Solution Man Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 Heavy beat down snow into the area at 117 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 It's further north but we still get a good hit. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 Better for norther folks accumulation wise. Def drier tho. I lost like 8”. Shut up RR 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 Still snowing at 120 but north and east gets the goods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 Just now, stormtracker said: Better for norther folks accumulation wise. Def drier tho. I lost like 8”. Shut up RR Thanks Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 points for the compromise crew... don't want this to compromise any further north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 Somebody post a clown map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 It’s not a bad run just shifts heavy precip a bit north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 1 minute ago, yoda said: Thanks Ji No prob yoder 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 Maybe that's the compromise between Euro/GFS. I'd take it in a heartbeat. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 Noise, but everything trends south this year….after we close this thread and start a new one… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 I’ll see what the ensembles say but i can kind of feel it slipping away 1 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 Ass hair=Noise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: It’s not a bad run just shifts heavy precip a bit north. the vort pass was norther - but the shifts are quite modest. a shift like we got in the last 48 hours of our last storm would be a difference maker. and we've got 120 to go lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said: I like this on better but ain’t nobody gettin 10:1 ratios 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I’ll see what the ensembles say but i can kind of feel it slipping away This probably will slip away in the end, but at least we have something to watch while we wait for our HECS to lock in at D10 and never waver. 5 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: the vort pass was norther - but the shifts are quite modest. a shift like we got in the last 48 hours of our last storm would be a difference maker. and we've got 120 to go lol It has been the outlier, and just made a move towards consensus. If the Euro makes a notable shift next run, I might stay interested. Places near the PA line probably have the best shot with this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 I think it trended better at 104hr. https://ibb.co/7jkTsL9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 1 minute ago, snowfan said: Come at me… If it's going at 1"+ hour rates like the run had it, that'll end up incorrect. Especially for northern spots where it kicks off between 7-10am. Probably not relevant anyway. But the snow depth map has sucked ass the 3 events we had this year. Gotta blend it with other, equally bad snow maps at least 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: If it's going at 1"+ hour rates like the run had it, that'll end up incorrect. Especially for northern spots where it kicks off between 7-10am. Probably not relevant anyway. But the snow depth map has sucked ass the 3 events we had this year. Gotta blend it with other, equally bad snow maps at least Crappy surface temps + midday usually doesn’t work too well unless you’re far N/W of the cities. I’d feel better about our chances if this was coming in overnight. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 If we've learned anything it's that some ass hairs are noisier than others 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 Just now, snowfan said: Crappy surface temps + midday usually doesn’t work too well unless you’re far N/W of the cities. I’d feel better about our chances if this was coming in overnight. No disagreement there Anyway - thru 96 it seems unlikely to me the GEFS is a significant cave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 It always warms my heart to see the snow depth maps posted here, but this is not the type of event for which they do well. They limit accumulation when surface temps and soil are warm, and they'll never capture the ability of heavy rates to overcome marginal thermodynamics. I'd probably either average the 10:1 and snow depth products or mentally adjust the 10:1 maps downward. Kuchera maps might be good too - I hate how generous they are with colder temps, but they seem to properly limit accumulations when the temperature is marginal. 5 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 I also would like the compromise. We historically do well with a low in S WV transferring to ORF and moving ENE. colder on temps just slightly north with features. Even though it was a pretty good run, do we close this and open something new before 0z to get the Euro to meet the GFS right where 18z was? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 20 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It’s not a bad run just shifts heavy precip a bit north. A bit? I went from 10” to 2”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 4 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: A bit? I went from 10” to 2”. Hey so did I. Ok. A lot? Better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Hey so did I. Ok. A lot? Better Not really a lot, just some areas the concentration of precip orientation was focused more NW and less of that dry slot given the primary transferred a bit cleaner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 GEFS maps are a lot uglier but really it’s just drier… maybe a bit north which I guess we can’t afford either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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