stormtracker Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Raining at 138...looks a bit warmer so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Yeah, this ain't it yall. I'm sorry 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 well, the 850 finally collapses south, but the precip is about out of here...we took a step........back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Awful. I'm taking my ass to bed. Maybe the Euro will be giving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, this ain't it yall. I'm sorry No sorries bro. Still 140 hours away lol. I wouldnt wanna be in the bullseye 140+ hours out anyway lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Just now, winter_warlock said: No sorries bro. Still 140 hours away lol. I wouldnt wanna be in the bullseye 140+ hours out anyway lol True...im not saying bail...i'm just not feeling this one for us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Just need to delay this wave by a day to give cold air enough time to get here. Outside of the 0z run yesterday, Gfs is still faster than euro/cmc. But running out of time for big wholesale changes. Minor shifts here and there won’t get it done for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 0z Canadian is pretty bad too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Awful. I'm taking my ass to bed. Maybe the Euro will be giving no you're not...see you in 2 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 hour ago, Deck Pic said: no you're not...see you in 2 hours Hey I swear I tried to sleep, but you know how my insomnia is. I gave up and here I am. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Don't look at the Euro. Go to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 on the euro there's perhaps a nice period of snow Tuesday morning for higher spots. I'm open-minded. It's not until next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 I see some potential in that for two reasons, (a) it does not have very much warm advection, and (b) it develops a tight northeast to north gradient just as it's leaving land. It doesn't look like it wants to edge north which is also good, if it could edge south towards NC-VA border it could improve. 1-3" first call. Wherever it does set up will get 4-6" but that looks to be se PA into s NJ at present. Blizzard of 1899 clone on Feb 18-19 gets your attention. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Phases the NS energy this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Time to root for a phase with slightly different timing maybe. Big differences in how it handles that NS vorticity from run to run. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 WB 6Z GEFS better this run... still in the game... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 0z euro is gorgeous…until you look at temps. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Area of impact for some winter weather beginning to expand in WPCs day 6 probs. Still favoring N/W areas, but this was largely confined to the far western mountains even just yesterday. Slow progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 26 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 0z euro is gorgeous…until you look at temps. Yeah…..but the temps. Woof. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 6z GEFS implies maybe a rain to snow deal from NW to SE. Still a decent amount of spread wrt low position and timing. It will probably take a strong low with some dynamics to overcome the temp issues. A weakish wave passing just to our south is probably a loser for frozen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 18 minutes ago, CAPE said: 6z GEFS implies maybe a rain to snow deal from NW to SE. Still a decent amount of spread wrt low position and timing. It will probably take a strong low with some dynamics to overcome the temp issues. A weakish wave passing just to our south is probably a loser for frozen. Go big or bust....nice to have something to even consider for next week before the reload period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 6 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Go big or bust....nice to have something to even consider for next week before the reload period. It seems a phase is the way to get colder air involved with precip still ongoing. Need some slight adjustments with the timing to get the low to track a bit further south. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 39 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Go big or bust....nice to have something to even consider for next week before the reload period. Wait, "reload period"? The pattern flip will just have completed by this time next week or a little later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodhokie Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 I'll take the next reload period for $2000 Alex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 6z control is not good, sped up the main wave and it drives the SLP over Pa, so the op was going to be bad. If 12z doesn’t correct I’d likely move my focus to 16-18th. This event was always a long shot to begin with since it was the first wave of the pattern change and we have marginal cold air . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 11 minutes ago, Heisy said: 6z control is not good, sped up the main wave and it drives the SLP over Pa, so the op was going to be bad. If 12z doesn’t correct I’d likely move my focus to 16-18th. This event was always a long shot to begin with since it was the first wave of the pattern change and we have marginal cold air . still 5-7 days out, IMO still bears watching until like sunday/monday if it still looks bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Always a chance we get a lucky shift south like we did with the second Jan storm, but I don’t think this is it. We don’t have a PV or any arctic front pressing things south as the wave approaches to begin with. I’m more interested in the feb 18-20 window 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Start the thread shit the bed...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Last several storms we've looked at this winter, the GFS has trended towards increased wave separation in the medium range (3-5 days) and has lead the others in that regard - including the initial Jan storm (rain here) and I believe both of our small snowstorms mid-month. While not an ideal setup for us, I won't say its dead until we're inside 3 days 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 21 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Start the thread shit the bed...... Stop your grinnin' and drop your linen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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