2024 - tracking the tropics

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Right. SSTs/OHC can tell you which side of the AN/BN coin to lean, but that only takes you so far. It’s shocking that with shear being low so often across the basin we’re as low as we are. I’ve been factoring in stability/SAL for a few years now and it just seems like every year it gets worse. 

It’s far from apples to apples but it reminds me of the great setups we get in winter and confluence to the north just grinds up what’d be a KU 95 times out of 100. Everything else is good as it gets from a broader seasonal perspective—but you can’t factor in this one persistent feature that kills potential in the cradle.

It’s both maddening and fascinating. Pouring in the Sahara and puffy sand laden clouds in the tropical Atlantic.  

It is super difficult to get prolific/historic seasons...in any regards. Severe, winter, tropical. It is exceedingly difficult to get the dominos to fall perfectly. There probably is a reason for this too which probably can be proved via advanced atmospheric physics and all starting with the balancing equations. The atmosphere is always trying to be in balance which of course is why we have weather. If you have parameters, variables, etc. which are extremely favorable for one thing to happen, there are going to be a set of parameters, variables to try and balance, or cancel those out. Its when all these parameters are extremely volatile do we see extreme weather occur.  

[Childude645]

5 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

It is super difficult to get prolific/historic seasons...in any regards. Severe, winter, tropical. It is exceedingly difficult to get the dominos to fall perfectly. There probably is a reason for this too which probably can be proved via advanced atmospheric physics and all starting with the balancing equations. The atmosphere is always trying to be in balance which of course is why we have weather. If you have parameters, variables, etc. which are extremely favorable for one thing to happen, there are going to be a set of parameters, variables to try and balance, or cancel those out. Its when all these parameters are extremely volatile do we see extreme weather occur.  

so simple, so complex.

[WxWatcher007]

@weatherwiz

Maybe a partial explanation for the quiet in the western portion of the basin too. Too much subsidence in the Gulf/western Atlantic…too much rising air over the African continent, particularly over the Sahara. 

This kind of early peak bust requires all the dominoes to fall too. Take a look at the thread as it has other years included.

 

[CoastalWx]

There’s lots of theories coming out including somewhat related to what Lowry said. I have a former coworker working at the SAB branch at NCEP or whatever they are called now. He’s talked to Klotzbach, as well as some internal people. 
 

In addition to the African monsoon trough being too far north, we’ve had lots of capping or stability over the MDR. I know Don in here has been all over that. Indeed the mid levels are above normal for temps and heights. It’s not a massive ridge really, just a wide area of above normal heights. Some have theorized that the warmer MDR SSTs may have a feedback into above normal heights in the mid levels. You do need heights near or just a bit below normal to sustain tropical convection which don’t always have the vertical acceleration that convection in the Plains has for example. Combine that with the lack of big waves or “seeds” for tropical activity and it may offer at least a partial explanation. 

The atmosphere is not linear and small effects like that can really throw things off. I think sometimes we as a community forget about that. 
 

I can tell you many tropical  experts are dumbfounded, but also taking this as a learning opportunity.

[weatherwiz]

9 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

@weatherwiz

Maybe a partial explanation for the quiet in the western portion of the basin too. Too much subsidence in the Gulf/western Atlantic…too much rising air over the African continent, particularly over the Sahara. 

This kind of early peak bust requires all the dominoes to fall too. Take a look at the thread as it has other years included.

 

 

25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There’s lots of theories coming out including somewhat related to what Lowry said. I have a former coworker working at the SAB branch at NCEP or whatever they are called now. He’s talked to Klotzbach, as well as some internal people. 
 

In addition to the African monsoon trough being too far north, we’ve had lots of capping or stability over the MDR. I know Don in here has been all over that. Indeed the mid levels are above normal for temps and heights. It’s not a massive ridge really, just a wide area of above normal heights. Some have theorized that the warmer MDR SSTs may have a feedback into above normal heights in the mid levels. You do need heights near or just a bit below normal to sustain tropical convection which don’t always have the vertical acceleration that convection in the Plains has for example. Combine that with the lack of big waves or “seeds” for tropical activity and it may offer at least a partial explanation. 

The atmosphere is not linear and small effects like that can really throw things off. I think sometimes we as a community forget about that. 
 

I can tell you many tropical  experts are dumbfounded, but also taking this as a learning opportunity.

This will hopefully be a huge learning curve and I'm sure the studies which will come out from this season should be a huge boost to tropical forecasting in the future. It will be curious to see if any of these signals being discussed now were evident or missed during pre-season analyses. 

[Typhoon Tip]

i explained what's been the issue a couple pages ago.  

hc expansion is screwing up the canonical wave propagation in both time and space.   both the kelvin and mjo, and as a result, the longer term uvm tendencies have been 'stuck' stuck so to speak - like a standing wave.  i'm actually curious at this point if the positioning of this around the hemisphere is just bad luck, or if it is preferential for having former circumstance.

everything being described in scott's post by these others can be linked.   monsoons --> n.   vague yet crucial mid level ridging ...etc 

expanded hc doesn't mean 'big and strong' hc per se.  it in fact means the circulation and internal mechanics are weaker - the termination latitude of the hc where it boundaries with the westerlies become more blurred and also higher in latitude.

low frequency static observations of that like are quite consistent with all that.

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

i explained what's been the issue a couple pages ago.  

hc expansion is screwing up the canonical wave propagation in both time and space.   both the kelvin and mjo, and as a result, the longer term uvm tendencies have been 'stuck' stuck so to speak - like a standing wave.  i'm actually curious at this point if the positioning of this around the hemisphere is just bad luck, or if it is preferential for having former circumstance.

everything being described in scotts post by these others can be linked.   monsoons --> n.   vague yet crucial mid level ridging ...etc 

expanded hc doesn't mean 'big and strong' hc per se.  it in fact means the circulation and internal mechanics are weaker - the termination latitude of the hc where it boundaries with the westerlies become more blurred and also higher in latitude.

low frequency static observations of that like are quite consistent with all that.

Yeah definitely an expansion and enhancement there. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

i explained what's been the issue a couple pages ago.  

hc expansion is screwing up the canonical wave propagation in both time and space.   both the kelvin and mjo, and as a result, the longer term uvm tendencies have been 'stuck' stuck so to speak - like a standing wave.  i'm actually curious at this point if the positioning of this around the hemisphere is just bad luck, or if it is preferential for having former circumstance.

everything being described in scotts post by these others can be linked.   monsoons --> n.   vague yet crucial mid level ridging ...etc 

expanded hc doesn't mean 'big and strong' hc per se.  it in fact means the circulation and internal mechanics are weaker - the termination latitude of the hc where it boundaries with the westerlies become more blurred and also higher in latitude.

low frequency static observations of that like are quite consistent with all that.

Perfect illustration of why CC doesn't automatically mean a 300 ACE every season....not to mention shear from an active Pacific. The globe finds a way to ensure that everything has a check and a balance.

[CoastalWx]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Perfect illustration of why CC doesn't automatically mean a 300 ACE every season....not to mention shear from an active Pacific. The globe finds a way to ensure that everything has a check and a balance.

To quote my coworker, "the science is not settled."

[weatherwiz]

39 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

i explained what's been the issue a couple pages ago.  

hc expansion is screwing up the canonical wave propagation in both time and space.   both the kelvin and mjo, and as a result, the longer term uvm tendencies have been 'stuck' stuck so to speak - like a standing wave.  i'm actually curious at this point if the positioning of this around the hemisphere is just bad luck, or if it is preferential for having former circumstance.

everything being described in scotts post by these others can be linked.   monsoons --> n.   vague yet crucial mid level ridging ...etc 

expanded hc doesn't mean 'big and strong' hc per se.  it in fact means the circulation and internal mechanics are weaker - the termination latitude of the hc where it boundaries with the westerlies become more blurred and also higher in latitude.

low frequency static observations of that like are quite consistent with all that.

There is something about your HC posts that just send tingles down my body. 

[Typhoon Tip]

44 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Perfect illustration of why CC doesn't automatically mean a 300 ACE every season....not to mention shear from an active Pacific. The globe finds a way to ensure that everything has a check and a balance.

mmm  it can lend to quiescence perhaps like this tropical season ( so far..).   but important to realize, the restoring periods can be other way

i'm wondering about the ensuing winter hemisphere.  part of the cane climo isn't really to give web dystopia addicts their high.  it's actually existing as a geophysical mechanism to transport heat from the equatorial latitudes to the polar latitudes. 

with a suppressed cane turn out, where is the heat surplus going?  

it's a question of conjecture at that point.  no aver as to a forecast there.  but intuitively, it's an important question.  my immediate impulse suggestion is to add some amount of a tera joules to the already raging fast base line velocity thing. 

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

There is something about your HC posts that just send tingles down my body. 

i don't make many of them.  altho admittedly, may be the only one that brings that to bear in this social media

it is appropriate in thread at this point.   hc is just one among other noted alterations to the hemisphere's circulation modal anomalies.  it's also been papered in climate.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

i don't make many of them.  altho admittedly, may be the only one that brings that to bear in this social media

it is appropriate in thread at this point.   hc is just one among other noted alterations to the hemisphere's circulation modal anomalies.  it's also been papered in climate.

I wish more discussion would take off with your HC posts. I find them extremely interesting and I think often times there is a tendency to forget the basics. The science and our understanding of the science has become so complex and often times we get caught up in these complexities instead of reverting to the basics. 

For example, with the HC or GWO, we have a damn good understanding of how these cells work and how these cells influence the weather. But we get too caught up in the modeling...always looking for the models to show "the change". This is especially true during the winter when we're all looking at D10 EPS and see the "Change". But instead of looking at models for the change, why not just assess how these cells are behaving in the present and short-term. These clues then can probably be used to have an idea of how "correct" the models are. just a thought that goes through my head now and then 

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

mmm  it can lend to quiescence perhaps like this tropical season ( so far..).   but important to realize, the restoring periods can be other way

i'm wonder about the ensuing winter hemisphere.  part of the cane climo isn't really to give web dystopia addicts their high.  it's actually existing as a geophysical mechanism to transport heat from the equatorial latitudes to the polar latitudes. 

with a suppressed cane turn out, where is the heat surplus going?  

it's a question of conjecture that point.  no aver as to a forecast there.  but intuitively, it's an important question.  my immediate impulse suggestions is to add some amount of a tera joules to the already raging fast base line velocity thing. 

Yes. I was going to add that, but felt the varied impact of how said balance is achieved on humans was implicit.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

i don't make many of them.  altho admittedly, may be the only one that brings that to bear in this social media

it is appropriate in thread at this point.   hc is just one among other noted alterations to the hemisphere's circulation modal anomalies.  it's also been papered in climate.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

it's been quite a while - i mention it when it is appropriate to do so

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

it's been quite a while - i mention it when it is appropriate to do so

Just being an ass

[40/70 Benchmark]

John, I wonder if that excess of heat due to the current network of adjoining bathtubs across the globe could also help to beef up QPF this cold season, as well....even if progressive due to the velocity in the flow, some of these waves that amplify may be able to tap into that. I mean look at the Gulf......interesting to see how much of that is compromised by the balance of tropical activity this fall.

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Just being an ass

i know

in all seriousness tho i was more actively posting related material about jesus  ... 5 years ago.  but it was new then, necessary to get word out. 

i've since supplied links to papers and so forth.  side's hc isn't everything.  it's definitely a part of the roni "integral" - whether the authors of that science are aware or not.   but the regions outside hc are also guilty in the offsetting too.   hc isn't as paramount to the discussion as is considering the entire planet. 

 

[weatherwiz]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

John, I wonder if that excess of heat due to the current network of adjoining bathtubs across the globe could also help to beef up QPF this cold season, as well....even if progressive due to the velocity in the flow, some of these waves that amplify may be able to tap into that. I mean look at the Gulf......interesting to see how much of that is compromised by the balance of tropical activity this fall.

Good point...also I often wonder if the +departures off the coast have been a culprit in shifting the baroclinic zone west...i.e. a contributor to our slew of depressing cutters. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Good point...also I often wonder if the +departures off the coast have been a culprit in shifting the baroclinic zone west...i.e. a contributor to our slew of depressing cutters. 

@bluewavehas indicated as such....specifically that Decemebr 2021 deal that left a trail of naked handstands from Binghamton to Dendrite.

[Typhoon Tip]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

John, I wonder if that excess of heat due to the current network of adjoining bathtubs across the globe could also help to beef up QPF this cold season, as well....even if progressive due to the velocity in the flow, some of these waves that amplify may be able to tap into that. I mean look at the Gulf......interesting to see how much of that is compromised by the balance of tropical activity this fall.

oh shit yes.  of course.  

not intending condescension there ( ha)  

no but just as a base physical consequence to more warm air, it evaporates more water. that means the ambient atmosphere holds more water mass - such that all events in that same ambient medium will avail.  that very basic concept is why rain rates have been increasing around the world ... in close correlation with cc ...etc.  no question remains re that connection.

based upon that facet, increasing ( non dispersive ) ohc, and then inducing a mechanism to release it - that's sort of what i was 'hinting' at with that 'restoring going the other way' thing a while ago  etc - that sets up regions in storm frequency to additional prolific results.  the in situ storm gradients become excessive - the baroclinic physical result is rain ( or snow or whatever ).  positive feedback ==>  evening news

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

What’s going currently perfectly illustrates what climate models have been predicting for a long time. Increased HC isn’t linear with increased hurricane numbers. Though high end cat 5s can become hypothetically more common. 
One thing for sure is that LI and NE are loosing the cold water buffer that once shielded us from majors. While they will continue to be rare, the high end has more potential.

[FXWX]

19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

oh shit yes.  of course.  

not intending condescension there ( ha)  

no but just as a base physical consequence to more warm air, it evaporates more water. that means the ambient atmosphere holds more water mass - such that all events in that same ambient medium will avail.  that very basic concept is why rain rates have been increasing around the world ... in close correlation with cc ...etc.  no question remains re that connection.

based upon that facet, increasing ( non dispersive ) ohc, and then inducing a mechanism to release it - that's sort of what i was 'hinting' at with that 'restoring going the other way' thing a while ago  etc - that sets up regions in storm frequency to additional prolific results.  the in situ storm gradients become excessive - the baroclinic physical result is rain ( or snow or whatever ).  positive feedback ==>  evening news

 

Agree... Agree... Agree...  Hard to argue that the frequency of precipitation bombs has been increasing; be it spring, summer, fall or winter!  Location and coverage of events will always be highly dependent upon short term synoptics, but certainly fits the footprint of any atmosphere that is more frequently getting H2O load!

[Typhoon Tip]

you know ... i admit to not taking the 00z nam very seriously.   heh, why should i -

but seeing it persist with the 06 and now 12, re a rapid book-end spin up tracking toward cape code, and the euro being more than less on board, i would think at least marine interests around the horn should be made aware.  i'm sure that's happening - so maybe more for us   lol

it'll probably miss. nam may be both right about existing and wrong about where.  but the point is, it's short term/now cast

[WxWatcher007]

51 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

you know ... i admit to not taking the 00z nam very seriously.   heh, why should i -

but seeing it persist with the 06 and now 12, re a rapid book-end spin up tracking toward cape code, and the euro being more than less on board, i would think at least marine interests around the horn should be made aware.  i'm sure that's happening - so maybe more for us   lol

it'll probably miss. nam may be both right about existing and wrong about where.  but the point is, it's short term/now cast

The signal for some area of low pressure to develop off the east coast has been across guidance for the better part of a week now…likely non-tropical or perhaps hybrid. 

I’ll readily admit I’m grasping for straws as the basin remains barren with the following comment, but there may be a window for some September hybrid lows with so many troughs and offshore boundaries showing up on the models in the next 7-10 days. 

[WxWatcher007]

Lemon tagged by the NHC now

[WinterWolf]

48 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Lemon tagged by the NHC now

Where abouts is it tagged? Off NC? 

[CoastalWx]

Globals are definitely way east. 

[WxWatcher007]

Definitely east and not for us. But like I said earlier there is a window with this early season troughing if things align right. Maybe next week with a boundary over the Gulf and SE. 

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

With slim pickin's out there to analyze in the Atlantic, why not spend a few minutes on this newest lemon. 

I first posted about the potential here on August 29th (yes, with my peak season forecast in mortal danger I will throw up a whoop for identifying this lol) as the guidance was consistent in developing an area of low pressure or series of areas along a stalled frontal boundary. Normally we see these during the early or latter part of the season, but with greater EC troughing recently, a window of opportunity has opened. 

Yesterday, you could see a robust area of lower level vorticity along the boundary

 

Today that vorticity has wrapped up into an area of low pressure along the boundary. 

 

This is not currently tropical for a few reasons. First and foremost, it's attached to a boundary. That means that the low is baroclinic, not tropical. 

 

Secondly, despite there being a low and convection nearby, the convection is getting blasted to the east by very strong shear. 

 

The result is the following:

While the boundary-attached low is clearly able to generate convection, the shear is pushing the convection off in a way that currently prevents this from becoming independent of the boundary and sustaining the necessary convection over the center to begin the tropical genesis process. 

Over the next few days however, the guidance tries to at least get this low to intensify some, and that could be the window for it to acquire more tropical characteristics. I doubt given the shear that it'll be able to fully become tropical, but there will at the least be a non-tropical low that quickly develops off the East Coast as it moves into Nova Scotia this weekend, and it could acquire enough convection during the intensification phase to be counted as subtropical. 

For those that truly care about the meteorology of tropical genesis, this will be interesting to watch. 

I should also note...that with persistent troughing over the next week or so, this is unlikely to be our only area to monitor. The guidance is picking up on a second quick developing low offshore late this weekend and perhaps another further south sometime next week. These boundaries can spur seedlings that become NS, especially if they are further south like the long range Euro hints at today. Just something to be aware of.