Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[weathafella]

Right about now a little messenger shuffle wouldn’t hurt for some of us.

[weathafella]

Amongst the globals, it’s GFS/Euro vs CMC/uncle.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

  On 2/10/2024 at 4:32 PM, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

GEFS, FWIW

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Is any of that the ensembles moving the storm faster?  That doesn't help totals much, of course, but maybe keeps the R-S line fairly stationary.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 2/10/2024 at 5:12 PM, weathafella said:

Amongst the globals, it’s GFS/Euro vs CMC/uncle.

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Yeah tossing the mesos until we’re another 24 hours closer. 

[weatherwiz]

  On 2/10/2024 at 5:08 PM, MJO812 said:

So you think this will be amped ?

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I am starting to like the increasing consistency with the GFS/Euro, at least with some of the pieces involved. Not sure or really interested what the snow maps or showing. Based on how this would likely evolve, however, I would think that the best banding and heaviest snow is going to be quite north and west of the sfc low...so even if there was a track which favored say NYC or the south coast, the heaviest banding would likely be north. I think things tighten up too late to really get the banding to collapse south towards the center until eastern areas. 

[brooklynwx99]

I would argue that the ECMWF is a bit closer to the UKMET than the GFS is. GEPS is also farther south

[weatherwiz]

  On 2/10/2024 at 5:16 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah tossing the mesos until we’re another 24 hours closer. 

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The only use mesos will be with this one is helping pinpoint banding and intensity of banding. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 2/10/2024 at 5:11 PM, weathafella said:

Right about now a little messenger shuffle wouldn’t hurt for some of us.

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If that’s going to happen,  probably won’t start to see that until tomorrow?

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

  On 2/10/2024 at 5:14 PM, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Is any of that the ensembles moving the storm faster?  That doesn't help totals much, of course, but maybe keeps the R-S line fairly stationary.

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Here's the clown printouts compared. Not as drastic as the apparent ensemble shift would indicate.

[CoastalWx]

  On 2/10/2024 at 5:03 PM, 8611Blizz said:

That would be good. That put's us around daybreak for accumulations to get going.

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It’s definitely after daybreak. Probably mid morning.

[weathafella]

  On 2/10/2024 at 5:40 PM, CoastalWx said:

It’s definitely after daybreak. Probably mid morning.

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The later the better in my view.  I don't like getting up much before 10 but I can tolerate 9ish.

[HoarfrostHubb]

My only complaint involves my ski club. We will probably get a school snow day which means all clubs etc are cancelled.  So that pushes us two weeks into Morch. 

[ineedsnow]

Euro agrees with the GFS

[Patrick-02540]

Euro seems to like the GFS now.  

[weathafella]

Damn what a crushing on the euro!  And cold too!

[dryslot]

That's a big jump north on the Euro

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

More phasing. Deeper and colder. Smashing incoming…

[weathafella]

[MJO812]

Uggh I'm going to stuff my face and cry. 

[dryslot]

Started out pretty warm in SCT but when it flipped that was +SN. That's getting close to warning snows up here.

[ineedsnow]

  On 2/10/2024 at 6:10 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

More phasing. Deeper and colder. Smashing incoming…

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yup guessing the southern models will come north later on tonight

[Damage In Tolland]

Euro stays the course. Splitting hairs but a bit SE

[wx2fish]

Thats a real juicy run for most 

[EastonSN+]

  On 2/10/2024 at 6:10 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

More phasing. Deeper and colder. Smashing incoming…

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Kind of a big cut back for coastal plain.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 2/10/2024 at 6:13 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Euro stays the course. Splitting hairs but a bit SE

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lmao its way north 

[weathafella]

  On 2/10/2024 at 6:17 PM, EastonSN+ said:

Kind of a big cut back for coastal plain.

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Depends on which plain.  A big improvement for pike region coastal areas in MA.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Playing with fire along 84 a bit initially but I’d hedge for less stream interaction on future runs.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 2/10/2024 at 6:13 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Euro stays the course. Splitting hairs but a bit SE

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It looks a bit more north to me. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Ray just sitting back smiling after a 25" dopamine drip.. thats probably the best run yet for the entire New England forum 3-6" south shore that 12-18" just inland for most with an 18-24" stripe in all of NE mass

[weatherwiz]

This thing is hauling. It may be difficult for anyone to achieve more than a foot. I was thinking a 12-16 or 12-18 was certainly doable but that is going to be very difficult I think.