NorthArlington101 Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 Much like the OP… not a lot on the snow front but rather massive jump southward on the LP12z EPS6z EPS 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 On 2/8/2024 at 6:42 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Parts of Maine went from a foot plus to nothing on the Euro in a day. This is not an insignificant change. Of course, as we get closer there’s only so much change that is reasonably possible Expand No where close to the final outcome. That was a big move by the Euro. One more like that and it would look alot like the GFS 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 12z EPS snow mean 6z EPS snow mean 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 On 2/8/2024 at 7:14 PM, NorthArlington101 said: Much like the OP… not a lot on the snow front but rather massive jump southward on the LP 12z EPS 6z EPS Expand Looks to be slower which I think is what we want 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 On 2/8/2024 at 7:15 PM, NorthArlington101 said: 12z EPS snow mean 6z EPS snow mean Expand Certainly a notable shift south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 On 2/8/2024 at 7:14 PM, NorthArlington101 said: Much like the OP… not a lot on the snow front but rather massive jump southward on the LP 12z EPS 6z EPS Expand Hmm. This was a pretty big shift. We'll probably get a compromise, which isn't gonna do it for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 Pretty huge shift with 4-5 days still to go. Good trends as others have noted I’m not hugely optimistic but did anyone think the euro was gonna suddenly go all in on a dc snow storm after what it showed 12 hours ago? I think a compromise might get the northern parts of our area into decent snow but I’m not sure if the euro is done trending south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 On 2/8/2024 at 7:22 PM, stormtracker said: Hmm. This was a pretty big shift. We'll probably get a compromise, which isn't gonna do it for us.Or you could say, one more shift similar to this and we’re all in the game. It’s already happened this year…atmospheric memory for the win baby! . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 On 2/8/2024 at 7:14 PM, NorthArlington101 said: Much like the OP… not a lot on the snow front but rather massive jump southward on the LP 12z EPS 6z EPS Expand Great pickup, yeah, that is trending in the right direction. Rain/snow lines should be ignored for now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 On 2/8/2024 at 6:25 PM, snowmagnet said: DT yesterday said there was no way the MidAtlantic would get snow next week. So…. Expand Hmm how accurate is DT? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 On 2/8/2024 at 7:38 PM, MD Snow said: Or you could say, one more shift similar to this and we’re all in the game. It’s already happened this year…atmospheric memory for the win baby! . Expand I dunno...I'm just very skeptical. If 18z keeps it, I'll be excited for the 0z run...but I'm pretty sure the GFS is going to cave with either run. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 On 2/8/2024 at 7:45 PM, stormtracker said: I dunno...I'm just very skeptical. If 18z keeps it, I'll be excited for the 0z run...but I'm pretty sure the GFS is going to cave with either run. Expand It'll probably look like the 12z Euro at 18z then they'll both go south together at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 On 2/8/2024 at 7:22 PM, stormtracker said: Hmm. This was a pretty big shift. We'll probably get a compromise, which isn't gonna do it for us. Expand This has my attention. EPS trend since 12z yesterday 13 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 On 2/8/2024 at 7:51 PM, psuhoffman said: This has my attention. EPS trend since 12z yesterday Expand That definitely qualifies as a trend southward. Another move like that and the 2" line is touching Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 I mean...it is pretty clear that all the other guidance made a major move to the GFS. Obviously them meeting in the middle even now wouldn't be great, but I don't see any reason to think this thing has no chance based on the 12z suite, looks to me like a good argument to be made that the GFS is leading the way. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 On 2/8/2024 at 7:53 PM, DDweatherman said: That definitely qualifies as a trend southward. Another move like that and the 2" line is touching Baltimore. Expand Definitely a south trend!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 On 2/8/2024 at 7:51 PM, psuhoffman said: This has my attention. EPS trend since 12z yesterday Expand Yeah I didn't realize this obviously right after the deflating 12z op run. It does bring back the interest level for me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 Gfs ensembles strong support the op so id be surprised to see a big shift at 18z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 Want to see Gfs further south 18z. Put us in the compromise jackpot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2024 Author Share Posted February 8, 2024 What you want is a slower stronger storm. We’re getting rain on the front end. That much is certain. If we have a stronger storm it will pull in the cold air and get a quicker change to snow with heavier rates. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 One thing I will say I didn't like about the 12z GFS admittedly is h5 was a bit north of 6z despite the trend south with the low & transfer. May not be of the biggest significance since we still have a good pass, but nevertheless something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 On 2/8/2024 at 7:54 PM, North Balti Zen said: I mean...it is pretty clear that all the other guidance made a major move to the GFS. Obviously them meeting in the middle even now wouldn't be great, but I don't see any reason to think this thing has no chance based on the 12z suite, looks to me like a good argument to be made that the GFS is leading the way. Expand I realize we're a glass half empty forum for snow, but agree with this. The maps above show the clear shift towards a GFS solution - too early to say which 'camp' is going to be right. At least its nice to track something beyond -NAO signals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 18z NAM 500mb low is further north and faster vs 12z GFS at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2024 Author Share Posted February 8, 2024 On 2/8/2024 at 8:46 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said: 18z NAM 500mb low is further north and faster vs 12z GFS at the same time. Expand The NAM at 84 is where you wanna put your money. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2024 Author Share Posted February 8, 2024 On 2/8/2024 at 7:14 PM, NorthArlington101 said: Much like the OP… not a lot on the snow front but rather massive jump southward on the LP 12z EPS 6z EPS Expand Think that’s more a function of timing. Notice how much warmer we are at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 On 2/8/2024 at 8:00 PM, stormtracker said: Yeah I didn't realize this obviously right after the deflating 12z op run. It does bring back the interest level for me Expand Negligible effect for NOVA. I need to see more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 On 2/8/2024 at 7:41 PM, winter_warlock said: Hmm how accurate is DT? Lol Expand Exactly 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 On 2/8/2024 at 8:13 PM, konksw said: Want to see Gfs further south 18z. Put us in the compromise jackpot. Expand I’m in the bullseye on the GFS. It can stay put now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 ICON continues to cut to basically Pittsburgh before transferring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 On 2/8/2024 at 8:51 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Think that’s more a function of timing. Notice how much warmer we are at 12z. Expand I think they are inherently tied together... slower storm will likely be further south here. But don't disagree with what you are getting at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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