CoastalWx Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 3 minutes ago, FXWX said: Yep... I agree... it will tough to not go through a formation surge moving into and through the mid-month period. Whether or not that leads to landfalls aways comes down to relatively short term pattern evolutions. Right now, I don't see an ominous EC pattern but that can change quickly. I'm no tropical expert, but my gut says this will go late into the Fall. That would be interesting as we get closer to the cold season with deeper troughs. We've seen what happens when these deep troughs end up slinging almost tropical-like lows into SNE in October. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'm no tropical expert, but my gut says this will go late into the Fall. That would be interesting as we get closer to the cold season with deeper troughs. We've seen what happens when these deep troughs end up slinging almost tropical-like lows into SNE in October. And man we’ve had some good ones. The one on the cape a few years ago was one of my favorite chases. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'm no tropical expert, but my gut says this will go late into the Fall. That would be interesting as we get closer to the cold season with deeper troughs. We've seen what happens when these deep troughs end up slinging almost tropical-like lows into SNE in October. Would not be shocked... Actually, I always like (general term) the late September into early / mid-October period for that reason alone... Far more interesting trying to time a deepening eastward trough's interaction with a tropical system moving near the Bahamas or approaching the NC coastal plain than watching a system off the EC with a lazy upper air flow. If you want some trouble, have a pattern that can rocket something north or northwest into the EC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 36 minutes ago, FXWX said: Yep... I agree... it will tough to not go through a formation surge moving into and through the mid-month period. Whether or not that leads to landfalls aways comes down to relatively short term pattern evolutions. Right now, I don't see an ominous EC pattern but that can change quickly. just to foot this meme, the mjo desk are negging the teleconnection through mid month for the mdr, too. wah wah wahhh. they do remind [however] that we're nearing climo peak and that may offset the signals but ... i'm not sure is see a pathway even there, without a better tw trafficking behavior. there's been a dearth of robust waves and the general counts have been down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 there's also home grown season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 42 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: And man we’ve had some good ones. The one on the cape a few years ago was one of my favorite chases. October 2021? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 can we get it to happen in early nov with a cold airmass lurking by … 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 that was a crazy 12z GFS run in the west Pacific.. ShanShan is pretty much hanging in the same general area for the next 10 days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 13 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: that was a crazy 12z GFS run in the west Pacific.. ShanShan is pretty much hanging in the same general area for the next 10 days Yeah, it's wild but no other model does that (that I had seen). but the gfs has been steady. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 28 Share Posted August 28 7 hours ago, CoastalWx said: October 2021? That’s the one. Crazy damage on the Cape. Looked and sounded like a legit cat 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 28 Share Posted August 28 49 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: That’s the one. Crazy damage on the Cape. Looked and sounded like a legit cat 1. That was cat 1 damage right to here.! Haven’t heard wind like that since I’ve moved here. The stations near the ocean gusting to 90+ prove it. The harbormaster in Marshfield wasn’t even on the water (place is a bit inland) had a gust to 88mph. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 28 Share Posted August 28 6z gfs would be fun in New England 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 28 Share Posted August 28 10 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: That’s the one. Crazy damage on the Cape. Looked and sounded like a legit cat 1. I was in Uganda for that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 28 Share Posted August 28 16 hours ago, ineedsnow said: that was a crazy 12z GFS run in the west Pacific.. ShanShan is pretty much hanging in the same general area for the next 10 days A few days back it was progged to hit the Nagoya area, where my son and DIL live, as a Cat 1. Now it looks to park at the southernmost part of Honshu and dump feet of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted August 28 Share Posted August 28 10 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: That’s the one. Crazy damage on the Cape. Looked and sounded like a legit cat 1. Yeah that was intense. Lot of toppled pines with that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 28 Share Posted August 28 Hey! We got a yellow in the Atlantic. That’s something, right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 28 Share Posted August 28 impressive 12z ggem run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 28 Share Posted August 28 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: impressive 12z ggem run How so Tip? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 28 Share Posted August 28 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: How so Tip? coils up a solid tc and has it moving along the archipelago to emerge near the bahamas toward the end of the run 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 28 Share Posted August 28 Fantasy Canadian runs. Step 1 in activity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 28 Share Posted August 28 Monster wave coming off Africa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 28 Share Posted August 28 4 hours ago, Cyclone-68 said: Hey! We got a yellow in the Atlantic. That’s something, right? something in mumbai 29 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Monster wave coming off Africa monster in mumbai 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 28 Share Posted August 28 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: impressive 12z ggem run >GGEM Tales from the Canadian loony asylum datasets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 28 Share Posted August 28 1 hour ago, ineedsnow said: Monster wave coming off Africa The one heading towards Morocco? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 28 Share Posted August 28 I see what you mean. Maybe this will do something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 28 Share Posted August 28 54 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I see what you mean. Maybe this will do something. It better if this hyper active call is gonna even come close to being remotely correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 28 Share Posted August 28 2 hours ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: something in mumbai monster in mumbai Please…enough with this Mumbai BS. It isn’t even funny, and it never was. 4 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 28 Share Posted August 28 3 hours ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: something in mumbai monster in mumbai Wtf is with all this Mumbai mumbo jumbo? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 28 Share Posted August 28 FWIW 18z GEFS liking that new melon a bit more and the one coming off Africa 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 28 Share Posted August 28 26 minutes ago, Hoth said: Wtf is with all this Mumbai mumbo jumbo? F’n nonsense. Guy thinks he’s a comedian, except nobody is laughing. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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