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2024 - tracking the tropics


mcglups
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3 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Yep... I agree... it will tough to not go through a formation surge moving into and through the mid-month period.  Whether or not that leads to landfalls aways comes down to relatively short term pattern evolutions.  Right now, I don't see an ominous EC pattern but that can change quickly.  

 

I'm no tropical expert, but my gut says this will go late into the Fall. That would be interesting as we get closer to the cold season with deeper troughs. We've seen what happens when these deep troughs end up slinging almost tropical-like lows into SNE in October. 

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm no tropical expert, but my gut says this will go late into the Fall. That would be interesting as we get closer to the cold season with deeper troughs. We've seen what happens when these deep troughs end up slinging almost tropical-like lows into SNE in October. 

And man we’ve had some good ones. The one on the cape a few years ago was one of my favorite chases.

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm no tropical expert, but my gut says this will go late into the Fall. That would be interesting as we get closer to the cold season with deeper troughs. We've seen what happens when these deep troughs end up slinging almost tropical-like lows into SNE in October. 

Would not be shocked...  Actually, I always like (general term) the late September into early / mid-October period for that reason alone...   Far more interesting trying to time a deepening eastward trough's interaction with a tropical system moving near the Bahamas or approaching the NC coastal plain than watching a system off the EC with a lazy upper air flow.  If you want some trouble, have a pattern that can rocket something north or northwest into the EC?

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36 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Yep... I agree... it will tough to not go through a formation surge moving into and through the mid-month period.  Whether or not that leads to landfalls aways comes down to relatively short term pattern evolutions.  Right now, I don't see an ominous EC pattern but that can change quickly.  

 

just to foot this meme, the mjo desk are negging the teleconnection through mid month for the mdr, too.

wah wah wahhh.   

they do remind [however] that we're nearing climo peak and that may offset the signals but ... i'm not sure is see a pathway even there, without a better tw trafficking behavior.   there's been a dearth of robust waves and the general counts have been down. 

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49 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That’s the one. Crazy damage on the Cape. Looked and sounded like a legit cat 1. 

That was cat 1 damage right to here.! Haven’t heard wind like that since I’ve moved here. The stations near the ocean gusting to 90+ prove it. The harbormaster in Marshfield wasn’t even on the water (place is a bit inland) had a gust to 88mph. 

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16 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

that was a crazy 12z GFS run in the west Pacific.. ShanShan is pretty much hanging in the same general area for the next 10 days 

A few days back it was progged to hit the Nagoya area, where my son and DIL live, as a Cat 1.  Now it looks to park at the southernmost part of Honshu and dump feet of rain.

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