Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[40/70 Benchmark]

[78Blizzard]

  On 2/10/2024 at 4:59 AM, CoastalWx said:

Gfs is warm in many areas. Definitely not like nam. 

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Showing its warm bias again.  It is 4-9°F warmer here than every other model at the onset.

[Torch Tiger]

  On 2/10/2024 at 4:44 AM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Tuesday morning disaster commute.

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it'll be fine

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

 

  On 2/10/2024 at 5:04 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

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I would draw a map very similar to this as my first call but extend the colors to the EMA coastline some more. 

[weathafella]

  On 2/10/2024 at 5:18 AM, Torch Tiger said:

it'll be fine

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Especially if you work from home.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/10/2024 at 5:25 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

 

I would draw a map very similar to this as my first call but extend the colors to the EMA coastline some more. 

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NARCAN is great, but it can sometimes be too conservative near the coast. 

[The 4 Seasons]

  On 2/10/2024 at 5:38 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

NARCAN is great, but it can sometimes be too conservative near the coast. 

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I'm quickly noticing that

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/10/2024 at 5:46 AM, The 4 Seasons said:

I'm quickly noticing that

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No tool is perfect, though...its the best snowfall algorithm there is IMHO.

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

  On 2/10/2024 at 5:50 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No tool is perfect, though...its the best snowfall algorithm there is IMHO.

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I do find the NARCAN maps to be pretty damn accurate, but why in God's name did they choose the color scheme they did? It's like they went out of their way to make it as ugly as possible.

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

Euro is lookin' good.

[weathafella]

Pretty steady with little wobbles here and there.  Euro seems a tad colder vs gfs tonight.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Euro colder and a tick se maybe. 

 

[weathafella]

Euro H7 closed low goes over LI through the outer cape.  Could be some fun up around NH/MA border.

[weathafella]

Midlevels really look conducive to a big number somewhere between Kevin and Ray 

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

Here's a EURO Kuchie closeup for the Connecticut weenie crowd.

[ice1972]

  On 2/10/2024 at 6:24 AM, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

Here's a EURO Kuchie closeup for the Connecticut weenie crowd.

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Oh yes please yes please yes please……in the A hole all night……

[40/70 Benchmark]

I like when the clown map bullseye is over se MA....that's where it was March 2018.

[40/70 Benchmark]

[40/70 Benchmark]

Its actually a bit slower to exit than 12z in addition to being a hair se.

Interesting....it's hanging the s stream back a bit and it's stronger/more discrete from N stream.

[CoastalWx]

Nam is still cold and south. 6z gfs looks a little colder vs 00z too. Good to see. 

[moneypitmike]

06 GFS is a crowd favorite.

[Damage In Tolland]

Has Dryslot been posting?

[The 4 Seasons]

6Z GEFS probs went way up from 00Z. Now a 20-30% chance of 12+ across much of SNE

[dendrite]

  On 2/10/2024 at 10:57 AM, moneypitmike said:

06 GFS is a crowd favorite.

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Horrible. Just enough to be a PITA up here. I’d like at least another decent tick south or north. Give me 8+ or <2. 

[mahk_webstah]

  On 2/10/2024 at 11:34 AM, dendrite said:

Horrible. Just enough to be a PITA up here. I’d like at least another decent tick south or north. Give me 8+ or <2. 

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Still time for either.  Doesn’t feel to me like a big enough north shift is coming so yeah 2-4 pita.   Maybe not enough to snowblow so could be icy by late week on the driveway.  A lot of open area melting today and tonight, but the woods will retain I would think.

[moneypitmike]

  On 2/10/2024 at 11:34 AM, dendrite said:

Horrible. Just enough to be a PITA up here. I’d like at least another decent tick south or north. Give me 8+ or <2. 

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Lots of time to shift.....we know how these go.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 2/10/2024 at 11:28 AM, The 4 Seasons said:

6Z GEFS probs went way up from 00Z. Now a 20-30% chance of 12+ across much of SNE

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Poundmehardtown

[Prismshine Productions]

  On 2/10/2024 at 11:52 AM, moneypitmike said:

Lots of time to shift.....we know how these go.

And 90% of the time it is wagons north

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[Damage In Tolland]

This one is pretty well locked in now. Confluence FTW 

[dendrite]

  On 2/10/2024 at 11:40 AM, mahk_webstah said:

Still time for either.  Doesn’t feel to me like a big enough north shift is coming so yeah 2-4 pita.   Maybe not enough to snowblow so could be icy by late week on the driveway.  A lot of open area melting today and tonight, but the woods will retain I would think.

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Still a fairly deep pack up here. If I was threatening open areas I’d be signing up for a 2-4 or 3-6 in advance of the cold shots coming to keep the fruit trees warm, but my nape has been sun kissed the past week and I have my sights set on spring. So the lower the precip right now the better. I want to minimize mud season this year.