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2024 - tracking the tropics


mcglups
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This maybe the most boring couple of weather years that I can recall since being a child.....if I hadn't gotten lucky with Jan 7 early on this year, I would be just losing my shit. This pattern is just brutal and relentless as fuc$....just murdering winter and now cane season. Hell, severe season dissapointed relative to even the paltry baseline expectation.

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46 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This maybe the most boring couple of weather years that I can recall since being a child.....if I hadn't gotten lucky with Jan 7 early on this year, I would be just losing my shit. This pattern is just brutal and relentless as fuc$....just murdering winter and now cane season. Hell, severe season dissapointed relative to even the paltry baseline expectation.

Yeah. I’m losing it.

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3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This maybe the most boring couple of weather years that I can recall since being a child.....if I hadn't gotten lucky with Jan 7 early on this year, I would be just losing my shit. This pattern is just brutal and relentless as fuc$....just murdering winter and now cane season. Hell, severe season dissapointed relative to even the paltry baseline expectation.

2011 isn't walking through that door!

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there's been events, extreme ones at that, during this last 2 years though

flooding may not be everyone's cup of tea, granted.  but the vt [seemingly new climate regime] rain bombs, ...the one in leominster and then more recently in ct, were amazing to watch from afar, and to see unfold in real time data/observation tech, nonetheless.

don't mean to condescend ( seriously ...) but some of it might be related to 'drama addiction' ?   maybe dystopian-drama is more apropos.   we've all admitted to a kind of 'rush' felt at the instant of the model's 96 hour forecast ...suggesting the 180 hour might look dramatic - and then watching the movie of the model play out that vibe is some sort of weird satisfaction.   endorphin thing, even and gives a fix for excitement.

i'm probably going too far with this here ( what's new lol ) but it kind of all goes back to the psychotropic addiction stuff we've brought to light in the past.  it was investigated by 60 minutes.  it was showcased by 'the social dilemma' ( ex facebook engineers tell-all).    folks sort of become ... something like addicted to the specter and emotion of witnessing the world's dirty laundry. 

these models ( 'cinema' as i like to call them..) sort of tap into that same phenom.  and the addiction isn't really a basis from which expectations will ever match reality.  

that all said, ... yeah we haven't had a 1938 or gloria thing is 30+ years.  we haven't had a winter that, forget psychotropic doom scrolling, ...we can't even merely write (dying art) home about either.  but there have been things that are out of the ordinary enough.

frankly, i dance around the idea that winters may never be what we were raised to see them as. 

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2 hours ago, dryslot said:

Ha ha, Yeah, Picked up another sled, I'm expecting a good winter this year.

Well, at least we know who to blame if winter sucks!

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Congratulations!  Gonna be a lot better than last year up there…that’s for sure. Very much Looking forward to it.  

I may be making a couple of trips up there this coming winter.  Very good friends of mine moved up to Presque Isle this summer.  Direct trail access from their house.  It always helps to have a place to stay.

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4 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Well, at least we know who to blame if winter sucks!

I may be making a couple of trips up there this coming winter.  Very good friends of mine moved up to Presque Isle this summer.  Direct trail access from their house.  It always helps to have a place to stay.

Just noticed were in the tropics thread....lol, Nah, I bought one last year too and rode 1,300 mi, I can always find snow up here, Had to upgrade from a 2003 and a 2007 to a 2020 and a 2023, I'll be good for a while now, Actually will have to make a trip to VT next month to pick up my 2023 at the dealer, I think i'm going to get up to the county this winter too.

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given to the lack of activity to date causing non-dispersion, the ohc over the western caribbean/gulf routes are about as loaded  as is physically possible -

it's probably not a huge leap to hunch whatever develops down there might become an impressive concern to put it mildly.  it's not just the ohc tho.   ohc can be extreme - doesn't matter without the other circulation machinery.   but that's changing... the erstwhile suppression i myself have suggested, appears to be at long last progressing away from the basin.   take the lid off the pressure cooker?

the 12z gfs is likely over-amplified - what's new - beyond d7 up north ...but, the advent or emergence of a tc down there can happen independent of the gfs' handling of the westerlies/pattern at mid latitudes. 

it's from recent guidance i've seen ...about d4.5 is when the region seems to develop from something actually ejected out of s. america which is interesting.

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