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2024 - tracking the tropics


mcglups
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23 hours ago, Cyclone-68 said:

I wish the Atlantic Ocean had “super” designations for Atlantic hurricanes  as well. Why do Typhoons get special treatment?(just trying to get some tropic related discussion going)

I could be off on this but technically the Atlantic does get designations as category 3 or higher are called major hurricanes. 

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i do see a pathway to vulnerability ioa the gulf/florida and the se out there in the d7-12 range.

it has to do with the wholesale change in pattern in the main belt of the westerlies from easern asia all the way around...

in short the powerful positive wpo, which has really predominated and forced a kind of pattern lock down over the last 10 days - i time which has been more than decent to use here in new england, much to the chagrin of the responsibly minded disaster zealot posters in here ... - is finally indicated in all major ensemble clusters to collapse.  that translates a repositioning of the l/w progression through the np ... ultimately across n/a  after some lag.  

it does a bunch of stuff but the main take away is the entire flow paradigm modulates anew.  a transient positive pnap through the west teleconnects to nw flow over st louis mo, which in turn tips the deep layer flow s along the ec.   

whether these models like the recent ggem and the gfs are right about that western car. tc that's a sides the changes above.  but.. if a tc is there, the former provides a means for it getting drawn into the interest region(s).    predicated on the idea of these ens based mode changes working out, that gives a window

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19 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Give us a little description. 

i'll bite...

a flip in the pna leads to a trough digging s.  this feature closes off, doing so with perfectly exquisite timing. what could go wrong at this time range huh

nevertheless, these flow changes in general, draw a tc out of the caribbean, across cuba, over florida ... while interestingly, not weakening it appreciably enough despite encountering these land regions.   then it even intensifies further as it comes n astride the western side of the g-string waters down there.  closed low ultimately sucking it into it like a star wondering too close to a blackhole.

image.png.f3700b9e2b3c0f080efb89c60b30663c.png

 

one should gather an impression of how this above ends up after this frame....  

if you guessed this,

image.png.a5946d8250418108d066e50e45044ed7.png

 

... you guessed wisely.  

however, none of which is either a statement of forecast from me, nor is very likely at this range to be correct but that's understood.

the main usefulness of this model's 00z run ( for now ) is that it is the first entertainment/eye-candy in probably 40 days worth ennui so crushing as to challenge the very endurance of man

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not totally unrealistic....I mentioned late last week that I could see something getting pulled N over Cuba and posing a threat. But talk to me this weekend. The main inhibiting factor is lead time.

Wave break forces this into the Gulf then dies inland. We end up cool and dry

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2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Yup, to Rays point, it’s still a ways out, so that’s the biggest thing that plays against it. But stranger things have happened too. 

Very much too far out to take it serious, but if you look at that synoptic evolution, that's exactly what you want to see so can't totally discard this one yet. 

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