Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Just waiting for Charlie Brown to get reeeeaallly close to the football

If we're comparing GFS to that then I would still feel much better having Charlie Brown behind the football than Chad Ryland in terms of our hope for a hit.

[jbenedet]

GFS looked more like CMC mid levels. I do think this was a shift towards other guidance, just didn't show much in the latitude gain factor in terms of sensible weather. 

[Prismshine Productions]

GFS is a lot slower than the EPS. 
It isn't at all buying an earlier phase, but a second vort in northern stream looks liable to hook up while over eastern conus. If not now, then in future runs.

Yeah, if our southern s/w keeps ticking slower and that vort is still there we *might* be able to land a biggie. Keep in mind the initial timeframe for this system was late afternoon on the 14th-15th...

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[ORH_wxman]

Man, GGEM barely gets much up here either....CT/RI special. How about a 70/30 compromise in favor of EPS?

[jbenedet]

There's still huge discrepancies just on how strong the southern stream vort is, and speed of it,, pretty early on around day 4 nevermind phasing. Kinda shocked by this, actually.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, jbenedet said:

There's still huge discrepancies just on how strong the southern stream vort is, and speed of it,, pretty early on around day 4 nevermind phasing. Kinda shocked by this, actually.

Yeah the divergence in the southern stream around that time is pretty eye opening. 

[jbenedet]

Safe to say don't really know where this goes from here. Uncertainty went up vs 18 hrs ago. 

 

Information too unreliable right now.

 

Wait and see mode again...

[brooklynwx99]

8 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

GFS looked more like CMC mid levels. I do think this was a shift towards other guidance, just didn't show much in the latitude gain factor in terms of sensible weather. 

seems more like it dug its heels in

[weatherwiz]

7 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

There's still huge discrepancies just on how strong the southern stream vort is, and speed of it,, pretty early on around day 4 nevermind phasing. Kinda shocked by this, actually.

What really sucks about this too is, if these discrepancies remain over the next few days there isn't a heck of a lot we can do. It's not like the error is resulting from sampling or lack of sampling. It looks like its just a result of how quickly the southern stream reaches maturity and exactly how strong the jet streak gets as it rounds the base of the trough and when this starts to occur. There are so many factors which can play into this that we may not know for sure until real-time Monday morning. 

[CoastalWx]

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Man, GGEM barely gets much up here either....CT/RI special. How about a 70/30 compromise in favor of EPS?

Lets get those srn stream deffy bands up here...the kind that goes nuts due to the confluence. Like BWI-PHL Feb 2010.

[Cold Miser]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

What really sucks about this too is, if these discrepancies remain over the next few days there isn't a heck of a lot we can do. It's not like the error is resulting from sampling or lack of sampling. It looks like its just a result of how quickly the southern stream reaches maturity and exactly how strong the jet streak gets as it rounds the base of the trough and when this starts to occur. There are so many factors which can play into this that we may not know for sure until real-time Monday morning. 

...The more important question to you is, when did you cheat on Miley Cyrus with Taylor Swift?  

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Lets get those srn stream deffy bands up here...the kind that goes nuts due to the confluence. Like BWI-PHL Feb 2010.

Locked

[NEPASnow]

All modeling atm

[WinterWolf]

I guess my idea of not seeing the real solution so far, has merit.  Getting interesting.  

[Typhoon Tip]

M'yeah the more I look at this ... the more I'm seeing the origin of problems over more vs less phasing potential is actually coming from the transitive influence of the E. Pac flow relay.  It's sending negative interference downstream during present era of modeling cycle trends. Not saying it goes on to be the final... I've seen these things correct from this range.  unknown.  But that's it, no question.

So this is more of a scaffolding of the entire flow structure, at continental/hemipheric scale issue. We are simply not generating enough of a R-wave ridge signature over western N/A .. under cutting the -EPO ridge (speaking to the operational's handling) is bad in this case. 

This below ?   Is a piece of utter shit  ... very little/zero means to force wave space coalescence down stream

[jbenedet]

The 12z GEFS shows a clear nod to the CMC evolution.

It's much more clear in the GEFS than the op.

[ma blizzard]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Lets get those srn stream deffy bands up here...the kind that goes nuts due to the confluence. Like BWI-PHL Feb 2010.

Can we get a 2/7/03 repeat 

[jbenedet]

With this I'm gonna say the GFS op is still the outlier.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

With this I'm gonna say the GFS op is still the outlier.

It's a south outlier but you can't deny the trends at 12z.

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's a south outlier but you can't deny the trends at 12z.

Keep it where it is, and then tick it north come Monday/Tuesday.  
 

Just another solution at the moment. But yes, northern stream not phasing in, but acting as confluence instead seems to be the latest trend. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Ukie dookie looks to crush the SS with confluence, no phase job. 

[JKEisMan]

[MJO812]

Ukie

[ORH_wxman]

Everything south at 12z except ICON.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Pick your suck.....it will be fascinating to see exactly which version of suck we get this time.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Everything south at 12z except ICON.

Maybe not such a bad place to be currently….keeps things interesting for SNE as to how this ultimately plays out. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Pick your suck.....it will be fascinating to see exactly which version of suck we get this time.

This obviously could be true, but I’m not necessarily thinking that at this juncture.  Let’s see how things go over the next few days. I like this better than congrats CNE/NNE like many were thinking yesterday and the day before.  She’s morphing. 

[JKEisMan]

Suppression rules the day?

North Carolina getting PD#3?

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, JKEisMan said:

Suppression rules the day?

North Carolina getting PD#3?

Nahh…way too early for that talk.  Any corrections to come.