ROOSTA Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 2 minutes ago, tamarack said: The Feb 1978 blizzard caused 99 deaths and destroyed or caused major damage to 1700 single-family houses. Peak gust was 92 mph at CHH. These numbers pale compared to Helene (and likely Milton as well) but are still significant, perhaps the highest since 3/1888. Written with a tinge of sarcasm. I'm well aware of the destructive nature of storms in New England. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 yeah this isn't nearly as impressive this morning ... we'll see where the day goes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 it may actually be moving too slow to sustain that ceiling intensity. although it is nearing the loop current ohc source... but for the time being, it almost looks stalled on the last 3 hours ( or very slow) worth of sat cinema. could be some overturning - speculation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Its expected to pick up speed and turn more NE later today, The last couple scans looks like TS are starting to fire back up on the NW and Western flank as the eye looks to start closing back off, It also looks to expand before making landfall as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Distinctly noticing a wobble to the right, lost the symmetry from its peak. EYE is contracting to a pinhole. Anyone have the latest vort data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Looks like some strengthening going on with Milton again as pressure looks to have dropped 4mb down to 925mb. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Catastrophic Surge Event Likely for Tampa Bay Predawn on Thursday From Hurricane Milton Final Call for Hurricane Milton Current Situation: As of 2 PM, EDT, the eye of Hurricane Milton is centered near latitude 22.5N and longitude 88.2W, or approximately 520 miles southwest of Tampa, FL. Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph and the minimum central pressure is 923 mb. The system is moving ENE at 9 mph and an acceleration more towards the NE is anticipated tonight. Final Track Forecast for Milton: The track forecast philosophy is identical to First Call issued on Saturday. The trough currently amplifying in the Gulf of Mexico will turn Milton more towards the northeast and accelerate it tonight. Then around the time the storm makes landfall on the west coast of Florida during the predawn hours of early Thursday AM, the system will fall more under the influence of a fast, zonal flow of westerlies along the northern periphery of the upper ridge centered over the Greater Antilles, as the Gulf of Mexico trough begins to de-amplify. The will cause yet another recurve back to more of a due easterly or east-northeast heading. When exactly this occurs will be crucial to the point of landfall, as if it happens prior to landfall, then Tamp Bay may be spared the worst of the surge. This would be a worst case scary for the Venice to Forty Myers stretch of shoreline. However, if it happens after landfall, then the storm is likely to make it further north and place the Tampa Bay area in greater peril. Currently the consensus of model guidance favors the former scenario, which would be ideal for Tampa Bay. However, as was the case with Hurricane Helene, sometimes the consensus is incorrect. Final Intensity Forecast for Milton: The most favorable period for rapid intensification was forecast in First Call to be Monday night into today (Tuesday), however, the cyclone was able to consolidate the fledgling central dense overcast faster than anticipated. In fact, the rate of Milton's intensification on Monday was so astounding that it managed to become the fifth strongest Atlantic hurricane on record, with a minimum central pressure of 897 mb and an eye diameter of just 3.5 miles at peak intensity. This immense and earlier than anticipated intensification took Milton from a category one hurricane to a category five in just 12 hours. While it is difficult to exactly why this occurred, is likely due to the very small nature of the circulation in conjunction with the fact that is passed over an area of very high TCHP just northwest of the Yucatan, as its outflow was being aided to the north by the approaching trough. While this historic bout intensification on Monday was both absolutely mesmerizing and unanticipated, it does little to alter the intensity forecast moving forward. The system recently completed an eye wall replacement cycle, during which the tiny initial inner eye wall collapsed, leading to a sudden spike in minimum central pressure to 942 mb and associated drop in maximum sustained winds from 180 mph to 145 mph. However, clearly the process has completed and the system's new 12 nm wide eye has taken over. This has allowed for some re-intensification and some additional recovery is possible over the next 12 hours or so. Conditions during this stretch will remain quite favorable, as the system is just now entering the loop current and remains in a moist environment with low wind shear. Although this was originally the specified time for rapid intensification in the First Call, the extreme initial intensity and post eye wall replacement cycle structure may act to limit intensification from this point onward to a degree, however, it is likely that Milton regains category five status and there are already signs that this is indeed imminent. Milton has approximately 12-15 hours left for intensification before it begins to be more heavily influenced by the mid latitude trough amplifying in the western Gulf of Mexico, which is already beginning to impinge on the far northwestern quadrant of the system's outflow. Milton should be encountering enough wind shear by the predawn hours of Wednesday that any intensification should have halted and weakening will commence during the daylight hours. Note that while the hurricane will eventually encounter upwards of 50 kts of wind shear over the final 18-24 hours leading up to landfall early Thursday, the adverse impact of said shear will be somewhat mitigated by the fact that it Milton will be largely moving with and not against it. Be that as it may, the wind shear should be sufficient as to disrupt the core enough to allow dry air in association with the incoming trough to be entrained into the circulation, thus hastening the rate of weakening overnight Wednesday and for the final 12 or so hours prior to landfall. This will cause the circulation to become very lopsided with the major convection heavily biased towards the northern semicircle of the circulation, which will likely act to augment seemingly land averse wobbles that tropical systems often take when close to land. This could entail a delay in the more eastern recurve until after the system is already shore and result in a landfall just to the north of Tampa Bay, which would result in a catastrophic 10-15' + of storm surge the likes of which this region has not seen since 1921. **Hurricane Milton is likely to be one of the costliest natural disasters in US history. Please heed evacuation orders because it does not need to be one of the most deadly**. Final Call: FIRST CALL: Issued 10pm Saturday 10/7: 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 That’s a quick recovery from last night’s ERC and possible mild interaction with the tip of the Yucatan. Looks quite robust and ramping again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 7 minutes ago, weathafella said: That’s a quick recovery from last night’s ERC and possible mild interaction with the tip of the Yucatan. Looks quite robust and ramping again. ya I wouldn't be surprised if recon finds a storm close to yesterdays peak when they get there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 No doubt in my mind it’s a 5 again. Truly incredible to witness in the Gulf at this time of year. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 It's definitely a super rare system, moving east- west! and now "most likely" near or Cat 5 again, with another period of intensification likely. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 The further S this tracks the better as far as I'm concerned. Milton appears to be RI to maybe challenge the lowest pressure record once again. My adrenaline is pumping. Scary to think of the damage in Coastal communities as well as inland direct path. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 38 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: No doubt in my mind it’s a 5 again. Truly incredible to witness in the Gulf at this time of year. Undoubtedly... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 dead season 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 big'un! cat 5! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 903 jeez 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 We may Wilma this right to LF 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 the pressure just stoned to 905 mb ... the posted wind being 165 mph may in fact be in the process of increasing because of response lag. and i'm not sure we've seen the lowest pressure yet - 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Will it undergo another ERC before landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 30 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Will it undergo another ERC before landfall? I’m thinking yes. Comes ashore as a strong category three with a greatly expanded wind field. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 The chances of this happening are probably 1% but could you imagine if this fantasy time frame GFS ever came to fruition? Three huge hurricanes within one month. Heartache, cost and politics... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Well, it took some serious cajoling, but we finally prevailed on my 94 year old grandmother to leave her stuff and GTFO of Siesta Key. Her building will likely be toast after tomorrow. 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 A beauty 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 4 minutes ago, Hoth said: Well, it took some serious cajoling, but we finally prevailed on my 94 year old grandmother to leave her stuff and GTFO of Siesta Key. Her building will likely be toast after tomorrow. My 77 year old sister-in-law lives at her 1970s house in Bradenton, Florida. 5 miles inland, 19 feet above sea level. She is staying no matter what I tell her. She even has family in Sanford FL in a new house but she will not go. I did get her to put her car in her garage. It is what it is. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said: My 77 year old sister-in-law lives at her 1970s house in Bradenton, Florida. 5 miles inland, 19 feet above sea level. She is staying no matter what I tell her. She even has family in Sanford FL in a new house but she will not go. I did get her to put her car in her garage. It is what it is. I'm sorry to hear it. I certainly hope she comes through okay. It will be a scary lesson for her at the very least. My grandmother would've been suicidal to stay. She is literally on the beach on the third floor. I suspect I'll be going down there to try to salvage whatever is left in a week or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 9 minutes ago, dryslot said: A beauty How low will it go before another ERC? Perfect symmetry. All systems go. LF earlier and stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 2 minutes ago, ROOSTA said: How low will it go before another ERC? Perfect symmetry. All systems go. LF earlier and stronger. Not sure it will get back in the 8's before the next ERC but a strong cat 3 before LF is definitely in play, Looks to be moving more NE too now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 11 minutes ago, dryslot said: Not sure it will get back in the 8's before the next ERC but a strong cat 3 before LF is definitely in play, Looks to be moving more NE too now. Yes, gaining more LAT than LON presently and not a wobble. My call straight into TB. Call it THE TB12 payback for Pats fans. LOL j/k Serious stuff right there. ****** PSU website has 1 minute refresh with better resolution for SAT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 27 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: My 77 year old sister-in-law lives at her 1970s house in Bradenton, Florida. 5 miles inland, 19 feet above sea level. She is staying no matter what I tell her. She even has family in Sanford FL in a new house but she will not go. I did get her to put her car in her garage. It is what it is. Tell her to move the car so the bumper is touching the garage door...added support. As Joe Biden would say..."no joke"! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 2 minutes ago, ROOSTA said: Yes, gaining more LAT than LON presently and not a wobble. My call straight into TB. Call it THE TB12 payback for Pats fans. LOL j/k Serious stuff right there. Its awful, My cousin lives in Sarasota year round, My SIL winters in Largo, Both places will be gone i feel bad for all down there but nothing any of us can do, Its in the lords hands. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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