ineedsnow Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 2 hours ago, tamarack said: Four more days for things to change, but right now the cone is centered on Bradenton. Hope that the eastern Gulf is still a bit cooled from Helene's passage. The warm water is pretty deep and didn't make much of a impact.. a few of the slower GEFS members are trying to take the remnants close to here now.. with only one strong member 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 8 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s a known meteorological fact storms are guided near shore by coasts . They like to seek out the water as long as possible . The shape of TB generally dictates that storms will not make direct LF especially moving north or northeast Kev... You make my head hurt....lol. I must of missed the lecture on its a known meteorological "fact" that storms are guided near shore by coasts? If only it was that simple; we could save a crap load of money currently being spent on sophisticated models. Also trying to use personification "they seek" when dealing with final track is a bit much. In certain cases, there are relatively small shifts or wobbles as the low level circulation interacts with the coastline, but they are very minor and the basic track is always governed by the large scale flow above and around the circulation. There are many coastal areas that seem to have a protective hurricane shield, but it's the climatological history of the large scale upper level flow that protects them, not the shape of the coastline. 4 1 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 One of the experiences on "my bucket list" is to be standing in the eye of a Major Hurricane. ***NOT IN MY YARD*** Oh, baby here we go. Chances are increasing for just that with each run. I'm so far inland fear of surge or flooding should bypass (LAT 28.97, LON 81.63) None from the former and negligible on the latter. Milton for obvious reasons I will prep for. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 Intensifying Tropical Storm Milton Poses Grave Threat to Tampa-St Petersburg Mid-Week Likely to Reach Hurricane Status by Monday The Current Situation: While the state of Florida and much of the southeastern US continues reeling from the impact of Hurricane Helene during the latter portion of September, the merciless tropics are preparing for another debilitating blow. As of 5pm EDT, Tropical Storm Milton was located near latitude 22.7 N and longitude and 95.5 W. It was drifting NNE at 3 mph with maximum sustained winds at 40mph and minimum central pressure of 1006mb. Track Forecast for Milton: Milton will continue drifting tonight before beginning a more concerted motion to the ENE during the day on Sunday, as the ridge over the northwest Caribbean Sea begins to move away to the east and the steering flow intensifies from the WSW around its northwestern periphery. This general motion will continue with an acceleration on Tuesday, at which point the system will begin to drive through a weakness in the subtropical ridge in association with the amplifying trough responsible for the fall preview over the northeast during the the coming week. This scenario would place the central west coast of the FL peninsula at greatest risk of landfall mid week, with the Tamp Bay Area particularly vulnerable. However, while this general scenario is of relatively high confidence, there remain finer scale details that could have large consequences for specific areas that could change at this lead time. Intensity Forecast for Milton Evokes Deja-Vu from Hurricane Helene Atmospheric conditions are very favorable for intensification, however, it is likely to be a relatively slow, albeit steady process for approximately the next 36-48 hours. This is due to the fact that the Milton is still in its incipient stages of development and the nascent central dense overcast (CDO) is not yet fully developed. Beyond the this window, the system will begin to encounter a window of essentially pristine atmospheric conditions overnight Monday into the daylight hours on Tuesday as it traverses the loop current, at which point maximum intensity (approximately 130mph sustained winds) will be achieved and internal processes will begin to modulate intensity until approximately the early morning hours of Wednesday. Milton's Odds of Becoming a Major Hurricane by Tuesday are 4.4x Climo Note that Milton will be traversing the area of exceptionally deep and warm waters of the loop current while encountering its most favorable upper level dynamics, which includes a very moist environment and poleward augmented outflow by strong wind shear to the north. This is eerily similar to the confluence of environmental factors at this precise location that triggered the more accelerated rate of intensification of Hurricane Helene late last month. However, there are two key differences that are likely to result in a weaker landfall intensity of Milton relative to Helene. First of all, whereas Helene's direction of movement continued essentially parallel with the shear vector all the way to the coast, Milton will be moving ENE as it encounters southwesterly shear beginning during the predawn hours on Wednesday. This should induce a more steady and accelerated rate of weakening. Secondly, Milton's smaller size relative to Helene will render it more susceptible to negative atmospheric influences such as wind shear, thus drier air is also more likely to be entrained into the core as the system is disrupted by the aforementioned shear on final approach to the coast. That being said, this will remain a bonafide hurricane on approach to the coast and a track just to the north of Tampa Bay would devastate an area that is especially vulnerable to storm surge with a strong onshore flow from the west that will be augmented by the storm's movement. Be sure to check back for Final Call on Tuesday, as the intensity forecast is especially likely to change at this lead time. FIRST CALL: 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 2 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 2 hours ago, tiger_deF said: I couldn't even fathom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 Fantasy for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 8 hours ago, tiger_deF said: what an epic run, at first I didn't even notice that was the second hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 2 hours ago, bobbutts said: what an epic run, at first I didn't even notice that was the second hurricane Holy smokes…ya I thought that was the one that’s gonna hit this Wednesday lol. But it’s an entirely different one. Ya that’s big time fantasy land though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewbeer Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 Glad we dont live there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 48 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Holy smokes…ya I thought that was the one that’s gonna hit this Wednesday lol. But it’s an entirely different one. Ya that’s big time fantasy land though. I’m still far from sold, but the GFS has done well sniffing out CAG/western Caribbean stuff and it would continue the theme of the lid being off. There is a little EPS support from what I saw too this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 The surge into that bay would be awful if that were to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 1 hour ago, Brewbeer said: Glad we dont live there Alot at stake being a populated area to which many have never experienced. LF appears to be trending S with uncertainty catching many by surprise. Not liking the Hurr. models spitting out intensities to such a degree, hopefully shear and drier air gets rapped into which would be a double-edged sword- expanding the wind field. I'm living close enough to be very concerned. I have a huge Southern Oak overhanging the lanai in the back of the house not exposed to such strong winds in a longtime. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said: The surge into that bay would be awful if that were to verify. Reverse surge in TB if verified as is now, that's going to change on the 18z runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 Tampa will escape another one I’m betting. Something always saves them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 50 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Tampa will escape another one I’m betting. Something always saves them. That can be said for many areas on the East Coast and even the Gulf Coast. There are only so many major hurricanes every year so odds are not high for most major cities. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: That can be said for many areas on the East Coast and even the Gulf Coast. There are only so many major hurricanes every year so odds are not high for most major cities. True. But they’ve been under the gun a lot, and then escape a direct hit. Just an observation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 15 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: True. But they’ve been under the gun a lot, and then escape a direct hit. Just an observation. It’s the shape of the coastline 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 NHC a tad south. That helps TB 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 51 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: True. But they’ve been under the gun a lot, and then escape a direct hit. Just an observation. I think Hilton Head / Savannah might be the same. Many threats but rarely hit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: NHC a tad south. That helps TB Track will bounce around for another day at least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 If I book a flight for Tuesday morning will airports still be open in Florida at that time (MCO) ? There's a 730 take off from BDL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 17 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: If I book a flight for Tuesday morning will airports still be open in Florida at that time (MCO) ? There's a 730 take off from BDL I would imagine Orlando would still be taking flights. It's just a guess though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 18 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: If I book a flight for Tuesday morning will airports still be open in Florida at that time (MCO) ? There's a 730 take off from BDL Are you going to drive from Orlando to Tampa? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 23 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: If I book a flight for Tuesday morning will airports still be open in Florida at that time (MCO) ? There's a 730 take off from BDL If you believe the most recent GFS run you have plenty of time. "The 18Z GFS landfalls near Crystal River and isn’t til 11AM EDT on Thu!" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 1 hour ago, kdxken said: Are you going to drive from Orlando to Tampa? My brother lives in Lakeland and he will be picking me up 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 1 hour ago, kdxken said: If you believe the most recent GFS run you have plenty of time. "The 18Z GFS landfalls near Crystal River and isn’t til 11AM EDT on Thu!" A daytime storm would be great 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 A little further south would bring it into Ft Myers which was leveled just a couple of years ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 10 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: A little further south would bring it into Ft Myers which was leveled just a couple of years ago Yup…that was ground zero there for that beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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