ineedsnow Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 We watch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: We watch It's gone. GFS not scrapes western FL and meanders off the SE coast. The flow makes it impossible for SNE. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 Yeah slow and meandering is not the way to get good tropical up here. Now if that ridge were flexing with the storm off the SE and that trough at D7 were more shallow or better yet wanted to cutoff in the lakes, then it’d be more interesting up here. The most interesting realistic thing for SNE right now is whether this can produce a PRE. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: It's gone. GFS not scrapes western FL and meanders off the SE coast. The flow makes it impossible for SNE. The flow can change in a weeks time 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 I’ll probably get weenied but any chance the flow 8 days from now changes? edit: thanks ineedsnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 8 days from now there could also not be a storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: It's gone. GFS not scrapes western FL and meanders off the SE coast. The flow makes it impossible for SNE. Ineedsnow is like the reincarnation of James. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 10 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: The flow can change in a weeks time If it strikes us, it will have already moved inland over the southeast. There is no scenario at play where this thing gets pulled quickly to the north just off of the coast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 16 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: The flow can change in a weeks time It won't. Pretty uniform that the westerlies through at least 8/9 keep it south. You all need to remember that you need a deep trough in the Ohio Valley to bring anything north. We have nothing even close to it. Your best bet is some leftover rain and hangover breathe type gusts from 1015 MB low 10-14 days from now. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It won't. Pretty uniform that the westerlies through at least 8/9 keep it south. You all need to remember that you need a deep trough in the Ohio Valley to bring anything north. We have nothing even close to it. Your best bet is some leftover rain and hangover breathe type gusts from 1015 MB low 10-14 days from now. Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 Good reference point when looking at 500h 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: It won't. Pretty uniform that the westerlies through at least 8/9 keep it south. You all need to remember that you need a deep trough in the Ohio Valley to bring anything north. We have nothing even close to it. Your best bet is some leftover rain and hangover breathe type gusts from 1015 MB low 10-14 days from now. Most do, like the smeared h5 dataset shows a large negative anomaly there. But Bob/Carol did not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 I’m reading a magazine from August 1954. Coincidence? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 59 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Most do, like the smeared h5 dataset shows a large negative anomaly there. But Bob/Carol did not. Bob had an initial s/w trough lure it towards HSE, but then moved out. However a bowling ball was diving into the Midwest on the 18-19th and that allowed Bob to move N then NNE over us. Still the same idea pretty much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Bob had an initial s/w trough lure it towards HSE, but then moved out. However a bowling ball was diving into the Midwest on the 18-19th and that allowed Bob to move N then NNE over us. Still the same idea pretty much. wasn't a deep trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 Interesting eps member 2 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said: wasn't a deep trough Pretty deep imo for August. The point is, ain’t happening with that 500 look. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Pretty deep imo for August. The point is, ain’t happening with that 500 look. We track 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 https://texmex.mit.edu/ftp/pub/emanuel/PAPERS/wu95a.pdf this is always a great read, to nerd out to, especially the results/general findings... on Bob 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Pretty deep imo for August. The point is, ain’t happening with that 500 look. Figured you'd take a stroll over to the tropical thread and piss on their Cheerios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 56 minutes ago, kdxken said: Figured you'd take a stroll over to the tropical thread and piss on their Cheerios? Why not? It’s fun. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 70th anniversary of Carol this month..Kind of ridiculous that except for Bob hitting parts of the Cape, Boston proper has had zilch since then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 8 hours ago, CoastalWx said: It won't. Pretty uniform that the westerlies through at least 8/9 keep it south. You all need to remember that you need a deep trough in the Ohio Valley to bring anything north. We have nothing even close to it. Your best bet is some leftover rain and hangover breathe type gusts from 1015 MB low 10-14 days from now. While many don't agree, SNE threats or hits are very easy to see coming given the very limited upper pattern that allows it to happen. As you state, it isn't happening without a deep Ohio Valley trough. Trying to thread the needle with other upper-level setups is always a lost cause. Blocking high off to the east/northeast is helpful, but the OH Valley trough is always the main driver. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 21 minutes ago, FXWX said: While many don't agree, SNE threats or hits are very easy to see coming given the very limited upper pattern that allows it to happen. As you state, it isn't happening without a deep Ohio Valley trough. Trying to thread the needle with other upper-level setups is always a lost cause. Blocking high off to the east/northeast is helpful, but the OH Valley trough is always the main driver. Totally agree—you can almost always see the threat from range, or at least get a sense that it could trend that way. Isaias is a good example. Henri probably a counter example but fairly quickly I think we could see it was worth watching. I do think the right kind of ridge could theoretically bring some sort of eastern NE tropical threat without much of a classic Midwest trough, but that’d be like threading multiple needles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 Pretty much the only impacts modeled. Maybe some rain from frontal interaction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 Wet week coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Wet week coming Let’s hope not 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Let’s hope not Seems like could be headed that way . Canes do things to patterns . Ensembles and ops are soakers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Seems like could be headed that way . Canes do things to patterns . Ensembles and ops are soakers Would be cool and wet. Blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Would be cool and wet. Blah. I will take that over this. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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