DDweatherman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: I'll be in Emmitsburg for this event next week. Hopefully we have enough elevation for that event. Right now, I could see us grabbing a few inches. We’re in the battle zone for sure. 6z euro looks like it was coming in south again given low location and heights out front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Right now, I could see us grabbing a few inches. We’re in the battle zone for sure. 6z euro looks like it was coming in south again given low location and heights out frontWas just coming here to say this - looked slower and diggier. Couldn’t hurt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Was just coming here to say this - looked slower and diggier. Couldn’t hurt It does look pretty amped at h5, a couple closed contours on that 90 hour frame. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 The gefs is a puzzle. It’s noticeably better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 EPS ens look a tick better just looking at the snow mean/median. Mean in DC is ~1”, median is a T. Both of those are up. Not exactly amazing numbers lol, but still trending friendlier. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The gefs is a puzzle. It’s noticeably better. Yeah, I'm still mostly interested, although that could change later today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 6z EPS snow map 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 16 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The gefs is a puzzle. It’s noticeably better. And its not just outliers skewing the data, the probability of both more than 1/4 inches of snow shot up too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 10 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: 6z EPS snow map That’s noticeably better as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 The majority of members on the GEFS favor a low track a tad further south. If that is the case then it really comes down to how much intensification of the coastal low occurs while it's still close to the coast, such that colder air comes in with the heavier precip still ongoing. There is no doubt this will be rain to start given the mild air ahead of it and track of the initial low. A bit of a longshot especially for the lowlands, but not out of the question. In our region places up near the PA line clearly have the higher chances for frozen. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: The majority of members on the GEFS favor a low track a tad further south. If that is the case then it really comes down to how much intensification of the coastal low occurs while it's still close to the coast, such that colder air comes in with the heavier precip still ongoing. There is no doubt this will be rain to start given the mild air ahead of it and track of the initial low. A bit of a longshot especially for the lowlands, but not out of the question. In our region places up near the PA line clearly have the higher chances for frozen. Yep, thats what the lwx afd said. 50/66 north might get something like 1-3” if the closed low and in situ cold plays out. Otherwise best chances of accumulation north of the m/d line another trend in out favor is still not out of the question though 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 hour ago, DDweatherman said: We didn’t think a model run posted live by WW was the answer to good juju did we? WW knocking people out of the way like Costanza at a kids party to get to the keyboard to declare any hope dead. He revels in this. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 3 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: WW knocking people out of the way like Costanza at a kids party to get to the keyboard to declare any hope dead. He revels in this. I love how he posts 384 hour GEFS snow maps like he’s happy the totals are ticking up, meanwhile, he wants to post one where we’re in the biggest digital snow hole ever created Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toolsheds Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 14 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: WW knocking people out of the way like Costanza at a kids party to get to the keyboard to declare any hope dead. He revels in this. I thought that the fire alarm "escape" knocking the senior citizens was good too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 3k NAM (through 60 hours) is some combination of faster and/or further northeast of GFS. pretty good distance too. 12k NAM is like a half a day faster ahead with the whole system through 84. for what that's worth (literally nothing. negative information in fact) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Well here we go...either the elation or deflation run of the GFS... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Will 12z cause a thread closure? Will one reopen? Will that bring us to the promise land? Stay tuned 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Nothing remarkable so far...but we're only at hour 27 so.... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Carbon copy of 6z so far...at hour 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Nothing remarkable so far...but we're only at hour 27 so.... I thought it looked a little better at 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Carbon copy of 6z so far...at hour 48 H5 at 48 you can see that the SE ridge is stronger. It is just barely... but we cannot even have barely at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 No really big changes so far...slightly warmer out front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 When I say no changes, I mean anything remarkable that will change the outcome. There are some ass hair changes here and there, but nothing really remarkable so far 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, stormtracker said: When I say no changes, I mean anything remarkable that will change the outcome. There are some ass hair changes here and there, but nothing really remarkable so far Yeah but the SW is more north over TX/OK on the H5 at 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 So now there's a northern stream vort that's in a different position vs 6z...more SE..looks slightly stronger also 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Bet this comes farther N because GFS finally caved to other data and shows more interaction with the tpv lobe. Almost acts like a seesaw to swing it N . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 It's a tad warmer and looks like probably a hold from 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 So now there's a northern stream vort that's in a different position vs 6z...more SE..looks slightly stronger alsoThat lobe is killing us. The runs from 00z and before kept it separate. Finally 6z caved and phases it a bit and it’s swinging the main low farther N . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Yeah, we're cooked on this run. Same as 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: It's a tad warmer and looks like probably a hold from 6z Yeah... we need to watch the NS now... seems like more interaction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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