2024 - tracking the tropics

[ROOSTA]

Almost in radar range. Discrete cells - waterspouts galore KBYX.
Not a good sign for RFQ EF spin-ups tomorrow.   

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Tampa Bay area has been ground zero for days and there is nothing to solidly indicate that won't be the case +/- 30mi N or S.  A super populated area that is all under the gun.

[forkyfork]

a tropical depression is when the west pac ruins winter in the east 

[tamarack]

13 hours ago, dryslot said:

Its awful, My cousin lives in Sarasota year round, My SIL winters in Largo, Both places will be gone i feel bad for all down there but nothing any of us can do, Its in the lords hands.

My younger brother's primary residence is near Cape Canaveral and the current center-of-cone has Milton passing 10-15 miles south of there as a strong Cat 1.  That close to the center, even on the left side, won't be a pleasant place.  One hopes they're at their 2nd home in northern Alabama.

[Typhoon Tip]

11 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Tampa Bay area has been ground zero for days and there is nothing to solidly indicate that won't be the case +/- 30mi N or S.  A super populated area that is all under the gun.

that's all vs mere tc conditions spanning that range - that's huge

[Typhoon Tip]

https://radar.weather.gov/?settings=v1_eyJhZ2VuZGEiOnsiaWQiOiJsb2NhbCIsImNlbnRlciI6Wy04Mi40MDIsMjcuNzA1XSwibG9jYXRpb24iOm51bGwsInpvb20iOjcsImZpbHRlciI6IldTUi04OEQiLCJsYXllciI6InNyX2JyZWYiLCJzdGF0aW9uIjoiS1RCVyJ9LCJhbmltYXRpbmciOnRydWUsImJhc2UiOiJzdGFuZGFyZCIsImFydGNjIjpmYWxzZSwiY291bnR5IjpmYWxzZSwiY3dhIjpmYWxzZSwicmZjIjpmYWxzZSwic3RhdGUiOmZhbHNlLCJtZW51Ijp0cnVlLCJzaG9ydEZ1c2VkT25seSI6dHJ1ZSwib3BhY2l0eSI6eyJhbGVydHMiOjAuMjgsImxvY2FsIjowLjYsImxvY2FsU3RhdGlvbnMiOjAuOCwibmF0aW9uYWwiOjAuNn19

[MarkO]

Fortunately, it appears shear and dry air are weakening the system, along with a possible eyewall replacement. It also appears from radar that winds along the west coast of Florida are likely coming out of a southeast direction and not piling up surge along the majority of the FL coast. But once those winds turn northerly, some of those bays are going to start filling up and/or preventing tides from leaving the bays. Still some concern for the surge between Ft. Myers and Sarasota, but TB/St. Pete may luck out once again. Of course this depends upon the final track. A northerly jog now followed by an easterly one still needs to be watched.

[Snowcrazed71]

Looking at the satellite imagery, it seems to me like the storm took a jog to the north a bit in the last few frames. Although you can't really see an eye now with the satellite, the radar really shows that center with a strong closed circulation. So although there may be a little bit of weakening going on, it's not weakening in a way where it's going to be A significant difference

[dryslot]

Environment is getting a bit hostile for Milton, There was a lot of up welling off the coast from Helene so Milton is moving over cooler waters too.

[Typhoon Tip]

i'm hoping for it to just unexpectedly come on board coughing up 74 mph gusts of anitclimax .. just for the schadenfreude of watching all the "blow" back - the real storm

[Hoth]

Even from a ways away, you can see massive breakers off Siesta Key beach. Tops are getting sheared off by the wind as they roll in. 

[Torch Tiger]

Looks like crap.  Surge will be big, and the tors/svr is wild.  However wind threat (esp. inland) looks diminished quite a bit besides gw or microbursty instances.

[Typhoon Tip]

unless this is just some weird wobble this isn't going to be much of a surge issue for tampa bay.  rad clearly is moving a busted open ravioli of an eye square on sarasota

the weakening nearing land was well modeled but the track seems to be a problem - a little

[dendrite]

92mph on the KF45 (North Palm Beach) AWOS. 

Probably a direct hit from a tor.

[tavwtby]

That was one of the biggest svr outbreaks associated with a tropical system I think I ever saw. NWS Miami reports 98 warnings today alone, I think that was the number...my cousin in Jupiter had a drill bit go through there about an hour ago, couple of homes damaged and a fire next door.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said:

Looks like crap.  Surge will be big, and the tors/svr is wild.  However wind threat (esp. inland) looks diminished quite a bit besides gw or microbursty instances.

It will still be awful for many but rain, wind and surge is likely to underperform many weenies over inflated expectations. 
I’m not downplaying and have no interest in being in Florida right now but I think many dodged a bullet relative to potential from this system. 

[Torch Tiger]

Yeah it's a big hit, no doubt about that. 

[dendrite]

32 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

It will still be awful for many but rain, wind and surge is likely to underperform many weenies over inflated expectations. 
I’m not downplaying and have no interest in being in Florida right now but I think many dodged a bullet relative to potential from this system. 

The surge is already built up to some extent after 2 days of cat5.

7 tors/spouts here just offshore. 

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The surge is already built up to some extent after 2 days of cat5.

7 tors/spouts here just offshore. 

Thats a crazy velocity scan.  Jeez.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The surge is already built up to some extent after 2 days of cat5.

7 tors/spouts here just offshore. 

Yeah, I’m very interested in seeing the final tornado count. 
The tornadoes will end up being the background story relative to surge expectations. I think the same thing happened with Helene.  Less populated parts of the coast took a major hit but nobody was paying attention to the flooding up north until it was underway. 

[Modfan2]

Crazy amount of tornadoes in my old area (Martin/St Lucie Counties); have been through 3-4 Hurricanes in my years there and never tornadoes like this. Will be fatalities in St Lucie County from this outbreak 

[kdxken]

On 10/8/2024 at 3:03 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

 

Catastrophic Surge Event Likely for Tampa Bay Predawn on Thursday From Hurricane Milton

Final Call for Hurricane Milton

Current Situation:

As of 2 PM, EDT, the eye of Hurricane Milton is centered near latitude 22.5N and longitude 88.2W, or approximately 520 miles southwest of Tampa, FL. 

 

Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph and the minimum central pressure is 923 mb. The system is moving ENE at 9 mph and an acceleration more towards the NE is anticipated tonight. 

 

Final Track Forecast for Milton:

The track forecast philosophy is identical to First Call issued on Saturday. The trough currently amplifying in the Gulf of Mexico will turn Milton more towards the northeast and accelerate it tonight. 

 

 

Then around the time the storm makes landfall on the west coast of Florida during the predawn hours of early Thursday AM, the system will fall more under the influence of a fast, zonal flow of westerlies along the northern periphery of the upper ridge centered over the Greater Antilles, as the Gulf of Mexico trough begins to de-amplify. The will cause yet another recurve back to more of a due easterly or east-northeast heading. When exactly this occurs will be crucial to the point of landfall, as if it happens prior to landfall, then Tamp Bay may be spared the worst of the surge. This would be a worst case scary for the Venice to Forty Myers stretch of shoreline. However, if it happens after landfall, then the storm is likely to make it further north and place the Tampa Bay area in greater peril. Currently the consensus of model guidance favors the former scenario, which would be ideal for Tampa Bay.

 

However, as was the case with Hurricane Helene, sometimes the consensus is incorrect.

 

Final Intensity Forecast for Milton:

The most favorable period for rapid intensification was forecast in First Call to be Monday night into today (Tuesday), however, the cyclone was able to consolidate the fledgling central dense overcast faster than anticipated. In fact, the rate of Milton's intensification on Monday was so astounding that it managed to become the fifth strongest Atlantic hurricane on record, with a minimum central pressure of 897 mb and  an eye diameter of just 3.5 miles at peak intensity.

 

 This immense and earlier than anticipated intensification took Milton from a category one hurricane to a category five in just 12 hours. While it is difficult to exactly why this occurred, is likely due to the very small nature of the circulation in conjunction with the fact that is passed over an area of very high TCHP just northwest of the Yucatan, as its outflow was being aided to the north by the approaching trough. 

 

While this historic bout intensification on Monday was both absolutely mesmerizing and unanticipated, it does little to alter the intensity forecast moving forward. The system recently completed an eye wall replacement cycle, during which the tiny initial inner eye wall collapsed, leading to a sudden spike in minimum central pressure to 942 mb and associated drop in maximum sustained winds from 180 mph to 145 mph.

 

 

However, clearly the process has completed and the system's new 12 nm wide eye has taken over. This has allowed for some re-intensification and some additional recovery is possible over the next 12 hours or so. Conditions during this stretch will remain quite favorable, as the system is just now entering the loop current and remains in a moist environment with low wind shear.

 

 Although this was originally the specified time for rapid intensification in the First Call, the extreme initial intensity and post eye wall replacement cycle structure may act to limit intensification from this point onward to a degree, however, it is likely that Milton regains category five status and there are already signs that this is indeed imminent. 

 

Milton has approximately 12-15 hours left for intensification before it begins to be more heavily influenced by the mid latitude trough amplifying in the western Gulf of Mexico, which is already beginning to impinge on the far northwestern quadrant of the system's outflow.

 

 

Milton should be encountering enough wind shear by the predawn hours of Wednesday that any intensification should have halted and weakening will commence during the daylight hours.

 

Note that while the hurricane will eventually encounter upwards of 50 kts of wind shear over the final 18-24 hours leading up to landfall early Thursday, the adverse impact of said shear will be somewhat mitigated by the fact that it Milton will be largely moving with and not against it. 

 

 

Be that as it may, the wind shear should be sufficient as to disrupt the core enough to allow dry air in association with the incoming trough to be entrained into the circulation, thus hastening the rate of weakening overnight Wednesday and for the final 12 or so hours prior to landfall. This will cause the circulation to become very lopsided with the major convection heavily biased towards the northern semicircle of the circulation, which will likely act to augment seemingly land averse wobbles that tropical systems often take when close to land.

 

This could entail a delay in the more eastern recurve until after the system is already shore and result in a landfall just to the north of Tampa Bay, which would result in a catastrophic 10-15' + of storm surge the likes of which this region has not seen since 1921.

**Hurricane Milton is likely to be one of the costliest natural disasters in US history. Please heed evacuation orders because it does not need to be one of the most deadly**.

Final Call:

 

FIRST CALL: Issued 10pm Saturday 10/7:

Not too bad! Landfall was 60 mi south and the winds were less but the pressure was pretty close to dead on. Time for your winter forecast

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, kdxken said:

Not too bad! Landfall was 60 mi south and the winds were less but the pressure was pretty close to dead on. Time for your winter forecast

I'll do the post mortem tomorrow...I'm pretty disappointed with that forecast.

[WxWatcher007]

If @ineedsnow made it to Lakeland he’s getting a hell of a show. Gusting to hurricane force there. Could go even higher in the coming hours. 

[LSC97wxnut]

I know it's an aside to what individuals have lost in Florida, but the drone video of the remains or the Trop's roof is amazing.

Interesting if they find out what caused the initial failure.  Was it purely the wind or did the torrential rain cause some sort of ponding issue?

[40/70 Benchmark]

 

Hurricane Milton Verification: Devil is in the Details of a Flawed Forecast

Style of Communication is Every Bit as Crucial as the Forecast

Forecast versus Reality

The Eastern Mass Weather Final Call for Hurricane Milton was not egregiously poor from a technical standpoint, as the predicated landfall locale of Madeira Beach was a mere 59 miles from Milton's Siesta Key rendezvous with the state of Florida. 

 

 

The storm did indeed reach that secondary peak of 165mph as forecast, but it was at 5pm Tuesday instead of 11pm.

The storm also made landfall 7.5 hours sooner and slightly weaker than forecast, with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph and a minimum central pressure of 954 mb at 830pm on Wednesday evening. This compared to the forecast of 130 mph with a 946 mb minimum central pressure at 4am Thursday.

 

 

While notable, these are certainly within a reasonable margin for error considering the challenges that exist with respect to even contemporary tropical forecasting.  However, the most glaring error was not with respect to the forecast itself, but rather the manner in which it was conveyed.

 

Social Media has Eroded the Value of Forecasts

Social media has granted anyone instant access to everyone, which has clouded intentions and introduced ulterior motives into play due to the need to distinguish oneself from the masses in vying for the attention of the masses. The end result is that the manner and style of communication used to convey crucial information is altered in an effort to be the first to report it and to attract the most attention in doing so. This compromises the product because the primary emphasis is no longer placed solely on communicating an accurate forecast in a responsible manner due to these competing interests. This issue exacerbates the challenge that any passionate forecaster faces in trying to harness said passion for extreme weather in an effort to issue the most objective and this accurate forecast possible. When reframed properly failed forecasts represent an opportunity for crucial reflection. The Eastern Mass Weather forecast for Hurricane Milton highlighted the anticipated impact on a specific locale, and in so doing, used the word "catastrophic" to characterize the degree of surge for the densely populated Tampa Bay area. In hindsight, this should not have headlined the forecast. Instead, there should have been a more nuanced approach utilized in an effort to maintain an adequate balance between conveying the threat level and the need to also communicate the degree of inherent uncertainty. Future efforts need to remain more mindful of this in an effort to distinguish from the mass, rampant sensationalism that is fostered by irresponsible individuals and entities alike on social media.

 

Why the Forecast Failed

The reason that 100% of any forecaster's energy needs to be allocated towards the issuance of the best forecast possible is simply because it is such a difficult enough endeavor when there are no ulterior motives at play and  the forecast is being communicated in the most measured, responsible manner possible. This is especially true with respect to forecasting tropical systems, as the most subtle of details can have such large implications on an outcome that has such a profound impacts on the lives of so many. This was very evident with Hurricane Milton, as it was explicitly expressed in the Final Call that the precise timing of the right, or easterly turn relative to landfall would be crucial as to whether or not the Tampa Bay areas received the catastrophic surge. 

 

Ultimately, the theory that the lopsided circulation would lead to a slightly later recurve was incorrect, which is why the "catastrophic" surge verified as a mere 2.46' at 7:30am EDT this morning.

 

 

 Precisely why this turn to the east was not in fact delayed may her be known for certain.

 

However, the fact that Milton weakened slightly more than anticipated may have played a role since more intense systems, with higher cloud tops are often steered more to the north by incoming troughs. The truth is that the forecast in vacuum was not of poor quality, however, the manner in which is was conveyed was of poor quality and that needs to be better moving forward. More attention needs to be played on communicating uncertainty as opposed to tacitly placing less emphasis on uncertainty in an effort to feed the social media driven ego that has claimed so many high quality forecasters. 

 

FINAL GRADE: C-

 

 

[metagraphica]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Social Media has Eroded the Value of Forecasts

Social media has granted anyone instant access to everyone, which has clouded intentions and introduced ulterior motives into play due to the need to distinguish oneself from the masses in vying for the attention of the masses.

 

 

Fantastic!!!!!

[Snowcrazed71]

What a storm to track. I am saddened for the destruction that people saw with the Storm Surge, Heavy Winds, Flooding Rains, and Tornadic activity. 

Not that I am wishing for more, but are the forecast models still trying to bring another Cane into the area around the 17-18th? If so, hoping it's a weaker form, but it would make its way up the coast to give us some rains that we desperately need.

[ROOSTA]

Surprise, surprise my power is out.

Only one big pine fell, lucky. Only a foot of rain, highest gust 85mph.

[Typhoon Tip]