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Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one


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  On 2/10/2024 at 7:34 PM, dryslot said:

The partial phasing, as opposed to a full phase was discussed yesterday which would be problematic for many if it was a full one a little bit of something is better than a lot in this instance, there has not been any run so far that have fully phased this this so I’m doubting that that’s even gonna happen

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The GEM did Wednesday...the run that gave most of Maine 3'.

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That N arc of this cyclone is maturing while the circulation is leaving the Bite water area which puts ~ E CT-SE NH deep into it IN TIME for a change...

Not sure you can move a sub 980 mb low across the lower Islands without a wind burst into the eastern 1/3 of SNE.

2-M temps crash from 32 to 25 for places like Lowell down to Holden and Worcester while there's heavy fall rates that are highly correlated when crossing up the 850 -- 700mb flow directions creating all kind of positive shear inducing lift.  At that time there's a coherent 300 mb entrance region fanning out at between 66 and 78 hours - no wonder a massive QPF loaded  CCB head is passing through.

This Euro run is just a text book for heavy snow from HFD-BED.   I'm seeing very similar structures/arguments in the recent GFS runs too.

Also, not sure there's enough time for wind momentum transfer but there is an astro high tide(s) Monday and Tuesday .. I think that 1pm one on Tuesday might be vulnerable. 

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  On 2/10/2024 at 7:18 PM, weatherwiz said:
Does anyone who have Weatherbell (or maybe Storm vista) have access to EPS at the 700mb level? Weathermodels doesn't have it but I am curious to see what the EPS do with the mid-levels
Wxbell EPS only has the 500mb vort and 850mb temp unfortunately

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

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  On 2/10/2024 at 8:30 PM, 8611Blizz said:

These number's are bananas. Unless the time fame is completely off you would need sky high ratios to achieve them. 18 24" :clown:

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Euro was spitting out 1.4-1.7” of QPF over a chunk of central/eastern MA…so ratios really don’t need to be crazy to get 18”+ on that. Is it right? Meh, prob overdone but it’s within the envelope of possibilities given go w dynamic the Euro was aloft. 

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