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2024 Valentines Day Rain/Snow/Who The Hell Knows Thread


WinterWxLuvr
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1 hour ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

Not a member above the mason dixon.  It is less than 5 days and it hasn’t shown a run without any snow in the ma in like 10 runs.  I have never in my life seen the euro trend toward the gfs when we need it to.  Maybe just maybe this will be the miracle and the euro caves here in about 30 minutes 

Euro will cave. Model runs of a lifetime

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It's 96-108 hours away, plenty of time for further adjustments. They had a completely different day of weather in Phoenix today from what their forecast said at 0800h. The weather girl on the PGA golf coverage set said she had no idea it was going to rain and didn't bring an umbrella. Of course in fairness, she probably doesn't have an umbrella. 

 

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It's 96-108 hours away, plenty of time for further adjustments. They had a completely different day of weather in Phoenix today from what their forecast said at 0800h. The weather girl on the PGA golf coverage set said she had no idea it was going to rain and didn't bring an umbrella. Of course in fairness, she probably doesn't have an umbrella. 
 

Yeah, GEFS still looks decent fwiw


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Yeah, GEFS still looks decent fwiw


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It’s much improved from 00z actually.

Euro continued to shift to the southern trend last night. Not surprised the GFS bounces around a bit. Is the most likely outcome we’re screwed in DC? Probably. I’d be pretty happy in Philly, lol. But it’s not over
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I’m still not sold on this event for anyone south of I-70 and realistically any appreciable snow south of the M/D. Sure we can luck into something, but I like the PA Turnpike and points north for this one right now. I think WSW will be relegated to north of the subforum. This is not a setup that favors us in a climo sense. If we had anything resembling cold air in here prior, we’d be game on, but man…if only 

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1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

I’m still not sold on this event for anyone south of I-70 and realistically any appreciable snow south of the M/D. Sure we can luck into something, but I like the PA Turnpike and points north for this one right now. I think WSW will be relegated to north of the subforum. This is not a setup that favors us in a climo sense. If we had anything resembling cold air in here prior, we’d be game on, but man…if only 

I'll be in Emmitsburg for this event next week. Hopefully we have enough elevation for that event.

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The majority of members on the GEFS favor a low track a tad further south. If that is the case then it really comes down to how much intensification of the coastal low occurs while it's still close to the coast, such that colder air comes in with the heavier precip still ongoing. There is no doubt this will be rain to start given the mild air ahead of it and track of the initial low. A bit of a longshot especially for the lowlands, but not out of the question. In our region places up near the PA line clearly have the higher chances for frozen.

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3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The majority of members on the GEFS favor a low track a tad further south. If that is the case then it really comes down to how much intensification of the coastal low occurs while it's still close to the coast, such that colder air comes in with the heavier precip still ongoing. There is no doubt this will be rain to start given the mild air ahead of it and track of the initial low. A bit of a longshot especially for the lowlands, but not out of the question. In our region places up near the PA line clearly have the higher chances for frozen.

Yep, thats what the lwx afd said. 50/66 north might get something like 1-3” if the closed low and in situ cold plays out. Otherwise best chances of accumulation north of the m/d line

another trend in out favor is still not out of the question though

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3 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

WW knocking people out of the way like Costanza at a kids party to get to the keyboard to declare any hope dead. He revels in this. 

I love how he posts 384 hour GEFS snow maps like he’s happy the totals are ticking up, meanwhile, he wants to post one where we’re in the biggest digital snow hole ever created

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14 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

WW knocking people out of the way like Costanza at a kids party to get to the keyboard to declare any hope dead. He revels in this. 

I thought that the fire alarm "escape" knocking the senior citizens was good too. 

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