Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[Chrisrotary12]

Has anyone ever seen DIT and The Pope in the same room? 

[Prismshine Productions]

18z NAM

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[kdxken]

  On 2/10/2024 at 7:40 PM, MJO812 said:

It's just amazing how these storms always trend north.  No point staying up late for models showing snow here past 144 hours.

I guess the only way it will snow here anymore is if it starts snowing in Florida at 144 hours.

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Unfortunately no snow here at TPC Tampa. I'll keep you updated.

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

  On 2/10/2024 at 8:45 PM, mahk_webstah said:

For up here to get more than 6 inches I need to see more than just the euro and the Germans.

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For a minute it really looked like the 12z GFS was going to do it. Decided it was done gaining latitude right at the last second. Maybe 18z will throw us a bone.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 2/10/2024 at 8:42 PM, CoastalWx said:

 I don’t expect that but we hope.

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If you can crank 1”+ of QPF then you’re good for at least 8” of snow imho. Look at how shallow the near-freezing layer is at the sfc. 

Unless this zonks another 50 miles north, I’d feel ok on eastern coast near BOS and immediate south shore. It’s not like one of those thermal profiles where it’s 0C to -1C for hours at 925mb and you’re hoping to tick it another 1C colder. It arrogantly goes to like -3 pretty quickly. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/10/2024 at 8:16 PM, Prismshine Productions said:

Wxbell EPS only has the 500mb vort and 850mb temp unfortunately

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@weatherwiz

[CoastalWx]

  On 2/10/2024 at 8:52 PM, ORH_wxman said:

If you can crank 1”+ of QPF then you’re good for at least 8” of snow imho. Look at how shallow the near-freezing layer is at the sfc. 

Unless this zonks another 50 miles north, I’d feel ok on eastern coast near BOS and immediate south shore. It’s not like one of those thermal profiles where it’s 0C to -1C for hours at 925mb and you’re hoping to tick it another 1C colder. It arrogantly goes to like -3 pretty quickly. 

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Yeah, QPF bomb will help like the euro has. And we are also CAA too. Just not a fan of the airmass ahead of this. 

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 2/10/2024 at 8:25 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wow

 

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I'm actually surprised HFD isn't inside the 12" line from what I saw of that run... But, the other school is that Tolland is also safely left out of the party/cool kids which makes a great deal of intuitive sense so yeah...

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Box going 4-10” with wind for the watch . Upton going 6-10” most in hills.  Power outages will be a major issue with wind and on the southern extent of significant snow. 

[radarman]

BOX weirdly left W Hampshire and W Franklin Co out of the watches.  

[WinterWolf]

  On 2/10/2024 at 9:06 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Box going 4-10” with wind 

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Lol…a couple days ago there was zero wind. 

[CoastalWx]

Not sure it will be all that windy inland

[ORH_wxman]

18z Reggie bumped solidly N too. Still decently south of Euro/GFS but it gets warning snows up to near the pike or just S. 

[WinterWolf]

  On 2/10/2024 at 9:11 PM, CoastalWx said:

Not sure it will be all that windy inland

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Ya, I’m not thinking so either. Just makes you laugh when just on Thursday folks were saying how come we don’t get wind with these storms lately?  And BOX is hitting the wind in their watches…so I just found it ironic. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 2/10/2024 at 9:12 PM, ORH_wxman said:

18z Reggie bumped solidly N too. Still decently south of Euro/GFS but it gets warning snows up to near the pike or just S. 

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Would be a widespread outage for southern ct verbatim 12” of snow at 33 degrees

[ORH_wxman]

ICON starting to sober up too. Came south a good tick but still north of other models. 

[CoastalWx]

  On 2/10/2024 at 9:14 PM, WinterWolf said:

Ya, I’m not thinking so either. Just makes you laugh when just on Thursday folks were saying how come we don’t get wind with these storms lately?  And BOX is hitting the wind in their watches…so I just found it ironic. 

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It’s just a generic 40 mph they blanketed the watch with. I don’t think they’re going to get into that kind of granularity for details yet.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 2/10/2024 at 9:16 PM, CoastalWx said:

It’s just a generic 40 mph they blanketed the watch with. I don’t think they’re going to get into that kind of granularity for details yet.

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Ya would be interesting I think we can get close to blizzard criteria for immediate shore . Should be quite the scene Tuesday with heavy wet snow 35-45 mph wind for coasts and almost low dark visibility . 

[Damage In Tolland]

Does the stronger storm bring the paste up to the pike now? 

[weatherwiz]

bufkit has some decent winds down at HVN 

[CoastalWx]

  On 2/10/2024 at 9:18 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya would be interesting I think we can get close to blizzard criteria for immediate shore . Should be quite the scene Tuesday with heavy wet snow 35-45 mph wind for coasts and almost low dark visibility . 

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Maybe briefly as it drops below 32? 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 2/10/2024 at 9:19 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Does the stronger storm bring the paste up to the pike now? 

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No, euro actually draws in pretty cold air on that type of solution. I don’t think you’re going to have any paste at all save maybe the first 2-3 hours when rates are not heavy yet. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

The demon-death band is just NW of this H7 fronto

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/10/2024 at 9:21 PM, ORH_wxman said:

No, euro actually draws in pretty cold air on that type of solution. I don’t think you’re going to have any paste at all save maybe the first 2-3 hours when rates are not heavy yet. 

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Its phasing with the N stream more, so its a more intense storm with more cold.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 2/10/2024 at 9:21 PM, ORH_wxman said:

No, euro actually draws in pretty cold air on that type of solution. I don’t think you’re going to have any paste at all save maybe the first 2-3 hours when rates are not heavy yet. 

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Someone was saying all of CT started as rain lol

[weatherwiz]

  On 2/10/2024 at 9:21 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The demon-death band is just NW of this H7 fronto

 

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what does 15z look like?

[WinterWolf]

  On 2/10/2024 at 9:22 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Someone was saying all of CT started as rain lol

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That was on the ICON…it’s come south already since then anyway. 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 2/10/2024 at 9:22 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Someone was saying all of CT started as rain lol

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On what model? The ICON?

[CoastalWx]

  On 2/10/2024 at 9:22 PM, weatherwiz said:

what does 15z look like?

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It should move pretty quick, I think

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 2/10/2024 at 9:23 PM, ORH_wxman said:

On what model? The ICON?

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Euro . Someone posted it