2024 Valentines Day Rain/Snow/Who The Hell Knows Thread

[stormtracker]

Gonna be comparing to 6z until 84 hours, then it will be 0z

[NorthArlington101]

I’ve been absent in here because the GFs has been so awful that frankly until something else joins this club I just cant get excited. That said the other guidance has kinda been trending towards it. Maybe once in a while the gfs can stumble onto the right idea.  

Remember when everything caved towards the GFS that one time in January 2022? Feel like it was a similar range. Half the forum was ready to crown the FV3 king

[stormtracker]

So far, no remarkable changes vs 6z, but it's super early in the game...

[stormtracker]

Seeing some subtle changes...southern sw is a bit more southwester than 6z.... by 60 hours is pretty evident and slightly more separation between the northern and southern wave

[MDScienceTeacher]

1 hour ago, EHoffman said:

36 on the surface for our heaviest rates lol

I would not worry about it too much.  We have seen thunder snow with these types of setups in the past.. as long as we get the rates I am pretty sure the cold air aloft will mix down

[stormtracker]

Differences are a bit more apparent at 75...northern streamer is out a head a little bit more and southern streamer is back to the southwest a little more

[NorthArlington101]

Differences are a bit more apparent at 75...northern streamer is out a head a little bit more and southern streamer is back to the southwest a little more

It looks pretty GFS like, toggling back and forth between the two. Maybe even a little souther than GFS w/ the southern streamer

[stormtracker]

81 hours nothern streamer is ahead by a good bit vs 6z

[stormtracker]

ok, gonna switch to comparing it to 0z.....as you know 6z only goes to 90, so we're past that time period...and again, the northern streamer movement is pretty significant vs 6z

[stormtracker]

Don't know if it's just slower, but the s/w in the south is a tad bit souther....still too early to call.  So I won't

[snowmagnet]

This is going way too slow.  I feel like this is the most important run of the season so far.  

[stormtracker]

I think I safely say that it won't be like the GFS.  Also rain gets in faster vs GFS

[NorthArlington101]

ok, gonna switch to comparing it to 0z.....as you know 6z only goes to 90, so we're past that time period...and again, the northern streamer movement is pretty significant vs 6z

Past 81 or so you can tell the GFS is holding a lot more energy back. Its a shift in the right direction though, you’d think

[stormtracker]

The Euro isn't buying what the GFS is selling

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Past 81 or so you can tell the GFS is holding a lot more energy back. Its a shift in the right direction though, you’d think

That's something to note though since normally (correct me if I'm wrong folks), the Euro has a tendency to hold back S/S energy more so than other models. 

[stormtracker]

LOL, the gfs just starts to get going at 9z Tuesday and the Euro has the thing north of us about to exit stage right

[stormtracker]

Well, that was anti climatic.   Mt PSU has a trace on this run.   GFS should cave at 18z/0z

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Well, that was anti climatic.   Mt PSU has a trace on this run.   GFS should cave at 18z/0z

Agreed, but what if it doesn't? The Euro definitely went more in the direction of the GFS from the last 2 runs. Problem is, meeting in the middle is no dice for us. It would have to mainly be GFSesque. 

Could always kill this thread and then the new thread will help the GFS score the coup.

[NorthArlington101]

Well, that was anti climatic.   Mt PSU has a trace on this run.   GFS should cave at 18z/0z

Idk man… toggling it back from 00z it was a pretty big jump. Kinda looks like it’s behind the GFS by 2 cycles.

Maybe they meet in the middle and we get screwed. But maybe the GFS isn’t done moving yet and the middle is OK

[snowmagnet]

DT yesterday said there was no way the MidAtlantic would get snow next week.  So….

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Idk man… toggling it back from 00z it was a pretty big jump. Kinda looks like it’s behind the GFS by 2 cycles.

Maybe they meet in the middle and we get screwed. But maybe the GFS isn’t done moving yet and the middle is OK

Damn, that's awesome. We said basically the same thing lmao 

[nj2va]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Idk man… toggling it back from 00z it was a pretty big jump. Kinda looks like it’s behind the GFS by 2 cycles.

Maybe they meet in the middle and we get screwed. But maybe the GFS isn’t done moving yet and the middle is OK

Agreed, I think that was a decent enough shift.  There’s even been shifts within 100 hours that have been meaningful this winter with our last two events so I don’t think anyone can confidently say they know the final outcome.

[MDScienceTeacher]

5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Agreed, I think that was a decent enough shift.  There’s even been shifts within 100 hours that have been meaningful this winter with our last two events so I don’t think anyone can confidently say they know the final outcome.

If you go back to 12z yesterday it is a huge shift in the right direction so I am happy with this.  What we can’t have is the 2 meeting in the middle.. so we basically have 0 wiggle room and are relying on the euro to continue its shift.  Fun times for sure.

[MDScienceTeacher]

10 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

DT yesterday said there was no way the MidAtlantic would get snow next week.  So….

And we have this going for us.

[NorthArlington101]

If you go back to 12z yesterday it is a huge shift in the right direction so I am happy with this.  What we can’t have is the 2 meeting in the middle.. so we basically have 0 wiggle room and are relying on the euro to continue its shift.  Fun times for sure.

Part of the point I was trying to make was we don’t have room in the middle as it stands, but that assumes the GFS is done trending one way. Maybe it ends up pushing the heaviest stuff down to RIC. If it went from Boston to DCA in 24 hours, who says that trend is over. Then a meet in the middle is a pretty friendly solution.

This is also totally conjecture and just a way to convince myself we’ve got a shot. But it’s plausible

[WinterWxLuvr]

It’s not the gfs, but it is a big jump. Noticeably slower and the snow maps (worthless) do a good job at least of showing the southward trend for snowfall.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Parts of Maine went from a foot plus to nothing on the Euro in a day. This is not an insignificant change. Of course, as we get closer there’s only so much change that is reasonably possible 

[Quasievil]

For those watching storms long enough, when the GFS is out on an island, it doesn't bode well for us. Fingers crossed though.

[paulythegun]

[snowmagnet]

If I’m not wrong, the GFS was the first to bring back the “dead” snow storm the first week of January, 2022. That was an awesome week. 
 

Also, the other models have had this storm before and lost it.  Sometimes the GFS is the first to resurrect.