CAPE Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 Interesting, kinda funny snippet from Mount Holly AFD on this event- A deep upper trough over the West Coast ejects into the southern Plains, and the base of the trough pinches off into a closed upper low over the Southern Plains and Gulf Coast states Sunday night. Surface low pressure develops out ahead of it and moves towards the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. This is where the models go awry. The 12Z/08 ECMWF has the low passing through southern New Jersey and Delmarva Monday night, and then the low intensifies off the New Jersey coast as the H5 trough follows behind it Tuesday morning. This system then departs Tuesday afternoon. In terms of sensible weather, the predominant ptype will be rain on Monday, changing to snow over the southern Poconos and northern New Jersey Monday night and Tuesday as colder air filters into the region behind the departing low. A plowable snow is possible for those areas, and possibly even down to the Fall Line. The surface low is faster in the 12Z/08 CMC, with rain moving into the region earlier on Monday, and has the low over eastern Long Island by Tuesday morning. The storm is then gone Tuesday afternoon before the cold air filters into the region. This results in minimal snow accumulation. The outlier, though it has been a consistent outlier, is the 12Z/08 GFS. The storm is much slower, with the low still over North Carolina and Virginia Tuesday morning, and then passes through Delmarva during the day Tuesday before departing Tuesday night. With high pressure building in from the north, cold air advection will be underway, and temperatures drop to below freezing across much of the region. This results in at least a plowable snow across much of southern New Jersey and into Delmarva. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 @stormtrackertime, let’s do this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 Just now, Solution Man said: @stormtrackertime, let’s do this I’m on my way to the gym homie. And i hate doing pbp on this phone. I can’t compare easily. You got this. I’ll take a look but won’t be able to quickly tell if it’s souther norther etc. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I’m on my way to the gym homie. And i hate doing pbp on this phone. I can’t compare easily. You got this. I’ll take a look but won’t be able to quickly tell if it’s souther norther etc. will keep u up to speed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I’m on my way to the gym homie. And i hate doing pbp on this phone. I can’t compare easily. You got this. I’ll take a look but won’t be able to quickly tell if it’s souther norther etc. its norther and you know it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 Just now, Ji said: its norther and you know it Could be. At least its not as dry as… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 18z ICON still sucked btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 Similar to 12z at 57 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 An ass hair colder at 63 vs 12z 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 2 minutes ago, Solution Man said: An ass hair colder at 63 vs 12z Maybe two 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 NS seems slightly faster, but too early to call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 Nice dump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 Tad bit quicker so far and thevort closes off 6 hours sooner 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 Nice look at 84, still can’t tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 1 minute ago, Wonderdog said: Nice dump. Idk if you are actually that far ahead but I'm not seeing a cave thru 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 Untrained eye likes this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 I think we'll like this one Similar to 06z, but with better ridging out west 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 I can’t compare shit, but I’m posting from the future. The money frames are almost in reach 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 Just now, stormtracker said: I can’t compare shit, but I’m posting from the future. The money frames are almost in reach Do you say FOLKS in the future? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 Gotta go pick up my daughter now... will have to rely on you guys for the pbp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 LP is a little more than a hair further north and stronger at 105 before it starts trying to transfer. Idk how much it'll matter, in all honesty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 Through 102, the low is 4mb stronger on the 18z compared to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 Stronger low pressure at 105, and just a bit more northern vs 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 995 in SW WV at 111 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 Surface low just behind WV at Hour 108, definitely a tad bit faster than 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 Over ORF at 114 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 surface looks to be modestly colder than last run thru 117... might help when it still hopefully flips us to snow i'd trust @stormtracker has the more relevant info - he's always ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 It’s drier. But still same temp profile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 We will like this 995 low pressure near Norfolk at 114 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 Ripping snow at 117 at DCA and north 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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