Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Agree...I have been insinsuating as much, but that doesn't mean disaster points south as has been the case previously.

Yeah I think it will have a shitty temp proflle to start here so taking that into consideration. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh, yeah ... 'this storm's performance'     expectation-wise

I think it may waste a few hours at least to go from a mix to wetbulb down to 32. But they'll have 6-8 hrs to stack up. However, will depend on track obviously. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I think it will have a shitty temp proflle to start here so taking that into consideration. 

Use the NARCAN.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Also, I've been watching the NAM as this has been coming into the denser more physical sounding array over the Pac NW ... it seems the handling of the S/stream is reasonably consistent (perhaps slightly more robust), but what's actually been interesting more so is that the western 'elbow' of the N/stream dangles more precipitously as the S/stream is approaching 100W -

It's right out the end of the run, so ... obviously the real deterministic value here is lower.  But it does help the "analytic imagination" ( if you will...) to see how N/stream could be more involved in phasing.  I'd also point out that the ICON at 18z yesterday did show this feature phasing in - it's sort of a smaller sneaky S/W inject but that spun our cyclone down to 974 near Block Island when that happened and put a band of thunder snow over PVD...  Just thought I'd mention.

That run reminded me of 12/9/05 in that the banding was so tightly compact to the low pressure area.

[CoastalWx]

NAM is a stretched srn s/w though. That verbatim probably isn't all that dynamic.

[ORH_wxman]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM is a stretched srn s/w though. That verbatim probably isn't all that dynamic.

Yep that reminds me of the Ukie and GGEM last night. It’s further north than those two models but the idea of shearing the southern stream vort is similar. That’s definitely what we DONT want to see because then you end up with crappy rates and lower ceiling for the event. 

[Modfan2]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM is a stretched srn s/w though. That verbatim probably isn't all that dynamic.

All I can picture is the guy from the John Cusack movie Wild Crazy Summer sitting smoking listening to the radio waiting to win the contest; he is this board each model run!

[MJO812]

Rgem would also be south like the nam. Maybe slightly further north. 

[ORH_wxman]

RGEM looks a lot healthier with the shortwave than the NAM

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

RGEM looks a lot healthier with the shortwave than the NAM

Almost time for your favorite, the ICON.

[brooklynwx99]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Almost time for your favorite, the ICON.

the ICON sucks so bad. nobody would even care about it if it came out at 11:30 or something

[ORH_wxman]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Almost time for your favorite, the ICON.

Pretty zonked actually. 
 

 

[ineedsnow]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Pretty zonked actually. 
 

 

further north we take

[SouthCoastMA]

let the 12z north trends commence

[HoarfrostHubb]

It's everybody's darling until it poops the bed 24 hours out

[Spanks45]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pretty zonked actually. 
 

 

And the 6z high for us in CT is now over.....

Just kidding, its the icon...but i do thinknthis is coming north whether a last minute push or something earlier on. Hope the feeling is wrong, but having the bullseye, 3+ days out never bodes very well here.

[Typhoon Tip]

30 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pretty zonked actually. 
 

 

There are two things taking place along the cinema of this ICON solution that are interesting  - fwis

1 there's a subtle more N/stream plunge into the Lakes when the S/stream is nearing 90 W ...Instead of imposing confluence ... it rather lifts everything in the stream at that time on a more NE trajectory as opposed ENE.  It's veering the deep layer steering field within which the S/stream is embedded.  That takes the total cyclogen manifold on a closer pass...

2 ... the S/stream is like 5 measly units of power more robust, not very readily discernable... but crucially it hold onto more ability to mechanize said cyclogenesis...

We end up with a solid upper moderate/low end major ordeal ... 

The ICON has been flirting the two streams in one way or the other ... more so than other guidance to this point. But it hasn't been showing much continuity in doing so... by doing so in different ways. 

[Modfan2]

20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pretty zonked actually. 
 

 

Dave to Ray winter continues 

[mahk_webstah]

25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pretty zonked actually. 
 

 

Congrats Dendrite.

[qg_omega]

This is mostly rain or white rain for the coast, temps are awful with a spring elevation storm vibe yet again

[MJO812]

Just now, qg_omega said:

This is mostly rain or white rain for the coast, temps are awful with a spring elevation storm vibe yet again

[CT Rain]

1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

This is mostly rain or white rain for the coast, temps are awful with a spring elevation storm vibe yet again

Did you even look at anything or are you just trolling?

[ineedsnow]

GFS going to be nice

[MJO812]

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

This is mostly rain or white rain for the coast, temps are awful with a spring elevation storm vibe yet again

Even the posiitve snow depth change maps are laying down serval inches at the shore.

[Prismshine Productions]

Wow.

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Did you even look at anything or are you just trolling?

This is why he is 5PPD.

[RDRY]

Can't get these vorts to merge. 

 

 

[Krs4Lfe]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Heaviest precip centered around NYC metro and CT for early Tuesday afternoon. That being said, it's a bit warm for the area, verbatim at least. That 32 line is quite north. 

[ineedsnow]

crush job