2024 - tracking the tropics

[HoarfrostHubb]

19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Strong cat 2. Should be wild 

Cat 2 is 96-110 mph

Ain't happenin James

[Damage In Tolland]

41 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Cat 2 is 96-110 mph

Ain't happenin James

NHC themselves have it as a cat 2

[dryslot]

Cat 1 and done shortly.

[Typhoon Tip]

i dunno if it takes a whole helluva lot of category to cause major problems for the dumbest location of civility since pompeii tho

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

NHC themselves have it as a cat 2

Not a strong one

[Damage In Tolland]

AWT .. a beast cat 2

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

AWT .. a beast cat 2

A middlin Cat 2 at landfall. Back to a cat 1.  
 

Of course if it hits where you live a few mph won’t make a difference 

[WxWatcher007]

I didn’t end up in the center, but this hurricane was legit in the region. Flash flood emergencies through metropolitan New Orleans (top ten daily rainfall) along with multiple hurricane force gusts in SE LA.

Not like the monsters Ida and Laura, but a solid cane in its own right with RI up through landfall. The last FL wind I saw was 106kt and I saw a report of a 97mph gust west of NO. That’s impressive considering where this thing was structurally last night. 

[CoastalWx]

Tropics look dead again.

[metagraphica]

33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Tropics look dead again.

You mean you're not excited about these two lemons???

[40/70 Benchmark]

 

Hurricane Francine Strikes Louisiana Stronger Than Anticipated

Track of Francine Very Well Forecast

The Eastern Mass Weather First & Final Call forecast for the landfall of Hurricane Francine was a moderate success with mixed results, as intensity forecast left something to be desired. The system intensified right up until landfall as a category two hurricane with max sustained winds of 100mph, after appearing to have leveled off during most of the day on Wednesday. This was in contrast to the forecast, which called for weakening during the day on Wednesday and landfall as a category one hurricane with max sustained winds of 75mph.

 

Post Forecast Analysis

In terms of what went "wrong" with the forecast, from a track standpoint, absolutely nothing. The hurricane made landfall at essentially the precise point that it was forecast to, in the marshlands near the east side of Atchafalaya Bay to the southwest of Morgan City, LA. However, the forecast also called for for appreciable weakening during the day on Wednesday due to the continued intrusion of dry air and increasing wind shear in association with the mid level trough approaching from the west. The interaction of tropical entities with mid latitude systems is exceedingly complex and while their influence is often detrimental to the overall welfare of the tropical system, this is not always the case. In this instance, it is likely that divergence aaoft augmented the evacuation of air away from the hurricane at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, which acted to negate some of the aforementioned negate influence from drier air and wind shear.

 

 

In fact, the impact of these inhibitors of development may have also been overstated given that Francine was only a minor to moderate strength hurricane, which needs less than an ideal environment to sustain itself, in contrast to a more intense system.

 

Final Grade: C+

 

 

[WxWatcher007]

4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Tropics look dead again.

Peak season forecast going down in flames. MDR might as well be another planet. 

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

 

Hurricane Francine Strikes Louisiana Stronger Than Anticipated

Track of Francine Very Well Forecast

The Eastern Mass Weather First & Final Call forecast for the landfall of Hurricane Francine was a moderate success with mixed results, as intensity forecast left something to be desired. The system intensified right up until landfall as a category two hurricane with max sustained winds of 100mph, after appearing to have leveled off during most of the day on Wednesday. This was in contrast to the forecast, which called for weakening during the day on Wednesday and landfall as a category one hurricane with max sustained winds of 75mph.

 

Post Forecast Analysis

In terms of what went "wrong" with the forecast, from a track standpoint, absolutely nothing. The hurricane made landfall at essentially the precise point that it was forecast to, in the marshlands near the east side of Atchafalaya Bay to the southwest of Morgan City, LA. However, the forecast also called for for appreciable weakening during the day on Wednesday due to the continued intrusion of dry air and increasing wind shear in association with the mid level trough approaching from the west. The interaction of tropical entities with mid latitude systems is exceedingly complex and while their influence is often detrimental to the overall welfare of the tropical system, this is not always the case. In this instance, it is likely that divergence aaoft augmented the evacuation of air away from the hurricane at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, which acted to negate some of the aforementioned negate influence from drier air and wind shear.

 

 

In fact, the impact of these inhibitors of development may have also been overstated given that Francine was only a minor to moderate strength hurricane, which needs less than an ideal environment to sustain itself, in contrast to a more intense system.

 

Final Grade: C+

 

 

Nice job on the track. I think once we saw lightning going off upshear that should’ve told us what was coming. Having a FL wind of 106kt at landfall is pretty wild.

That said…if this were 2020 or ‘05 or any true high end season that thing would’ve taken off as soon as it developed that first inner core off the Mexico coast and not looked back. Dry air be damned. I think it’s true that this is a quality over quantity season, but far from hyperactive or high end as a season.

[Torch Tiger]

Great summer but what a crap tropical season.  Brutal

[WinterWolf]

LR is a crapshoot.  This one(tropical) Mother nature fooled the pros. 

[Damage In Tolland]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

 

Hurricane Francine Strikes Louisiana Stronger Than Anticipated

Track of Francine Very Well Forecast

The Eastern Mass Weather First & Final Call forecast for the landfall of Hurricane Francine was a moderate success with mixed results, as intensity forecast left something to be desired. The system intensified right up until landfall as a category two hurricane with max sustained winds of 100mph, after appearing to have leveled off during most of the day on Wednesday. This was in contrast to the forecast, which called for weakening during the day on Wednesday and landfall as a category one hurricane with max sustained winds of 75mph.

 

Post Forecast Analysis

In terms of what went "wrong" with the forecast, from a track standpoint, absolutely nothing. The hurricane made landfall at essentially the precise point that it was forecast to, in the marshlands near the east side of Atchafalaya Bay to the southwest of Morgan City, LA. However, the forecast also called for for appreciable weakening during the day on Wednesday due to the continued intrusion of dry air and increasing wind shear in association with the mid level trough approaching from the west. The interaction of tropical entities with mid latitude systems is exceedingly complex and while their influence is often detrimental to the overall welfare of the tropical system, this is not always the case. In this instance, it is likely that divergence aaoft augmented the evacuation of air away from the hurricane at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, which acted to negate some of the aforementioned negate influence from drier air and wind shear.

 

 

In fact, the impact of these inhibitors of development may have also been overstated given that Francine was only a minor to moderate strength hurricane, which needs less than an ideal environment to sustain itself, in contrast to a more intense system.

 

Final Grade: C+

 

 

Thanks 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Thanks 

Nice guess on the intensity...I was surprised by that last minute spike.

[Torch Tiger]

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

 

Hurricane Francine Strikes Louisiana Stronger Than Anticipated

Track of Francine Very Well Forecast

The Eastern Mass Weather First & Final Call forecast for the landfall of Hurricane Francine was a moderate success with mixed results, as intensity forecast left something to be desired. The system intensified right up until landfall as a category two hurricane with max sustained winds of 100mph, after appearing to have leveled off during most of the day on Wednesday. This was in contrast to the forecast, which called for weakening during the day on Wednesday and landfall as a category one hurricane with max sustained winds of 75mph.

 

Post Forecast Analysis

In terms of what went "wrong" with the forecast, from a track standpoint, absolutely nothing. The hurricane made landfall at essentially the precise point that it was forecast to, in the marshlands near the east side of Atchafalaya Bay to the southwest of Morgan City, LA. However, the forecast also called for for appreciable weakening during the day on Wednesday due to the continued intrusion of dry air and increasing wind shear in association with the mid level trough approaching from the west. The interaction of tropical entities with mid latitude systems is exceedingly complex and while their influence is often detrimental to the overall welfare of the tropical system, this is not always the case. In this instance, it is likely that divergence aaoft augmented the evacuation of air away from the hurricane at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, which acted to negate some of the aforementioned negate influence from drier air and wind shear.

 

 

In fact, the impact of these inhibitors of development may have also been overstated given that Francine was only a minor to moderate strength hurricane, which needs less than an ideal environment to sustain itself, in contrast to a more intense system.

 

Final Grade: C+

 

 

I give you a B, as intensity forecasting is a B

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

I give you a B, as intensity forecasting is a B

Yea, I try to be conservative on this self-grading practice because I know how cheesy that is.

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

LR is a crapshoot.  This one(tropical) Mother nature fooled the pros. 

That is part of what makes it fun to me.....how invested I am in winter is a byproduct of my need to get the snowstorm dopamine drip going coulpled with with the challange that LF presents. Its the snow addiciuton that fuels that drive needed to do the forecasting.

[CoastalWx]

Tropics are dead. A face plant of epic proportions. 

[WxWatcher007]

24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Tropics are dead. A face plant of epic proportions. 

I’d say this would be the greatest seasonal bust of my lifetime but I don’t know meteorological history like @ORH_wxman. 

But if we are tracking whatever—while I think the MDR can be flushed closer to home is looking more interesting IMO. Seems like the favorable homebrew window that I talked about pre 99L is going to remain open for the foreseeable future. Hybrid or tropical if we can get something to pop off the SE coast or in the western Caribbean rather than where 99L did. 

[WxWatcher007]

What’s folks will miss about this is that it was a flip from early season. The early season was defined by unusually strong waves but then things flipped as SAL peaked and you had this ITCZ feedback loop of north based waves constantly pumping SAL and stability into the tropical Atlantic. I know there’s a HC discussion to be had here too as Tip has mentioned before but that truthfully goes over my head.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

What’s folks will miss about this is that it was a flip from early season. The early season was defined by unusually strong waves but then things flipped as SAL peaked and you had this ITCZ feedback loop of north based waves constantly pumping SAL and stability into the tropical Atlantic. I know there’s a HC discussion to be had here too as Tip has mentioned before but that truthfully goes over my head.

yup not for not but i stated 2 months ago across a couple of posts that there was a dearth in both frequency and potency of tws leaving africa.

point being - to me - is, why wasn't the f(tw) and p(tw) taken into consideration during seasonal forecasting ? - or perhaps more apropos, when did that change?

i can remember back in the 1990s ...whence colorado state u had formulated means to forecast canes with better than 50% success, and one of the key variables was the tw stuff.  

it seems the absence ( or weak profile ...) of that factor should/could have modulated forecasts much earlier.   

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’d say this would be the greatest seasonal bust of my lifetime but I don’t know meteorological history like @ORH_wxman. 

But if we are tracking whatever—while I think the MDR can be flushed closer to home is looking more interesting IMO. Seems like the favorable homebrew window that I talked about pre 99L is going to remain open for the foreseeable future. Hybrid or tropical if we can get something to pop off the SE coast or in the western Caribbean rather than where 99L did. 

I think the best bet for a big NE hit is one developing around the Bahamas, anyway....CV systems are such a crapshoot.

[Typhoon Tip]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the best bet for a big NE hit is one developing around the Bahamas, anyway....CV systems are such a crapshoot.

A significant enough number of them have been a straight shot like that in the history books.  
 

It’s just the specter of 1938… And Gloria, those kind of long track buildup of anticipation

[WxWatcher007]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the best bet for a big NE hit is one developing around the Bahamas, anyway....CV systems are such a crapshoot.

It’s why I like the homebrew region so much. CVs can be pretty and all but if you want impacts, give me something much further west. 

Maybe nothing comes of it but one of the reasons why I’m intrigued by the general pattern we’ve had in the east and off the east coast recently is because if something pops it doesn’t look like a cut and dry OTS pattern. But something has to form…

[CoastalWx]

9 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s why I like the homebrew region so much. CVs can be pretty and all but if you want impacts, give me something much further west. 

Maybe nothing comes of it but one of the reasons why I’m intrigued by the general pattern we’ve had in the east and off the east coast recently is because if something pops it doesn’t look like a cut and dry OTS pattern. But something has to form…

Flaccid 

[WxWatcher007]

49 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Flaccid 

It always is if folks are looking for 1938.

But if you’re just looking for activity near the US, the pattern doesn’t look terrible. There may be a CAG signal starting to show for late month in the western Caribbean as well. This is a homebrew season I guess. 

[Torch Tiger]

the type of season that makes folks rage-quit the hobby

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It always is if folks are looking for 1938.

But if you’re just looking for activity near the US, the pattern doesn’t look terrible. There may be a CAG signal starting to show for late month in the western Caribbean as well. This is a homebrew season I guess. 

Doesn’t look like anything exciting. Maybe some areas flood. Wheeeeee.