WxWatcher007 Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 And we’re back. That was something. I’m ok. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 4 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: And we’re back. That was something. I’m ok. Deets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 5 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: And we’re back. That was something. I’m ok. Congrats, we happy you’re good. Your imgr link in the tropics thread did not work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Yeah sorry about that I barely had signal. Actually had to use the new iPhone satellite text feature which was very useful. Doing damage survey now. Not as bad as one would think, but there’s significant to extensive damage in spots. I didn’t do a similar survey for Laura but this is the first time I’ve seen some buildings/offices just blown out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Getting back on the grid. Thinking of the folks still in harms way up north. I will get some storm videos up later but here’s the damage survey around Perry. It's significant to extensive in spots, but could’ve been a lot worse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Nearly Flawless Forecast for Historic Hurricane Helene Due to Lessons Learned from Michael Intensity Forecast Slightly Underestimated Very Strong Track Forecast The track forecast for historic Hurricane Helene was absolutely immaculate from First Call issued on Tuesday and was unchanged with the issuance of Final Call on Thursday. The forecast rationale that all of the guidance, including the National Hurricane Center were underestimating how quickly a hurricane as powerful and vertically stacked as Helene would begin to feel the influence of the incoming trough and veer somewhat to the east. The intensity forecast, while accurate overall, was not flawless. Landfall Intensity Underestimated The evolution of the intensity forecast was exceptionally accurate, as First Call explicitly articulated that the system would not undergo any rapid intensification until after dawn on Thursday and instead only intensify gradually through Wednesday night, which its precisely what took place. The system was somewhat disrupted when it skirted the northeastern most tip of the Yucatan, as anticipated and then began to rapidly intensify after dawn on Thursday. Final Call "In fact, poleward ventilation of Helene may be enhanced as a result of the approaching trough's initial interaction with the system in addition to what is obviously likely to be a very moist airmass in the mid levels of the atmosphere". This unique type on interaction with the trough was correctly identified as the type that allows for significant intensification right to the coast. This is very analogous to the the type of scenario that was misdiagnosed by Eastern Mass Weather with respect to Hurricane Michael in October of 2018. Although the forecast was certainly superior to the one with respect to Michael, which called for significant weakening, Helene even intensified slightly more aggressively than anticipated Thursday into Thursday evening. This was on display via numerous very vidid lightening strikes within the eyewall throughout the night on final approach to the coast. It ultimately made landfall with 140 mph maximum sustained winds instead of the forecast for 125 mph at 11:10pm EDT instead of the forecast 12:00am EDT. FINAL GRADE: A 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shawnmov Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Got some pics sent from my mom's condo in Sarasota - Lido Key area. This is about 200 miles south of landfall. The pick of the fence is the gate to the beach. That fence is usually about 10 feet above the ground. The other is of a guy standing where the pool is (or in this case, was). Unbelievable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 So did the pool get filled in with sand? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shawnmov Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: So did the pool get filled in with sand? Yep. Totally covered and filled in. Looks like about 8-10' surge. They've had water get close to the pool, but never this much sand. I can't even comprehend how you fix that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shawnmov Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Just now, shawnmov said: Yep. Totally covered and filled in. Looks like about 8-10' surge. They've had water get close to the pool, but never this much sand. I can't even comprehend how you fix that. If you see those palm canopies in the background, those are the tables that are by the pool, so the sand is filled in the area and about 4' above the base of the pool. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 39 minutes ago, shawnmov said: Yep. Totally covered and filled in. Looks like about 8-10' surge. They've had water get close to the pool, but never this much sand. I can't even comprehend how you fix that. Gotta dig it out, and tear out the old pool as if starting from scratch…I’d imagine. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 39 minutes ago, shawnmov said: If you see those palm canopies in the background, those are the tables that are by the pool, so the sand is filled in the area and about 4' above the base of the pool. That’s really something…wow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Western NC got absolutely hammered with flooding 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 1 hour ago, shawnmov said: If you see those palm canopies in the background, those are the tables that are by the pool, so the sand is filled in the area and about 4' above the base of the pool. If you look at the picture of the fence…that’s only about a foot high now(used to be 10ft you said), there looks to be an outdoor shower just outside the fence, and it’s only about a foot above the sand. Place is absolutely buried in sand….lol. Place could be an archaeological dig for god sakes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Really good call, Ray. Looks like the 140 ceiling ended up getting reached. Obviously not as bad on the ground but my God some of the tree damage I saw in the path was wild. @kdxken @tamarack what kind of wind does it take to snap moderate to large pine trees at the base? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 1 hour ago, eyewall said: Western NC got absolutely hammered with flooding You aren't kidding. Goodness gracious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Western CT beat those totals back in mid August….but nonetheless that’s a crushing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 What was max intensity? Haven't had time to look NM 938/140 at landfall, sheesh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 That was an easy storm to track and forecast. The consistency of the GFS was dead-on from D10 to LF absolutely FANTASTIC. I only lost power from 8:00pm. to 3:30am. Started getting a bit concerned about intensity being spit out by the hurricane models being so right of the global. Could have wobbled at the 11th hour with my results being far worse. My stations data records:Lowest Pressure: 29.41InHg. - 21:03 Highest Wind Gust: SSW 63mph. - 01:26 A little Rain only - 0.36In. You can clearly see the discoloration in the Gulf from upwelling. NEXT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: Really good call, Ray. Looks like the 140 ceiling ended up getting reached. Obviously not as bad on the ground but my God some of the tree damage I saw in the path was wild. @kdxken @tamarack what kind of wind does it take to snap moderate to large pine trees at the base? Like many things, it depends. The hard pines ("Southern yellow pine", several species) are stronger than the soft pines (Eastern white). The damage to our white pines last Dec occurred where they were 50-60 feet taller than the other trees, mainly hardwoods 50-60 feet tall, and about 90% of those 100'+ trees were undamaged. A small (~1/3 acre) plantation of red pine - one of the hard pines - was destroyed by the 4 hours of gusts ~50+, 2/3 broken or tipped over. That stand faced upwind across a long field, with nothing to break the wind. Red pines elsewhere suffered much less damage. White pines 50-foot-tall or greater, out in the open, are likely to fall before sustained 50+ and probably near 100% breakage/uprooting in 60+. The Southern pines have a taproot and are less likely to uproot. Maybe add 10 mph to their resistance, but that's a guess as I've never lived south of Baltimore nor seen wind effects south of NJ. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Maybe a double hitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: Western CT beat those totals back in mid August….but nonetheless that’s a crushing. Western CT put up 29.58"?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shawnmov Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 4 hours ago, WinterWolf said: If you look at the picture of the fence…that’s only about a foot high now(used to be 10ft you said), there looks to be an outdoor shower just outside the fence, and it’s only about a foot above the sand. Place is absolutely buried in sand….lol. Place could be an archaeological dig for god sakes. It is really something. It just astounds me that this was almost 200 miles south of landfall. Just an enormous damage path for this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 6 hours ago, shawnmov said: Got some pics sent from my mom's condo in Sarasota - Lido Key area. This is about 200 miles south of landfall. The pick of the fence is the gate to the beach. That fence is usually about 10 feet above the ground. The other is of a guy standing where the pool is (or in this case, was). Unbelievable. My grandma is in Siesta Key on the beach. Wild flooding considering how far from landfall they were. My great uncle’s villa nearby had feet of water in it. First time it’s flooded since they bought it in the early Fifties. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 28 Share Posted September 28 7 hours ago, shawnmov said: Yep. Totally covered and filled in. Looks like about 8-10' surge. They've had water get close to the pool, but never this much sand. I can't even comprehend how you fix that. meh they’ll back truck in with an industrial scale slurry pump and have it out of there in an afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 28 Share Posted September 28 I have a lot of stuff to sort through, but even though there are videos with higher gusts, there’s one video that says it all. Yahoos aside, what an experience doing this one shoulder to shoulder with one of the greats. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted September 28 Share Posted September 28 8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I have a lot of stuff to sort through, but even though there are videos with higher gusts, there’s one video that says it all. Yahoos aside, what an experience doing this one shoulder to shoulder with one of the greats. I may have missed it, where did you end up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 28 Share Posted September 28 29 minutes ago, mreaves said: I may have missed it, where did you end up? Pretty much dead center in Perry, FL. I was telling @ORH_wxman earlier that we had some clearing and a poor man’s stadium as the eye passed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted September 28 Share Posted September 28 Has anyone noticed how healthy Isaac looks ( not that it's going to affect us )? I really think the National Hurricane center is too conservative with the strength of this storm. I'm wondering if they will revise their wind speed strength in the future as 105 seems wrong from the looks of the storm on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 28 Share Posted September 28 14 hours ago, tunafish said: Western CT put up 29.58"?? Sorry about that…was looking at the color shading on the map only. And I didn’t see the 29” amount on the right. So in that case, no they did not. My mistake. But to me the crazy part is, western CT back in that friek event in August(where they were only forecast to get a half inch lol), would have made the top 3 on that Helene list. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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