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Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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CT Rain
CT Rain

15.2" in West Hartford here at the station. Nuts.

RUNNAWAYICEBERG
RUNNAWAYICEBERG
Typhoon Tip
Typhoon Tip

You guys are acting like your on the spectrum with this shit at this point.  It's that bad - wtf

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
  On 2/10/2024 at 1:26 PM, The 4 Seasons said: 
BOX: 
Given there is still uncertainty on the intensity/track of the low
sliding through we are also somewhat uncertain on the exact extent
of the strong winds. Overall NAEFS/EPS situational awareness tables
are quite meh.

Alright which one of you guys did this?

Never seen 'meh' in an AFD before lol

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None of those guys actually look at soundings anymore. It’s like Steve and charts now.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

There’s still like 3 days for figure QPF but I think someone in a band will do really well with this bumping up against the confluence. 
 

Where it’s cold over the interior, you’re gonna have to watch ratios too if we get a crosshair sig…someone could get a foot from like 0.80” of QPF if they’re going 15 to 1. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
  On 2/10/2024 at 1:30 PM, ORH_wxman said:

There’s still like 3 days for figure QPF but I think someone in a band will do really well with this bumping up against the confluence. 
 

Where it’s cold over the interior, you’re gonna have to watch ratios too if we get a crosshair sig…someone could get a foot from like 0.80” of QPF if they’re going 15 to 1. 

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There’s going to be a 20 mile wide zone extended WSW-ENE or so that gets dumped.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
  On 2/10/2024 at 1:32 PM, CoastalWx said:

There’s going to be a 20 mile wide zone extended WSW-ENE or so that gets dumped.

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Yeah and if you’re getting huge omega in that band, I’m thinking someone it gonna go 15 or 18 to 1 on ratios for a chunk of it. So I think that needs to be kept in mind….a little early to obsess over soundings, but sometimes you’ll see people say “what a model bust” if they get a 17” fluff bomb but they ended up with like an inch of QPF just like guidance was saying. 
 

On the flip side, you’ll see it too if they go 7 to 1 ratios but the QPF was still accurate. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
  On 2/10/2024 at 1:37 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah and if you’re getting huge omega in that band, I’m thinking someone it gonna go 15 or 18 to 1 on ratios for a chunk of it. So I think that needs to be kept in mind….a little early to obsess over soundings, but sometimes you’ll see people say “what a model bust” if they get a 17” fluff bomb but they ended up with like an inch of QPF just like guidance was saying. 
 

On the flip side, you’ll see it too if they go 7 to 1 ratios but the QPF was still accurate. 

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Euro smokes Berks into SW NH. 
 Early guess here is like 4-7 or so. Unless nam temps verify lol. 
 

But yeah this will have one of those intense bands the lasts a few hours and smokes 3”+/hr at times. Probably more in the first half of the storm since the second half of it should start to pivot east.

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
  On 2/10/2024 at 1:37 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah and if you’re getting huge omega in that band, I’m thinking someone it gonna go 15 or 18 to 1 on ratios for a chunk of it. So I think that needs to be kept in mind….a little early to obsess over soundings, but sometimes you’ll see people say “what a model bust” if they get a 17” fluff bomb but they ended up with like an inch of QPF just like guidance was saying. 
 

On the flip side, you’ll see it too if they go 7 to 1 ratios but the QPF was still accurate. 

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@HoarfrostHubb

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted
  On 2/10/2024 at 1:42 PM, CoastalWx said:

Euro smokes Berks into SW NH. 
 Early guess here is like 4-7 or so. Unless nam temps verify lol. 
 

But yeah this will have one of those intense bands the lasts a few hours and smokes 3”+/hr at times. Probably more in the first half of the storm since the second half of it should start to pivot east.

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That band is oriented and pointed towards this direction. We’ll have to see how that develops on future runs. Probably the east north east motion will cut it off west of here and move it east south east.

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