MDScienceTeacher Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 This is Definitely a trend on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 EPS trended south with the SLP but not snowfall. Thats likely due to the thermal issues south of the PA line. Even with a better track there is diminishing return to a point unless things trend colder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 Doctor No says maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/9/2024 at 5:59 AM, MDScienceTeacher said: Not a member above the mason dixon. It is less than 5 days and it hasn’t shown a run without any snow in the ma in like 10 runs. I have never in my life seen the euro trend toward the gfs when we need it to. Maybe just maybe this will be the miracle and the euro caves here in about 30 minutes Expand Euro will cave. Model runs of a lifetime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 ICON stayed north at 6Z; let's see if GFS holds.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 WB GFS 7am Mon. Compared to 0Z EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 10pm Mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 1am, looks a tick North... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 Yah, it's over...10am Tues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 WB 6Z GFS now in line with EURO. Hopefully will have better luck the week of the 19th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 It's 96-108 hours away, plenty of time for further adjustments. They had a completely different day of weather in Phoenix today from what their forecast said at 0800h. The weather girl on the PGA golf coverage set said she had no idea it was going to rain and didn't bring an umbrella. Of course in fairness, she probably doesn't have an umbrella. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/9/2024 at 10:51 AM, Roger Smith said: It's 96-108 hours away, plenty of time for further adjustments. They had a completely different day of weather in Phoenix today from what their forecast said at 0800h. The weather girl on the PGA golf coverage set said she had no idea it was going to rain and didn't bring an umbrella. Of course in fairness, she probably doesn't have an umbrella. Yeah, GEFS still looks decent fwiw . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/9/2024 at 10:52 AM, Heisy said: Yeah, GEFS still looks decent fwiw .It’s much improved from 00z actually. Euro continued to shift to the southern trend last night. Not surprised the GFS bounces around a bit. Is the most likely outcome we’re screwed in DC? Probably. I’d be pretty happy in Philly, lol. But it’s not over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 We didn’t think a model run posted live by WW was the answer to good juju did we? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 I’m still not sold on this event for anyone south of I-70 and realistically any appreciable snow south of the M/D. Sure we can luck into something, but I like the PA Turnpike and points north for this one right now. I think WSW will be relegated to north of the subforum. This is not a setup that favors us in a climo sense. If we had anything resembling cold air in here prior, we’d be game on, but man…if only 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/9/2024 at 12:33 PM, MillvilleWx said: I’m still not sold on this event for anyone south of I-70 and realistically any appreciable snow south of the M/D. Sure we can luck into something, but I like the PA Turnpike and points north for this one right now. I think WSW will be relegated to north of the subforum. This is not a setup that favors us in a climo sense. If we had anything resembling cold air in here prior, we’d be game on, but man…if only Expand I'll be in Emmitsburg for this event next week. Hopefully we have enough elevation for that event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/9/2024 at 12:35 PM, Eskimo Joe said: I'll be in Emmitsburg for this event next week. Hopefully we have enough elevation for that event. Expand Right now, I could see us grabbing a few inches. We’re in the battle zone for sure. 6z euro looks like it was coming in south again given low location and heights out front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/9/2024 at 12:36 PM, DDweatherman said: Right now, I could see us grabbing a few inches. We’re in the battle zone for sure. 6z euro looks like it was coming in south again given low location and heights out frontWas just coming here to say this - looked slower and diggier. Couldn’t hurt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/9/2024 at 12:39 PM, NorthArlington101 said: Was just coming here to say this - looked slower and diggier. Couldn’t hurt Expand It does look pretty amped at h5, a couple closed contours on that 90 hour frame. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2024 Author Share Posted February 9, 2024 The gefs is a puzzle. It’s noticeably better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 EPS ens look a tick better just looking at the snow mean/median. Mean in DC is ~1”, median is a T. Both of those are up. Not exactly amazing numbers lol, but still trending friendlier. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/9/2024 at 1:04 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: The gefs is a puzzle. It’s noticeably better. Expand Yeah, I'm still mostly interested, although that could change later today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 6z EPS snow map 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/9/2024 at 1:04 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: The gefs is a puzzle. It’s noticeably better. Expand And its not just outliers skewing the data, the probability of both more than 1/4 inches of snow shot up too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2024 Author Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/9/2024 at 1:14 PM, DDweatherman said: 6z EPS snow map Expand That’s noticeably better as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 The majority of members on the GEFS favor a low track a tad further south. If that is the case then it really comes down to how much intensification of the coastal low occurs while it's still close to the coast, such that colder air comes in with the heavier precip still ongoing. There is no doubt this will be rain to start given the mild air ahead of it and track of the initial low. A bit of a longshot especially for the lowlands, but not out of the question. In our region places up near the PA line clearly have the higher chances for frozen. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/9/2024 at 1:43 PM, CAPE said: The majority of members on the GEFS favor a low track a tad further south. If that is the case then it really comes down to how much intensification of the coastal low occurs while it's still close to the coast, such that colder air comes in with the heavier precip still ongoing. There is no doubt this will be rain to start given the mild air ahead of it and track of the initial low. A bit of a longshot especially for the lowlands, but not out of the question. In our region places up near the PA line clearly have the higher chances for frozen. Expand Yep, thats what the lwx afd said. 50/66 north might get something like 1-3” if the closed low and in situ cold plays out. Otherwise best chances of accumulation north of the m/d line another trend in out favor is still not out of the question though 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/9/2024 at 12:10 PM, DDweatherman said: We didn’t think a model run posted live by WW was the answer to good juju did we? Expand WW knocking people out of the way like Costanza at a kids party to get to the keyboard to declare any hope dead. He revels in this. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/9/2024 at 1:46 PM, North Balti Zen said: WW knocking people out of the way like Costanza at a kids party to get to the keyboard to declare any hope dead. He revels in this. Expand I love how he posts 384 hour GEFS snow maps like he’s happy the totals are ticking up, meanwhile, he wants to post one where we’re in the biggest digital snow hole ever created Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toolsheds Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/9/2024 at 1:46 PM, North Balti Zen said: WW knocking people out of the way like Costanza at a kids party to get to the keyboard to declare any hope dead. He revels in this. Expand I thought that the fire alarm "escape" knocking the senior citizens was good too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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