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Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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CT Rain
CT Rain

15.2" in West Hartford here at the station. Nuts.

RUNNAWAYICEBERG
RUNNAWAYICEBERG
Typhoon Tip
Typhoon Tip

You guys are acting like your on the spectrum with this shit at this point.  It's that bad - wtf

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
  On 2/10/2024 at 9:24 PM, CoastalWx said:

It should move pretty quick, I think

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yeah that's what I'm thinking...that's why I think it is going to be difficult to exceed a foot with this, though not impossible. Right now though I'm thinking 10-16'' for max zone but I'll do a forecast tomorrow. 

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Snowcrazed71

Snowcrazed71

Posted
Posted
  On 2/10/2024 at 9:14 PM, WinterWolf said:

Ya, I’m not thinking so either. Just makes you laugh when just on Thursday folks were saying how come we don’t get wind with these storms lately?  And BOX is hitting the wind in their watches…so I just found it ironic. 

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I wasn't able to come on for most of the day. Are we still looking okay here and our area of CT?

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
  On 2/10/2024 at 9:28 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Only 6 hour intervals...12Z

 

Screenshot 2024-02-10 at 4.28.07 PM.png

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I really hope there won't be much subsidence south of the band. Haven't divulged too much into those details yet but that is always a concern. I am also a bit nervous by this placement b/c the most intense banding (I think in this case) would be displaced towards the northwest side of this fronto...so the highest totals would be like S VT/S NH....then south of there could have several different issues going on.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
  On 2/10/2024 at 9:28 PM, CT Rain said:

2m temps are a bit warm on the Euro for valley/shore at the onset. Kevin would be fine of course. 

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Yeah agreed and I’m not even really counting a few drops at the onset for a place like HFD down to MMK before they wetbulb…when the real precip gets going, it’s going to be snow unless we see some drastic change in guidance over the next 24-36h. 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
  On 2/10/2024 at 9:31 PM, weatherwiz said:

I really hope there won't be much subsidence south of the band. Haven't divulged too much into those details yet but that is always a concern. I am also a bit nervous by this placement b/c the most intense banding (I think in this case) would be displaced towards the northwest side of this fronto...so the highest totals would be like S VT/S NH....then south of there could have several different issues going on.

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No way to pinpoint exactly where this sets up, especially at this stage.  ‘13 in the February blizzard, the death band was forecast to set up over eastern/northeast areas, and it came back this way.  That was not forecast even the day of.  So I mean we can take a guess of course, but in the end it’s just a guess. 

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Sey-Mour Snow

Sey-Mour Snow

Posted
Posted
  On 2/10/2024 at 9:31 PM, weatherwiz said:

I really hope there won't be much subsidence south of the band. Haven't divulged too much into those details yet but that is always a concern. I am also a bit nervous by this placement b/c the most intense banding (I think in this case) would be displaced towards the northwest side of this fronto...so the highest totals would be like S VT/S NH....then south of there could have several different issues going on.

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Wait another cycle and it will be somewhere totally different . Last run 700mv low was in central Jersey . Could either go back south or end up over BDL next run 

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Prismshine Productions

Prismshine Productions

Posted
Posted

Current map and disco from Albany:


***We show warning level snow amount of 6 to 9 inches through our eastern Catskills, mid-Hudson Valley, southern Berkshire, central and southern Taconics, and Litchfield County where there is higher confidence for the stronger snow banding to impact and show a sharp northern cut-off around the Capital District where amounts quickly drop off to 3 to 5 inches. Even less for areas north and west of Albany with just coating to 1 inch. We therefore issued a Winter Storm Watch for the aforementioned areas in the 6-9 inch range and will hold off on areas further north where there is still uncertainty on the northern extent of QPF. If confidence increases the precip shield extends as far north and west as the GFS/EC and their ensembles, we will need to expand winter storm watches.***786c3970b9ced1a72afa4143fded630b.jpg

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
  On 2/10/2024 at 9:35 PM, WinterWolf said:

No way to pinpoint exactly where this sets up, especially at this stage.  ‘13 in the February blizzard, the death band was forecast to set up over eastern/northeast areas, and it came back this way.  That was not forecast even the day of.  So I mean we can take a guess of course, but in the end it’s just a guess. 

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  On 2/10/2024 at 9:35 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Wait another cycle and it will be somewhere totally different . Last run 700mv low was in central Jersey . Could either go back south or end up over BDL next run 

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Yes, there is a great deal of uncertainty with it and there is no way to know for sure right now exactly where it holds up. That's why I've held off on making any type of forecast at this point. But what I'm looking at is as we get closer, how will the modeled band be in relation to what occurs? My thinking is at verification time, the banding is going to end up being northwest of where the models are pinpointing.  Looking at where the models show the highest QPF axis 12 hours out and saying that is the sweet spot may not work out that way. 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
  On 2/10/2024 at 9:31 PM, weatherwiz said:

I really hope there won't be much subsidence south of the band. Haven't divulged too much into those details yet but that is always a concern. I am also a bit nervous by this placement b/c the most intense banding (I think in this case) would be displaced towards the northwest side of this fronto...so the highest totals would be like S VT/S NH....then south of there could have several different issues going on.

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Yes

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