CoastalWx Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 Just now, weatherwiz said: When I said that you said yawn Still yawn lol. Just meant it might be something 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 Just now, CoastalWx said: Still yawn lol. Just meant it might be something I know...just messin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 Unless something gets up near here…it’s pretty yawn worthy, so I have to agree with Scott. We need some action in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 On 9/6/2024 at 10:22 AM, CoastalWx said: Yawn.... You’re tired alot. Get more sleep. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 it's times like these that i wonder if the model's get exposed and they really do goose them toward climate. because the hemispheric scaled limitations that have ( and apparently continue to do so ...) been smothering activity don't appear to be alleviating in the latter mids ... yet they keep tryin and tryin to spin up mdr cumulus. the western gulf has legs if the fire hose shear were to slacken off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 Nice fall color showing up down in the tropics 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 happy hour GFS indeed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: happy hour GFS indeed We 18z GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 8 Share Posted September 8 18z always surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 8 Share Posted September 8 1938! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 8 Share Posted September 8 43 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 1938! We can hope..right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 8 Share Posted September 8 garbage solution 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted September 8 Share Posted September 8 54 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: garbage solution That's putting it mildly... not only garbage solution, but the suggestion the modeled track & outcome mimics 1938 is less than laughable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 8 Share Posted September 8 Posted in the main forum but pasting here too Just quickly, my areas of interest: 1. BoC low/Invest 91L—80% Looks most likely to break our NS drought. Like I said before, it’s hard to bet against the BoC topography, though I’m not sure we’d have this area as likely to pop without old 90L and the boundary assisting what was an anemic wave. Western Gulf should watch closely. 2. Invest 92L—50% I won’t lie. I’m still nervous that this next iteration of the MT breakdown will fail to immediately produce, but like Windspeed said the tropical Atlantic portion of the MDR is looking substantially better than it did even a week ago. The apparent organization tonight gives me a little more confidence something is developing here. 3. MT Part II—40% This is the eastern end of the trough that will take more time to organize, if at all. A future AEW coming off Africa may help give the area the kick it needs to develop. Models are waffling on which part of the MT develops first, but it looks like 92L is in the lead. This is the easternmost NHC orange. 4. SE Coast—20% There’s still a signal late next week for a low to develop along a stalled boundary, and this may factor in the eventual track of 92L. What has my interest here is 1) the further south potential for development in a more tropical genesis favored zone, and 2) the possibility of a ridge developing over the top, potentially cutting off a quick exit. Two things 99L didn’t have. Long way away so not worth much attention. I’m not going to declare anything until it happens, but I do wonder if the lid is starting to come off…from west to east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 36 hrs…not one post. Tells us all we need to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 17 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: 36 hrs…not one post. Tells us all we need to know. Huge High over us-we won't see a drop of rain from this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 28 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Huge High over us-we won't see a drop of rain from this... Also, no talk about anything else either. Height of the season, and the forecasted historic activity, gonna go down like the Hindenburg. Definitely a Humbling state of affairs for all the forecasters. Lots to learn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Also, no talk about anything else either. Height of the season, and the forecasted historic activity, gonna go down like the Hindenburg. Definitely a Humbling state of affairs for all the forecasters. Lots to learn. Yeah just about everyone went hyperactive. Complete opposite. Home brew is really the main threat right now. MDR still looks dead. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 53 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Yeah just about everyone went hyperactive. Complete opposite. Home brew is really the main threat right now. MDR still looks dead. It’s so interesting/ironic when the weather does exactly the opposite of what was forecast. This is a perfect example of that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: It’s so interesting/ironic when the weather does exactly the opposite of what was forecast. This is a perfect example of that. Very true. There’s always a lot to learn. Turning closer to home, the 12z GFS isn’t as exotic as that happy hour run, but I think it’s more “realistic” in how we’d get something up here. A spin up off the SE coast as the ridge builds in over the top and has no escape route as the ridge slides east. Obviously fantasy range, but I’ve highlighted the SE window for a while now. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 I think Francine is going to be a relative bust, which is a microcosm of the season.....there is a reason why I have jumped to blog about it. I will probably put a one-and-done post out today, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 59 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think Francine is going to be a relative bust, which is a microcosm of the season.....there is a reason why I have jumped to blog about it. I will probably put a one-and-done post out today, though. was ruminating along these lines, myself, this morning while looking at this thing on satellite. a tc set up over no excuse ohc and slackening shear and no ri ? bit of supposition here, but it seems intuitive that rapid intensification behavior would be harder to come by when/if a tc is born out of some sort of tainted placenta. so we get stunted growth to torture the metaphor a little more - i'm pretty sure i know why this season's pulled the drain on tropical forecasting egos. though no attempt to take credit. for one, i don't give a fuck but for the other reason, i didn't see the standing wave/failed kelvin and mjo propagation phenomenon that's stalled the basin in a shit show for 45 days, either. hindsight 20/20 and all that. why those wave phenomenon [apparently] are slow and not allowing the basin to cycle back into a favorable hemispheric scaled uvm layout - i still suspect- is related to hc expansion causing a negative frequency modulation. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 this might help elucidate the above facets ... https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ir_anim_monthly.shtml loop that. you can see this hemispheric scale neggy uvm potential has stalled over the americas now on 45 days and gaining. this is directly related to suppression throughout the basin ( this may also be evidenced by mid and u/a thermal conditioning though i haven't checked ) normally, these regions of 'green' and 'brown' are propagating around the globe, as each passes through, tendencies for increased(decreased) tc genesis are observed. green is where tc enthusiasts wish to be. not shit stain brown. and, not shit stain brown not propagating - it doesn't mean we can't get events to unfold ... but 'explosions' of activity are a lot less likely. playing into a loaded deck 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think Francine is going to be a relative bust, which is a microcosm of the season.....there is a reason why I have jumped to blog about it. I will probably put a one-and-done post out today, though. Dry air no longer getting pulled into the center.. ready for take off? 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 Tropics Awaken as Tropical Storm Francine to Approach Louisiana as Hurricane Landfall as Minimal Hurricane likely Wednesday Night The Situation: Despite the very long lull in the 2024 hurricane season, activity has resumed just in time for the climatological peak of the season today. As of 11AM EDT, the center of tropical storm Francine is located near latitude 24.9N and longitude 95.6W, or about 425mi southwest of Morgan City, LA. The system continues to gradual intensify with a current minimum central pressure of 988MB and maximum sustained winds near 65MPH. It is important to note that Francine has now began the awaited turn towards the NNE at 8MPH and this general motion is anticipated to continue through landfall on the Louisiana coast Wednesday night due to a couple of different large scale synoptic factors. Track Forecast: The slow turn of Francine to the NNE this morning is primarily attributable to its passing on the northwestern flank of a subtropical ridge centered over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. However, the system is forecast to accelerate in this same general direction when it falls under the influence of an approaching trough tomorrow, which will cause its movement to the north-northeast to accelerate. Guidance is on fairly strong agreement on this scenario. The trough currently over the desert southwest will not only impact the future track of Francine, but it will also have important ramifications on the ultimate landfall intensity in southern Louisiana. Intensity Forecast: There are currently mixed signals upon analysis of Francine's current internal structure. The system is clearly making steady, albeit deliberate strides towards hurricane intensity, as evidenced by the developing eastern eye wall seen in the microwave imagery below. On the other hand, the central dense overcast (CDO) continues to remain rather diffuse and disorganized with a large cluster of competing convection positioned to the northeast. It is this in conjunction with perhaps some dry air entrapment off of mainland Mexico that has inhibited the intensification process thus far. However, as the system begins to distance itself from Mainland Mexico this afternoon and into tonight, there maybe a window for a more significant period of intensification overnight as the system passes over a warmer eddy of water over the Gulf of Mexico to the west of southern Texas. The window for intensification will close around dawn on Wednesday, as the circulation of Francine begins to entrain some drier air from that same approaching trough that is causing the acceleration to the north and northeast. It is with this in mind that the peak intensity of around 90MPH should be achieved either late tonight or during the early morning hours of Wednesday. Francine will also encounter a zone of higher wind shear over the northern Gulf of Mexico during the daylight hours of Wednesday in association with the approaching system. This combination of increasing wind shear and drier air should induce a steady weakening after dawn on Wednesday through landfall Wednesday night as a marginal hurricane First & Final Call: The primary threats with Francine will be flooding and tornado risk given the significant wind shear aloft. Wind damage should be relatively minimal and confined to unpopulated marshland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 I only touched this bc I'm bored....kind of like at the end of a party....."I'm drunk, you're gross, let's go". 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Tuesday at 10:47 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:47 PM Watch homegrown systems 1 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Wednesday at 01:10 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:10 AM In Gonzales, LA, which is SE of Baton Rouge. Will post when I can. Not terribly enthused but we’ll see what happens tonight. Long day of travel but I think I’m in a good spot for now at least. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Wednesday at 03:32 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:32 PM 14 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: In Gonzales, LA, which is SE of Baton Rouge. Will post when I can. Not terribly enthused but we’ll see what happens tonight. Long day of travel but I think I’m in a good spot for now at least. Strong cat 2. Should be wild 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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