Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

They’ll tell you it isn’t any different….but watch how 18z more often than not, will show something exotic, or out of sync from what 12z showed just 6 hrs earlier many times.  Just saying. 

See I think it’s sort of a myth… 12z can just as easily be a change from 6z.  18z to 00z, etc.

Its kind of like an urban legend of weather; if anything changes on a 6z or 18z run, its passed off as a symptom of off-hour craziness .

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

See I think it’s sort of a myth… 12z can just as easily be a change from 6z.  18z to 00z, etc.

Its kind of like an urban legend of weather; if anything changes on a 6z or 18z run, its passed off as a symptom of off-hour craziness .

It’s Voodoo. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

See I think it’s sort of a myth… 12z can just as easily be a change from 6z.  18z to 00z, etc.

Its kind of like an urban legend of weather; if anything changes on a 6z or 18z run, its passed off as a symptom of off-hour craziness .

But the key here is….that the on hour runs many times go/revert back to what was previously shown. And that’s the odd part.

Now in this case/potential, we are still pretty far out, so we can use that idea to explain it away.  But when that is no longer the case, that’s when it gets wonky.  
 

Myths/urban legends many times do contain some truths…. But all kidding aside, it’s(off hrs)are wonky many times. 

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s Voodoo. 

Yup, but it’s Voodoo that seems to happen friekishly  a lot. 

[powderfreak]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s Voodoo. 

Complete mind games.

[powderfreak]

10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Yup, but it’s Voodoo that seems to happen friekishly  a lot. 

There are two paths for any given model run… stay the course or change from the previous run.  The majority of runs will change from the previous run.  That manifests itself often as reverting to a previous outcome. The process just alternates randomly from 00/06/12/18.

We really only notice the changes the off-hour runs make and validate the 00/12z runs in our minds.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Complete mind games.

I think any global op that runs 4x per day acts like an ensemble member anyway so you’ll get wide variations at long lead times. Then, as we hone in those variations tighten up but that’s precisely the time we begin sweating the micro details..so any small deviation is magnified. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, powderfreak said:

There are two paths for any given model run… stay the course or change from the previous run.  The majority of runs will change from the previous run.  That manifests itself often as reverting to a previous outcome.

We really only notice the changes the off-hour runs make and validate the 00/12z runs in our minds.

Ok, however you want to look at it.  But 6z provided a big hit for SNE, 12z not as much. 18Z back to big hit for SNE(different solution obviously), big hit nonetheless. Let’s see where 0z goes?  

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I think any global op that runs 4x per day acts like an ensemble member anyway so you’ll get wide variations at long lead times. Then, as we hone in those variations tighten up but that’s precisely the time we begin sweating the micro details..so any small deviation is magnified. 

This is a good point. 

[weathafella]

I think you’re all expected too much consensus at a lead time of 5-6 days.  The storm in question is halfway across the Pacific Ocean still.

[Go Kart Mozart]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

First of all, every thread I've started in the past 3 years has been > 75% correct at long leads, and some were remarkable at ranges of 7 to even 10 days. 

Some of you are bit too brash/rude and don't paint a very good picture of yourselves...  Plebeian witted

Yes, you're great.  We (the great unwashed masses) suck.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

I think you’re all expected too much consensus at a lead time of 5-6 days.  The storm in question is halfway across the Pacific Ocean still.

Oh I’m not expecting that Jerry. I agree, there’s gonna be a lot of variability at this lead.  Long way to go here. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Not that it means anything, but the Wunderground app is 6-12” for my hood Monday night into Tuesday.   Timing wouldn’t be ideal for me.  I’m guessing it is plugged into the GFS. 

[WinterWolf]

12 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Not that it means anything, but the Wunderground app is 6-12” for my hood Monday night into Tuesday.   Timing wouldn’t be ideal for me.  I’m guessing it is plugged into the GFS. 

That seems awfully early(Monday night)..no?   That thing is no better than the weather channel app…And I know you know this.  It’ll change as soon as the GFS changes…at 0z. 

[ORH_wxman]

18z eps came SE a solid tick. Still a lot of time for this one to keep shifting

 

 

[mahk_webstah]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

18z eps came SE a solid tick. Still a lot of time for this one to keep shifting

 

 

Very goood for many. Close to region wide 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

18z eps came SE a solid tick. Still a lot of time for this one to keep shifting

 

 

Lots of big/powerful systems in there still too.
 

Yes sir…shifting is in the cards with this one. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm going to have to have an early publication schedule with this one due to time constraints.....yikes....First Call tomorrow and Final either Sunday or Monday night.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z eps came SE a solid tick. Still a lot of time for this one to keep shifting

 

 

Nice, I know it shouldn't have due to the lead time and sensitivity of any stream interaction, but the 12z European suite spooked me.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lots of big/powerful systems in there still too.
 

Yes sir…shifting is in the cards with this one. 

Some big, powerful systems bulging out of their turtle neck sweaters.

[FXWX]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

18z eps came SE a solid tick. Still a lot of time for this one to keep shifting

 

 

Nice trend; at least for now... I long for the days when we would see a solid arctic air mass sitting across the Northeast the NE prior to a storm's arrival...

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nice, I know it shouldn't have due to the lead time and sensitivity of any stream interaction, but the 12z European suite spooked me.

The baseline climo is for weaker and later deepening. Know you are aware of the later deepening that often happens… that to me is the most impactful part to watch.  Wherever it develops or doesn’t.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The baseline climo is for weaker and later deepening. Know you are aware of the later deepening that often happens… that to me is the most impactful part to watch.  Wherever it develops or doesn’t.

Yes, I expect a later/less proficient phase, but hopefully not as bad as the 12z  EURO.

[WinterWolf]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Some big, powerful systems bulging out of their turtle neck sweaters.

That would be some potent systems then…

[toller65]

CMC is a pasting for Southern Maine in the Valentine's Day timeframe. Dryslot wouldn't have to trailer his sled to Eustis...

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk

[Torch Tiger]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Tons of preemptive cope and reverse psychology. We know the drill by now. 
 

I’ll ask people to keep this thread cleaner though. Keep the focus on this system and not personal depression on how this winter is going. Everyone already knows how bad it’s been south of the pike. 

who?

[wx2fish]

35 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Not that it means anything, but the Wunderground app is 6-12” for my hood Monday night into Tuesday.   Timing wouldn’t be ideal for me.  I’m guessing it is plugged into the GFS. 

That data is a dynamic blend of globals and ensembles at that range. It gets a good deal of met attention in the shorter range, but its mostly automated that far out. The same data goes into the TWC app

[weathafella]

17 minutes ago, toller65 said:

CMC is a pasting for Southern Maine in the Valentine's Day timeframe. Dryslot wouldn't have to trailer his sled to Eustis...

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk
 

Kind of irrelevant with 0Z coming out within 90 minutes.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

48 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z eps came SE a solid tick. Still a lot of time for this one to keep shifting

 

 

Nice move back se but we’ll need it to keep coming. I’ve noticed the eps/euro likes to swing from nw to se and back nw with each cycle as it gradually swings between the goalposts. The direction of 0z will be helpful to determine if this has any legs for SoP.

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

12 hours ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya I bet the fact that it comes out first is a big reason why its even looked at and talked about .. If it came out at the same time as GFS and Canadian I bet it would be forgotten.. Having it come out during the dead time can satisfy a weenies craving to get NAM'd or in this case i- CON'd pun intended

And the 00z ICON is off! I think Sey-Mour Snow makes a great point about model order. It does offer that first hit for us weenies. That being said, it's usually better to be first and wrong than last and still wrong.