high risk Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 It always warms my heart to see the snow depth maps posted here, but this is not the type of event for which they do well. They limit accumulation when surface temps and soil are warm, and they'll never capture the ability of heavy rates to overcome marginal thermodynamics. I'd probably either average the 10:1 and snow depth products or mentally adjust the 10:1 maps downward. Kuchera maps might be good too - I hate how generous they are with colder temps, but they seem to properly limit accumulations when the temperature is marginal. 5 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 I also would like the compromise. We historically do well with a low in S WV transferring to ORF and moving ENE. colder on temps just slightly north with features. Even though it was a pretty good run, do we close this and open something new before 0z to get the Euro to meet the GFS right where 18z was? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 20 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It’s not a bad run just shifts heavy precip a bit north. A bit? I went from 10” to 2”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 4 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: A bit? I went from 10” to 2”. Hey so did I. Ok. A lot? Better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Hey so did I. Ok. A lot? Better Not really a lot, just some areas the concentration of precip orientation was focused more NW and less of that dry slot given the primary transferred a bit cleaner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 GEFS maps are a lot uglier but really it’s just drier… maybe a bit north which I guess we can’t afford either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 46 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Better for norther folks accumulation wise. Def drier tho. I lost like 8”. Shut up RR Trust me, even in that scenario you wouldn’t have any difficulties finding suitable dates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Judging from the trends, the slower this system is the better it is for us. Faster means warmer in this case. Not sure which way this is going to eventually break, but I don’t like being on the southern 1/3 of the snow area. Learned that lesson on Jan 7 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 41 minutes ago, high risk said: It always warms my heart to see the snow depth maps posted here, but this is not the type of event for which they do well. They limit accumulation when surface temps and soil are warm, and they'll never capture the ability of heavy rates to overcome marginal thermodynamics. I'd probably either average the 10:1 and snow depth products or mentally adjust the 10:1 maps downward. Kuchera maps might be good too - I hate how generous they are with colder temps, but they seem to properly limit accumulations when the temperature is marginal. Don't forget the increasing sun angle between 10:30 am and 2:30 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Judging from the trends, the slower this system is the better it is for us. Faster means warmer in this case. Not sure which way this is going to eventually break, but I don’t like being on the southern 1/3 of the snow area. Learned that lesson on Jan 7Already trending faster no? Most recent gfs is catching up w the euro. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Think that’s more a function of timing. Notice how much warmer we are at 12z. Bro. I shit all over this threat and it appears I will fail badly. You need to start all storm threads going forward. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Bro. I shit all over this threat and it appears I will fail badly. You need to start all storm threads going forward. Haha DD wants to close it, so I must not be doing all that well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Most important 18z EPS Control run in history rolling out soon. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: I’ll see what the ensembles say but i can kind of feel it slipping away based on one run? I think we're still in the game. Of course my expectations are pretty low. like 1-3" type event for us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 18 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Bro. I shit all over this threat and it appears I will fail badly. You need to start all storm threads going forward. The Washington DC Metropolitan Region will get obliterated by snow just as surely as Bruce Lee obliterates this chump 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 59 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Judging from the trends, the slower this system is the better it is for us. Faster means warmer in this case. Not sure which way this is going to eventually break, but I don’t like being on the southern 1/3 of the snow area. Learned that lesson on Jan 7 This is a good post. I need to know what I'm looking for during pbp. Slower....northern stream out front...separation 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 the 18z euro is out to 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 It truncates at 90...but maybe there are some hints as to which direction the run is headed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 @brooklynwx99 in the NE forum said the 90h 18z Euro looks more GFS like than previous runs. compressed flow making the vector of the h5 energy pretty similar since the Euro has it W-E and the GFS has WSW-ENE. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 40 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Haha DD wants to close it, so I must not be doing all that well Cant even think about closing a thread when this is 120 out. Straight up porn. At least out here. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 42 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Haha DD wants to close it, so I must not be doing all that well I don’t really trust me it was all just in spirit of the 2 thread 100% success rate. Let’s win at 0z and not ever need a 2nd thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 5 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: @brooklynwx99 in the NE forum said the 90h 18z Euro looks more GFS like than previous runs. compressed flow making the vector of the h5 energy pretty similar since the Euro has it W-E and the GFS has WSW-ENE. Nice. I want confirmation from @Deck Pic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 9 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Nice. I want confirmation from @Deck Pic i love brooklynwx but he is the optimistic weatherman i have ever met 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 2 minutes ago, Ji said: i love brooklynwx but he is the optimistic weatherman i have ever met Like the complete opposite of erswxman who was a complete mess a couple years ago. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 6 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Like the complete opposite of erswxman who was a complete mess a couple years ago. oh my gosh what happened to that guy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, Ji said: oh my gosh what happened to that guy? He pops in when the rug is pulled to troll 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 40 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: @brooklynwx99 in the NE forum said the 90h 18z Euro looks more GFS like than previous runs. compressed flow making the vector of the h5 energy pretty similar since the Euro has it W-E and the GFS has WSW-ENE. I've seen it and he's right. I didn't comment because it stops at 90 and I'm not in the business of try to extrapolate. It does seem a bit more compressed 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 31 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Nice. I want confirmation from @Deck Pic I can confirm, I've seen it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, stormtracker said: I've seen it and. his right. I didn't comment because it stops at 90 and I'm not in the business of try to extrapolate. It does seem a bit more compressed EPS certainly has more confluence and has the vort more held back. another move towards the GFS 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: EPS certainly has more confluence and has the vort more held back. another move towards the GFS 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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