )

[NeonPeon]

People on the coast aren't "worried." They have functioning pattern recognition. 

There's a reason nws almost always have a wait and see approach with liminal areas with respect to watches/warnings. It's the same reason why my cross country skis are encrusted with dust.

[8611Blizz]

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, Patrick-02540 said:

I agree.  6-9 all the way to CT coast. 10-14 above the coastal plain.  

Yup 

[NorEastermass128]

This will get folks excited to ski during Feb vacation.  The snow isn’t going anywhere fast after it falls. Winter period incoming and then let’s flip the switch to days like today once we indeed flip. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Some are delusional with beer. The EURO (aka the new NAM) has ticked 100 miles north today in 2 runs .. We will just follow GFS which seems to be more stable .. Stay the course for now, EURO simply can't be trusted check out the run to run consistency at every layer just putrid..

[8611Blizz]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Some are delusional with beer. The EURO (aka the new NAM) has ticked 100 miles north today in 2 runs .. We will just follow GFS which seems to be more stable .. 

That's just wrong...

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Some are delusional with bear. The EURO (aka the new NAM) has ticked 100 miles north today in 2 runs .. We will just follow GFS which seems to be more stable .. 

Yea. I never bought the strike zone being SoP anyway. Icon was actually the furthest nw too and the euro is ticking to it. Not a good sign for the southern half of CT 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

8 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

Good map. Basically what I’d have if I was making a forecast 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just a small grip but I think 6-12” if a ridiculous range. 6” Of snow is a lot different than 12”

[tavwtby]

what's causing the north tics, confluence weakening or the N stream pulling and phasing more?

[cleetussnow]

1 minute ago, 8611Blizz said:

That's just wrong...

Waaaay too early to discount a north trend, especially since the GFS is also trended north, though not as dramatic.  The storm sure can resolve 100 miles more dramatic, and the GFS can do that on its own whim.  

[MJO812]

Just now, tavwtby said:

what's causing the north tics, confluence weakening or the N stream pulling and phasing more?

2nd part

[ineedsnow]

Heavy wet snow looks likely.. power issues?

[Sey-Mour Snow]

7 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

That's just wrong...

It feels horribly wrong but it's 100% true with this storm.. EURO has been jumpy all season so it's no surprise.. 

Funny I might owe an apology to the ICON if it's ends up right.. 18z EURO a lot closer to ICON than any other guidance is.. 

[8611Blizz]

Just now, cleetussnow said:

Waaaay too early to discount a north trend, especially since the GFS is also trended north, though not as dramatic.  The storm sure can resolve 100 miles more dramatic, and the GFS can do that on its own whim.  

Understood. the post is more about the new euro being inferior to the GFS. I still find it hard to believe but I guess it's true..

[8611Blizz]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Just a small grip but I think 6-12” if a ridiculous range. 6” Of snow is a lot different than 12”

It is lazy but it's also early so they can always adjust upward.

[dendrite]

Lol the GFS could be the exact same run 3 days in a row and it would still probably make a move before go time. 

[DavisStraight]

5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Just a small grip but I think 6-12” if a ridiculous range. 6” Of snow is a lot different than 12”

But you would make a map just like that?

[Patrick-02540]

3 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

Understood. the post is more about the new euro being inferior to the GFS. I still find it hard to believe but I guess it's true..

Far inferior to the GFS in this region, in terms of timing, temps, and overall setup.  

[cleetussnow]

4 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

Understood. the post is more about the new euro being inferior to the GFS. I still find it hard to believe but I guess it's true..

I think many here would like to have the old euro back.  Dr. No.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Regarding the wind, a couple of days ago it looked to be pretty calm on the models I looked at.  Obviously dynamics etc look a bit better. So that’s something to look forward to. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Lol the GFS could be the exact same run 3 days in a row and it would still probably make a move before go time. 

HA true!

[Modfan2]

13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. I never bought the strike zone being SoP anyway. Icon was actually the furthest nw too and the euro is ticking to it. Not a good sign for the southern half of CT 

Dave to Ray is the place to be, has been all winter. 

[tunafish]

Save a horse amirite?

[dryslot]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Lol the GFS could be the exact same run 3 days in a row and it would still probably make a move before go time. 

Yeah, No changes inside hr 60.

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. I expect it keep ticking north too. North of 84 is safe.

I’d love for it to be safe for north of 89. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, mreaves said:

I’d love for it to be safe for north of 89. 

A couple more ticks and it will be.