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2024 - tracking the tropics


mcglups
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bullish on the intensity forecast .. now lower category 5 by tuesday evening

right now on ir the eye has the dreaded pin-prick look  - not sure what the dimensions really are. it may just be an artifact nuance but in and of itself the teeny eye axis surrounded by -90c ring has been noted of very deep bombs.   think wilma -

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Caught between the adrenalin rush from tracking, watching it bomb-out and the catastrophic damage this could cause.
Family picked a bad week to come down to Disney. The wind-field radii is going to be expansive and strong. Cone is narrowing!
How low will he go?  

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Milton takes everyone’s attention right now, but the follow up signal in the western Caribbean that the GFS has had is getting a little more EPS support each day. The lid has been blown off and something is going to need to put it back on to stop the train of nukes.

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18 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

150 now 940 mb dropped 32 mb in 4 hours 

yeah, i was mentioning the physical presentation on satellite has that extremely small eye radii look that noted very deep bombs have had in the past.  wilma is great example of that.  

i wasn't sure at the time if that was not just a mimicry based on incidental cloud morphology but seeing that 32 in 4 hour thing - this may as well be a f'n tornado.

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26 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Milton takes everyone’s attention right now, but the follow up signal in the western Caribbean that the GFS has had is getting a little more EPS support each day. The lid has been blown off and something is going to need to put it back on to stop the train of nukes.

I haven’t looked. Models still have it running up the coast ?

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16 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s always a low likelihood of a direct hit up here, but it’s something worth a casual eye. 

Obviously way out there, but that depiction is a nothing burger for 99.9% of the area. But as you said, it’s always worth a look. At 12 days out,  we know that won’t be the track of whatever forms.  So as you said, a casual eye is warranted.  

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11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Obviously way out there, but that depiction is a nothing burger for 99.9% of the area. But as you said, it’s always worth a look. At 12 days out,  we know that won’t be the track of whatever forms.  So as you said, a casual eye is warranted.  

At this range, I just want to see that there’s a visible seedling and generally favorable upper level steering pattern for a northward track. It looks like both boxes are tentatively checked, but of course all that can change. 

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25 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

At this range, I just want to see that there’s a visible seedling and generally favorable upper level steering pattern for a northward track. It looks like both boxes are tentatively checked, but of course all that can change. 

Eyes back on Milton.

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I think this summer has changed my mindset about wanting to relocate down to the west coast of Florida when I finally get to retire. Not just because of these hurricanes but a lot of it is. Hurricane insurance is apparently so cost prohibitive that people are going without it. 

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man that could be a perfect scenario to achieve absolute destruction if that plays out ...looks like - at this time - the consensus puts the right eye wall over the southern inlet to tampa's bay, with the low pressure's core passing over the northern shore. 

that would drive a near physically maximized storm surge mass, drawn up by regionally historically deep barometric pressure, into a narrowing geographic scenario.   wtf 

as far as the wind, the best would be if an ewr could occur - but that's also no guarantee.   typically aft of an ewr, the system spreads it's ise over a larger envelopment, lowering some of the inward pg stress that tends to ease off on the wind throttle.   but the pressure could still remain very deep, and with all that wind momentum working sea as it encroaches upon that bay area

place head between knees, kiss ass goodbye

lucky there's a couple of days - least they got that goin for em

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7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

man that could be a perfect scenario to achieve absolute destruction if that plays out ...looks like - at this time - the consensus puts the right eye wall over the southern inlet to tampa's bay, with the low pressure's core passing over the northern shore. 

that would drive a near physically maximized storm surge mass, drawn up by regionally historically deep barometric pressure, into narrowing a geographic scenario.   wtf 

as far as the wind, the best would be if an ewr could occur - but that's also no guarantee.   typically aft of an ewr, the system spreads it's ise over a larger envelopment, lowering some of the inward pg stress that tends to ease off on the wind throttle.   but the pressure could still remain very deep, and with all that wind momentum working sea as it encroaches upon that bay area

place head between knees, kiss ass goodbye

lucky there's a couple of days - least they got that goin for em

Hey John... good friend and a former student of mine is the MIC at NWSFO Tampa...  Convo with him last night was pretty alarming!

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