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2024 Valentines Day Rain/Snow/Who The Hell Knows Thread


WinterWxLuvr
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1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Much like the OP… not a lot on the snow front but rather massive jump southward on the LP

12z EPS

425cec6954f3c87597049a489971b663.jpg


6z EPS

a4018cfc5a1bb5911039235214a88c32.jpg

Think that’s more a function of timing. Notice how much warmer we are at 12z. 

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Interesting, kinda funny snippet from Mount Holly AFD on this event-

A deep upper trough over the West Coast ejects into the
southern Plains, and the base of the trough pinches off into a
closed upper low over the Southern Plains and Gulf Coast states
Sunday night. Surface low pressure develops out ahead of it and
moves towards the Mid-Atlantic on Monday.

This is where the models go awry. The 12Z/08 ECMWF has the low
passing through southern New Jersey and Delmarva Monday night,
and then the low intensifies off the New Jersey coast as the H5
trough follows behind it Tuesday morning. This system then
departs Tuesday afternoon. In terms of sensible weather, the
predominant ptype will be rain on Monday, changing to snow over
the southern Poconos and northern New Jersey Monday night and
Tuesday as colder air filters into the region behind the
departing low. A plowable snow is possible for those areas, and
possibly even down to the Fall Line.

The surface low is faster in the 12Z/08 CMC, with rain moving
into the region earlier on Monday, and has the low over eastern
Long Island by Tuesday morning. The storm is then gone Tuesday
afternoon before the cold air filters into the region. This
results in minimal snow accumulation.

The outlier, though it has been a consistent outlier, is the
12Z/08 GFS. The storm is much slower, with the low still over
North Carolina and Virginia Tuesday morning, and then passes
through Delmarva during the day Tuesday before departing Tuesday
night. With high pressure building in from the north, cold air
advection will be underway, and temperatures drop to below
freezing across much of the region. This results in at least a
plowable snow across much of southern New Jersey and into
Delmarva.

 

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3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I’m on my way to the gym homie. And i hate doing pbp on this phone. I can’t compare easily. You got this. I’ll take a look but won’t be able to quickly tell if it’s souther norther etc.  

its norther and you know it

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