Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

At least we’ll wash the salt off everything 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

So GFS/GEFS are a whiff/near-whiff while the 06z EPS is ripping the low into LI. Glad to see we've cleared up everything.

I know where my money is.

[Damage In Tolland]

It’s gonna be snowy next week in SNE

[JKEisMan]

14 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I know where my money is.

Under your pillow? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, JKEisMan said:

Under your pillow? 

In @Torch Tigers G-string......Grrrrrrr

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

17 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I know where my money is.

Do we even have any money left to wager?

[MJO812]

19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

So GFS/GEFS are a whiff/near-whiff while the 06z EPS is ripping the low into LI. Glad to see we've cleared up everything.

2 camps on eps also but more amped

[Cold Miser]

17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s gonna be snowy next week in SNE

Hopefully more rain than snow since my snowblower is down for the count at the moment.  

[Prismshine Productions]

We are at the range where the GFS has a SE bias that will trend NW within 84 hours... We now this by now

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[Ginx snewx]

53 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Pot-kettle...don't you have like 7 kids?

3 bio  oldest was conceived 46 years ago yesterday during some snow storm...

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He likes to forecast the opposite of what everyone thinks and/or wants. Pretty predicatable.

I explained what that was last night…it’s called  “The Pope Effect.”   

[iceman1]

11 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Hopefully more rain than snow since my snowblower is down for the count at the moment.  

finally, we might might get a good snowstorm and you want rain.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I explained what that was last night…it’s called  “The Pope Effect.”   

Hopefully this storm isn't the "The Poop Effect".

[brooklynwx99]

just a note... the GFS is farther south because it has more confluence from the northern stream, not because it's less amplified. it's actually way more amped with the southern stream than the ECMWF

so, although it's farther south, it doesn't seem to be due to its typical bias. for the record, I still think it's wrong, but it has a bit more validity this time since the differences between it and the other models is actually pretty small, and the northern stream can absolutely destructively interfere instead of phasing

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Pot-kettle...don't you have like 7 kids?

That isn't early release, that's a firehose.

[jbenedet]

25 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

just a note... the GFS is farther south because it has more confluence from the northern stream, not because it's less amplified. it's actually way more amped with the southern stream than the ECMWF

so, although it's farther south, it doesn't seem to be due to its typical bias. for the record, I still think it's wrong, but it has a bit more validity this time since the differences between it and the other models is actually pretty small, and the northern stream can absolutely destructively interfere instead of phasing

That look on the GFS doesn't fit anything really.

Not the MJO, not the teles; alone vs other guidance.

Sure it could be onto something, but odds are strongly against imo.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

That look on the GFS doesn't fit anything really.

Not the MJO, not the teles; alone vs other guidance.

Sure it could be onto something, but odds are strongly against imo.

Very reasonable take and fair assessment.

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

That look on the GFS doesn't fit anything really.

Not the MJO, not the teles; alone vs other guidance.

Sure it could be onto something, but odds are strongly against imo.

well yes, I'm just showing why it has what it has. I don't think it's correct

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Fwiw, the Euro and UK are a better fit for the +d(PNA).  

In fact ... there's only been a couple model cycles out of the last several day's worth that really fit the general index manifold  This entire erstwhile handling has been rather depressingly conserved. Always on the low-end representation of the correlation.   I wonder if the EPS is attempting, though. .. I see the 0z mean with a sub 988 at D5.5 pretty well nucleated to the the proper climate location; and it still has those spread members indicating bomb depths or close to it.  Not sure if some of those individual members have more N/stream involvement but probably.

The 00z Euro operational was the best current compromised solution between the index argument, vs the lack-representation in the guidance.   A low in the process of deepening below 985 mb while sliding under L.I. in route to just SE of ACK, with the 850 mb isotherms S of PVD ...   Boy, the index imply a major - if only. 

 

day 5-6 is usually when storms modelled as significant sort of disappear or get unclear.  Then they get sampled (when does this one get sampled?).  And then at day 4 (tomorrow morning) the direction gets clearer.

This is established weenie wisdom

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

well yes, I'm just showing why it has what it has. I don't think it's correct

The thing is, anything can be correct at this lead.  I don’t think we’ve seen the correct look just yet. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

The thing is, anything can be correct at this lead.  I don’t think we’ve seen the correct look just yet. 

Maybe, possibly, kinda, sorta.....lets see?

[weathafella]

Kind of an exhausting hobby.  I keep telling myself IDGAF but I come back for the next run.   Remember this event has always been considered the gateway event to the new pattern and not a particular high % snowstorm.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Kind of an exhausting hobby.  I keep telling myself IDGAF but I come back for the next run.   Remember this event has always been considered the gateway event to the new pattern and not a particular high % snowstorm.

I'm considering anything from this storm pure gravy. Would be nice to score on a marginal setup, but it's never looked like anything other than marginal even on the good runs.

[DJln491]

6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Remember this event has always been considered the gateway drug to more model watching.

Agreed.

[Typhoon Tip]

26 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

That look on the GFS doesn't fit anything really.

Not the MJO, not the teles; alone vs other guidance.

Sure it could be onto something, but odds are strongly against imo.

Yeah I've been more than less crooning that aspect for a few days, actually.

The operational runs across the board are to varying degrees, not representative of the index calculations that originate from their own ens systems.   It's weird.

You know ( ...risking poking the hornet's nest here - ), if this corrected suddenly way more amped in the last 72 hours because the western N/A ridge is suddenly more represented and that triggers an N/stream canonical dive through MN ( like the GF-f'um S actually had two nights ago for f-sake), I would not be surprised.

But it may not... you know, one sore rub about this stuff is that anomalies relative to the larger ongoing anomaly, do sometimes take place.

But your right as rain on that look there.  That's like a straight up zonal progressive rake by the operational run that is almost diametric to the principle of a increasing meridian flow associated with said ens derived index handling. 

Interesting.  

It's not just the GFS doing this though.  All the other operational models appears to be guilty of this to some degree more coherent or less. They're all shirky looking- GFS is just most egregious as of late.

[MJO812]

Looks like the icon will be south. Northern stream misses the phase 

[mahk_webstah]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm considering anything from this storm pure gravy. Would be nice to score on a marginal setup, but it's never looked like anything other than marginal even on the good runs.

I wanna lay down some pack as a hedge on suppression with a big block.

Oh and of course to give ya'll a better cold source... of course.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Looks like the icon will be south. Northern stream misses the phase 

Amps up last minute near Chatham.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Looks like the icon will be south. Northern stream misses the phase 

North of 00z by a tick....didn't matter...potent southern streamers find ways to amp up frequently.

[Typhoon Tip]

32 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm considering anything from this storm pure gravy. Would be nice to score on a marginal setup, but it's never looked like anything other than marginal even on the good runs.

Yeah, for me the greater experimentation value is/was the verification of a storm on the index inflection - 13th is the steepest part of the graphical projections from the big three.

That much seems fine at this point.  

The snow vs rain and where ... how much?  Jesus Christ.  Tele's say batten down the hatches.  The operational runs are windshield wiper events at times even dim sunners.    heh it may turn out the only major impact is the pain the neck this caused?   Who knows. 

There is some availability to a colder solution though. I outlined this earlier, but I'm not actually too put out by these warm GGEM type washes... they're likely both deep layer wrong, and then also considering the native model bias ...etc of some of these tools to be warm BLs.  I'm more intrigued in whether we hit the key-hole lat/lon because there's marginal but enough cold to make due if we can hit that.  It's not impossible just yet that we do or don't either way. 

All the while, this thing has back ground arguments for being way more impressive anyway - that part's a separate frustration.  If it got more amped and N/streamy-like ... no question to me that someone gets pretty damn white -