Damage In Tolland Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Would be cool and wet. Blah. Not a good week for vacation if holds unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Not a good week for vacation if holds unfortunately I think 1-2 days maybe meh on cape. Otherwise good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 GFS initialized by Ineedsnow? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 J/K it will be OTS but a little closer. PRE type rains pike north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 Feel like this is being dismissed a bit too early. It has stopped the trend west. Models seem a bit lost, but radar has looked okay for the past day or so. Once this gets off land the picture will be clearer. Still though, it looks decent considering the conditions. Seems to be somewhat symmetrical and decent outflow. It just needs an actual defined center lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GFS initialized by Ineedsnow? looks like the model ran an experiment to pass a cane the closest it could possibly come while meaning the lowest possible fun while doing so. ha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: looks like the model ran an experiment to pass a cane the closest it could possibly come while meaning the lowest possible fun while doing so. ha There is a ridge to the east trying, but that flow is just too westerly. Focus is more on the PRE rains imo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: There is a ridge to the east trying, but that flow is just too westerly. Focus is more on the PRE rains imo. yeah, that's been the specter with this one for days. I haven't really been keeping up on threads so not sure who gets credit and when but this has been missing some canonical features. No pulsed -NAO over the western limb, while ..yeah there's a trough near 90 W but the saddle bag structure is too opened up like you're saying. I guess there's time to change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GFS initialized by Ineedsnow? That's alot closer though... we watch 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 24 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: That's alot closer though... we watch If it's closer it is because it traverses land and becomes hangover breath gusts ad rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 Maybe we can get a tornado watch from it at least? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: If it's closer it is because it traverses land and becomes hangover breath gusts ad rain. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 Maybe a closer approach, but like @CoastalWx said the flow isn’t what you need for a more direct shot. Could easily see eastward shifts once there’s a well defined center guidance can effectively model. We watch in case there are changes with the trough but it’s unlikely to change that much right now. The PRE signal has been consistent however, so that’s definitely something to watch for NE and Atlantic Canada. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 14 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Maybe a closer approach, but like @CoastalWx said the flow isn’t what you need for a more direct shot. Could easily see eastward shifts once there’s a well defined center guidance can effectively model. We watch in case there are changes with the trough but it’s unlikely to change that much right now. The PRE signal has been consistent however, so that’s definitely something to watch for NE and Atlantic Canada. With that high to the east I don't think it would take much change with the trough to pull it up.. as of now though the pre rains look intense for someone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: With that high to the east I don't think it would take much change with the trough to pull it up.. as of now though the pre rains look intense for someone. I will be floored if that thing gets to ACK. But when I mean ACK I mean moving over the island due to the low being offshore...not some junky low coming east after going over 1000 miles of land. I still think it will take a lot of work. To me the PRE stuff will be the issue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: With that high to the east I don't think it would take much change with the trough to pull it up.. as of now though the pre rains look intense for someone. The high to the east helps prevent a quick escape, but troughs are king. That needs a lot of work. I know you know this but it’s not like a wintertime coastal, a BM track won’t cut it for meaningful (non-PRE) impacts around here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 Man the Euro is just a lost cause at this point. Waffling wildly after being consistently wrong early. Hate to see it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Man the Euro is just a lost cause at this point. Waffling wildly after being consistently wrong early. Hate to see it. 12z Euro Day 10 of whatever is left goes to Tennessee lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 The Euro is attempting to modulate those latter frames' synoptic hemisphere toward what I was describing in the August thread. This run appears to be emerging that. During those latter ranges it's now raising heights N-NE of HA ... That transmits a pattern reversal down stream over the continent - in the summer, the wave lengths are less coherent than winter so ... But still, there it is. Also, notice the heights over the NAO domain, particularly the western limb? there's zip blocking and longitudinal flow type setting up. That will also draw the westerlies N along the EC, and then WAR retros west underneath. There's actually ( ironically) a growing signal there for a heat wave in the OV to NE region - mind you ...this is all evolving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 12z EPS is interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 even if weak the flooding could be a big problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 8 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Seems like could be headed that way . Canes do things to patterns . Ensembles and ops are soakers Confidence drops off considerably Wednesday and beyond as global models are beginning to come into agreement on a potential tropical cyclone moving up the east coast mid to late week. The potential development and track of this system could affect the forecast in southern New England later next week. Check the latest Tropical Weather Outlook from The National Hurricane Center for more details. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Confidence drops off considerably Wednesday and beyond as global models are beginning to come into agreement on a potential tropical cyclone moving up the east coast mid to late week. The potential development and track of this system could affect the forecast in southern New England later next week. Check the latest Tropical Weather Outlook from The National Hurricane Center for more details. we watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 18z GFS might be good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 we 18z GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 over eastern MA that's how you do it!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 No way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: No way we take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: we take We sell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 Just now, CoastalWx said: We sell Run right from Kevin's basement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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