ice1972 Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 forget about it.....not gonna happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 GFS with a 946 into Tampa Bay. Yikes. Hi Lars 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 Canes don’t like going into Tampa Bay due to the shape of the coastline. It’ll be south of there 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 46 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Canes don’t like going into Tampa Bay due to the shape of the coastline. It’ll be south of there Ya I was tempted to book a flight but going to wait until Monday morning if it still looks to be heading that way. My brother isn't far from Tampa but nothing big seems to hit that area..they have to run out of luck at some point though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Canes don’t like going into Tampa Bay due to the shape of the coastline. It’ll be south of there Tampa has had only two direct hits 1848 cat 4 and 1921 cat 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 My best friend lives in St. Pete, and some other good friends of mine live just south of there in Bradenton. I would hope they don't get a direct hit. Even Helene that just bypassed them caused them extreme damage along the coastline. It brought sand all the way in and buried cars and ruined properties right along the outer coastline. As exciting as it sounds to have something hit an area like that..... if you have a major storm come right in on them, it would be devastating for everyone, even many miles inland. Look what Helene did up into North Carolina, Georgia, Tennessee, and of course Florida. It's a catch 22 for me. It's exciting to watch a storm coming in to see what it's going to be like where it hits, but then you think about the people that are affected, and it makes me think twice about watching a storm come in with devastating results. It's tough. When I was about 19 years old, I remember driving into Rhode Island when Bob hit... With most exhilarating experience, I've had being stuck in a hotel as a storm was hitting. Fast forward to now, and I don't think I'd want to do that, knowing what could happen as far as the damage and lives being lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Canes don’t like going into Tampa Bay due to the shape of the coastline. It’ll be south of there Why didn't the shape of the coastline protect them in 1848 and 1921? The actual shape of the coast has little to no impact on landfall track, it always comes down to short term steering currents that for a variety of reasons have favored orientations & alignments not tied to coastal plain shape. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 8 minutes ago, FXWX said: Why didn't the shape of the coastline protect them in 1848 and 1921? The actual shape of the coast has little to no impact on landfall track, it always comes down to short term steering currents that for a variety of reasons have favored orientations & alignments not tied to coastal plain shape. I imagine he means the shape is favorable to “misses” relative to climatological tracks much like coastal GA is and the Outer Banks are, but who knows lol. Agree with your point though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 Also, this would’ve been primed to ride the coast…if we weren’t San Diego. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 14 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Also, this would’ve been primed to ride the coast…if we weren’t San Diego. I've been wanting to chase for awhile and seems like something always happens so I cant.. my brother lives in Lakeland so might be a perfect chance this time.. just hoping I can find a flight Monday and leave Tuesday morning.. I would book earlier but with my luck it wont be much or landfall somewhere else lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: I've been wanting to chase for awhile and seems like something always happens so I cant.. my brother lives in Lakeland so might be a perfect chance this time.. just hoping I can find a flight Monday and leave Tuesday morning.. I would book earlier but with my luck it wont be much or landfall somewhere else lol It’s likely to be something. Landfall zone is the issue. The problem is if you’re looking to chase you can’t hold yourself to one location. If you just want impacts sure but if you are trying to get into the core you honestly won’t know if that’s going to happen until a few hours before landfall even in the best of cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 37 minutes ago, FXWX said: Why didn't the shape of the coastline protect them in 1848 and 1921? The actual shape of the coast has little to no impact on landfall track, it always comes down to short term steering currents that for a variety of reasons have favored orientations & alignments not tied to coastal plain shape. It’s a known meteorological fact storms are guided near shore by coasts . They like to seek out the water as long as possible . The shape of TB generally dictates that storms will not make direct LF especially moving north or northeast 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: It’s likely to be something. Landfall zone is the issue. The problem is if you’re looking to chase you can’t hold yourself to one location. If you just want impacts sure but if you are trying to get into the core you honestly won’t know if that’s going to happen until a few hours before landfall even in the best of cases. ya I understand all of that lol Lakeland looks to be a good spot to start off right now.. But not booking and have to travel 400 miles 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: ya I understand all of that lol Lakeland looks to be a good spot to start off right now.. But not booking and have to travel 400 miles I didn’t want to assume haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I didn’t want to assume haha the surge would be nuts in Tampa if the 12z GFS verified 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 1 hour ago, ineedsnow said: the surge would be nuts in Tampa if the 12z GFS verified Model after model is pinpointing TB Clearwater are with RFQ. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 Not looking good for that area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 58 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Model after model is pinpointing TB Clearwater are with RFQ. Really thinking I'm going to go just waiting a couple days to make sure there's no drastic model changes.. I'll get to see my brother and dad either way though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 12z Euro destroys Tampa Bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 Tropical storm Milton coming at 5pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 “that these times will pass, and the challenges to solve will still be there” “This horror will grow milde, this darkness light.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s a known meteorological fact storms are guided near shore by coasts . They like to seek out the water as long as possible . The shape of TB generally dictates that storms will not make direct LF especially moving north or northeast Might not hold for a 'cane coming in on a course perpendicular to the coastline. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 44 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Tropical storm Milton coming at 5pm They've already upgraded it to a tropical storm. The storm is moving more on an east/ east Northeast direction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 1 hour ago, tamarack said: Might not hold for a 'cane coming in on a course perpendicular to the coastline. Ya extremely rare to do that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Ya extremely rare to do that Absolutely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 Is this expected to track up the coast in a diminished form like the examples above? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 @40/70 Benchmark we’ve seen a lot of close calls and false alarms over the years, and this one is still far from settled…but this looks as close to “the one” for Tampa as I’ve seen since Charley. Look at the TC report from Josephine in the 90s. Nine feet of surge north of Tampa and 4-6’ near the Bay. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 1 minute ago, Cyclone-68 said: Is this expected to track up the coast in a diminished form like the examples above? Nope. It’d be a ripe candidate but the TC force field is strong this fall in our neck of the woods. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 Oh hell, just seeing this. My grandmother's 4th floor condo on the beach of Siesta Key would be toast with a lot of these runs. And just a week after the worst surge she's ever seen in the 60 years she's been down there. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 30 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Ya extremely rare to do that Four more days for things to change, but right now the cone is centered on Bradenton. Hope that the eastern Gulf is still a bit cooled from Helene's passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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