NorthArlington101 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 If you go back to 12z yesterday it is a huge shift in the right direction so I am happy with this. What we can’t have is the 2 meeting in the middle.. so we basically have 0 wiggle room and are relying on the euro to continue its shift. Fun times for sure.Part of the point I was trying to make was we don’t have room in the middle as it stands, but that assumes the GFS is done trending one way. Maybe it ends up pushing the heaviest stuff down to RIC. If it went from Boston to DCA in 24 hours, who says that trend is over. Then a meet in the middle is a pretty friendly solution.This is also totally conjecture and just a way to convince myself we’ve got a shot. But it’s plausible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 It’s not the gfs, but it is a big jump. Noticeably slower and the snow maps (worthless) do a good job at least of showing the southward trend for snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 Parts of Maine went from a foot plus to nothing on the Euro in a day. This is not an insignificant change. Of course, as we get closer there’s only so much change that is reasonably possible 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 For those watching storms long enough, when the GFS is out on an island, it doesn't bode well for us. Fingers crossed though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 3 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 If I’m not wrong, the GFS was the first to bring back the “dead” snow storm the first week of January, 2022. That was an awesome week. Also, the other models have had this storm before and lost it. Sometimes the GFS is the first to resurrect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Much like the OP… not a lot on the snow front but rather massive jump southward on the LP12z EPS6z EPS 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 31 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Parts of Maine went from a foot plus to nothing on the Euro in a day. This is not an insignificant change. Of course, as we get closer there’s only so much change that is reasonably possible No where close to the final outcome. That was a big move by the Euro. One more like that and it would look alot like the GFS 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 12z EPS snow mean 6z EPS snow mean 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Much like the OP… not a lot on the snow front but rather massive jump southward on the LP 12z EPS 6z EPS Looks to be slower which I think is what we want 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: 12z EPS snow mean 6z EPS snow mean Certainly a notable shift south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Much like the OP… not a lot on the snow front but rather massive jump southward on the LP 12z EPS 6z EPS Hmm. This was a pretty big shift. We'll probably get a compromise, which isn't gonna do it for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Pretty huge shift with 4-5 days still to go. Good trends as others have noted I’m not hugely optimistic but did anyone think the euro was gonna suddenly go all in on a dc snow storm after what it showed 12 hours ago? I think a compromise might get the northern parts of our area into decent snow but I’m not sure if the euro is done trending south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Hmm. This was a pretty big shift. We'll probably get a compromise, which isn't gonna do it for us.Or you could say, one more shift similar to this and we’re all in the game. It’s already happened this year…atmospheric memory for the win baby! . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 24 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Much like the OP… not a lot on the snow front but rather massive jump southward on the LP 12z EPS 6z EPS Great pickup, yeah, that is trending in the right direction. Rain/snow lines should be ignored for now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 hour ago, snowmagnet said: DT yesterday said there was no way the MidAtlantic would get snow next week. So…. Hmm how accurate is DT? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 5 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Or you could say, one more shift similar to this and we’re all in the game. It’s already happened this year…atmospheric memory for the win baby! . I dunno...I'm just very skeptical. If 18z keeps it, I'll be excited for the 0z run...but I'm pretty sure the GFS is going to cave with either run. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I dunno...I'm just very skeptical. If 18z keeps it, I'll be excited for the 0z run...but I'm pretty sure the GFS is going to cave with either run. It'll probably look like the 12z Euro at 18z then they'll both go south together at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 28 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Hmm. This was a pretty big shift. We'll probably get a compromise, which isn't gonna do it for us. This has my attention. EPS trend since 12z yesterday 13 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This has my attention. EPS trend since 12z yesterday That definitely qualifies as a trend southward. Another move like that and the 2" line is touching Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 I mean...it is pretty clear that all the other guidance made a major move to the GFS. Obviously them meeting in the middle even now wouldn't be great, but I don't see any reason to think this thing has no chance based on the 12z suite, looks to me like a good argument to be made that the GFS is leading the way. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: That definitely qualifies as a trend southward. Another move like that and the 2" line is touching Baltimore. Definitely a south trend!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This has my attention. EPS trend since 12z yesterday Yeah I didn't realize this obviously right after the deflating 12z op run. It does bring back the interest level for me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Gfs ensembles strong support the op so id be surprised to see a big shift at 18z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Want to see Gfs further south 18z. Put us in the compromise jackpot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 What you want is a slower stronger storm. We’re getting rain on the front end. That much is certain. If we have a stronger storm it will pull in the cold air and get a quicker change to snow with heavier rates. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 One thing I will say I didn't like about the 12z GFS admittedly is h5 was a bit north of 6z despite the trend south with the low & transfer. May not be of the biggest significance since we still have a good pass, but nevertheless something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 45 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: I mean...it is pretty clear that all the other guidance made a major move to the GFS. Obviously them meeting in the middle even now wouldn't be great, but I don't see any reason to think this thing has no chance based on the 12z suite, looks to me like a good argument to be made that the GFS is leading the way. I realize we're a glass half empty forum for snow, but agree with this. The maps above show the clear shift towards a GFS solution - too early to say which 'camp' is going to be right. At least its nice to track something beyond -NAO signals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 18z NAM 500mb low is further north and faster vs 12z GFS at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: 18z NAM 500mb low is further north and faster vs 12z GFS at the same time. The NAM at 84 is where you wanna put your money. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now