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2024 - tracking the tropics


mcglups
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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Heading into peak season with dead Atlantic. 

I can't see the earlier forecasts coming to fruition.  There will be nothing this week and then we are already into September.  How can it bust so bad?   I understand if it was just an average season, being off somewhat.  

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18 hours ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

I would put 1938, Hazel, Sandy, and Fiona all into the same category. All four took that unusual left hook track late in the season and they all intensified rapidly and had crazy trough interactions. 

Compared to Sandy's 90° turn, the others merely avoided the recurve.  Another similarity is that all 4 came somewhat late in the TC season.

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56 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

I can't see the earlier forecasts coming to fruition.  There will be nothing this week and then we are already into September.  How can it bust so bad?   I understand if it was just an average season, being off somewhat.  

There’s been a few theories out there. One being ITCZ shifted pretty far north allowing more dust and also waves avoiding very warm water. 
 

It will obviously get more active, but definitely quieter than many thought so far.

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1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

Can we just get the Euro AI to verify lol

Still think homebrew region (especially Gulf) is best bet for activity through next week but eventually something will pop in the MDR. Let’s see how this latest wave coming off Africa does. 

That wave should be hounded less by SAL than prior waves so the signal for genesis could gradually improve on the other models in the coming days. 

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just a late running season. Kind of a delayed but not denied There’ll likely be canes and threats very late into Roctober. Sept should be wild 

You need to upgrade your tackle box. No one's biting anymore.

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10 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Heading into peak season with dead Atlantic. 

We are still so far ahead of normal with ACE, though....I feel like this is analogous to when people bitch about being caught in a subsidence slot for a few hours during blizzards only to forget about it 4 hours later when they pull 3"/hr. I mean, we probably aren't catching 2005, but not worried about it falling short of hyperactive at this point.

Guess we settle for 20" instead of 30"-

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2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The top right graphic there with wind observations is absolutely wild. 

Still my favorite hurricane....never forget pulling my first all nighter for a hurricane as an 11 year old...you know it was nuts when TWC skipped the usual dead-time programming from 2-5am when they keep recycling the 1am programming.

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12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We are still so far ahead of normal with ACE, though....I feel like this is analogous to when people bitch about being caught in a subsidence slot for a few hours during blizzards only to forget about it 4 hours later when they pull 3"/hr. I mean, we probably aren't catching 2005, but not worried about it falling short of hyperactive at this point.

Guess we settle for 20" instead of 30"-

I get the ACE argument mostly due to one storm. But I’m pretty sure most did not expect it to be so quiet. Those forecasts for 25-33 storms probably will be in trouble. 

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it's not really relevant to me.   being ahead or behind in ace right now as of aug 25 2024 ... not sure what that has to do with failing expectation number of tcs.

a better performance up to this point then ace would likely be even bigger than now. 

ace being bigger than climate because of two systems doesn't diminish the failure in the other sense

as to where we're going with this season   first of all, who or what source pre characterized this season as 'hyperactive' ?  i only read above normal.  i'm just wondering if the social media mill's been bunning this season.   if it came from some traditional or formally accepted and proven source than shame on them - that's an irresponsible attempt.

that said, we've seen flurries of activity in sep of the past.  however, the two bigger seasons that at least i can remember, 1995 and 2005 they did seem to 'head start' by virtue of having actual tcs by now.   granted.   just experience and some knowledge about how this shit works... i don't believe getting more than 6 maybe 8 track-able events out of a single month is very likely.     i agree the clock ticks.   

i think a better metaphor, than comparing apple ace to orange ace, ... is like being completely eligible and wanting to create a family but you're 55  

 

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Regarding Hazel which was mentioned a page back, that had the most impressive winds of any that I’ve personally experienced.  Not much rain but my vivid memory of the tops of railroad utility poles cartwheeling down my street a mile from the tracks has been indelibly etched into my consciousness for the past 70 years despite Hazel being over land after landfalling over the SC/NC border and then rocketing NNW.  I also have a less vivid memory of snow falling while we were trick or treating 2 weeks later.

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3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I get the ACE argument mostly due to one storm. But I’m pretty sure most did not expect it to be so quiet. Those forecasts for 25-33 storms probably will be in trouble. 

Right....but take the most significant storm out of any season and it alters the perception of it rather dramatically...tropics or winter.

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3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I get the ACE argument mostly due to one storm. But I’m pretty sure most did not expect it to be so quiet. Those forecasts for 25-33 storms probably will be in trouble. 

I think climo being what it is with the dramatic ramp up that usually happens post August 20, that ACE and the NS count being what it was August 15 vs August 25 mean very different things if that makes sense. 

It’s a reasonable argument on 8/15 to say well look, we’re at top 3 ACE in the satellite era and 5/3/1 is tremendous when normal should be 2/1/0 or whatever, and the peak is coming—steady as she goes. That’s why I disagreed with the arguments that the season had disappointed. To date. 

But today with the same numbers the climo treadmill speeds up by the day. We’re at peak broadly speaking. There should be activity in the Atlantic but Hawaii is getting scraped by the symmetrical eye of an intensifying hurricane.

Every day that passes the NS forecasts look more endangered, but I still think H and MH are easily within range. 2022 and 2017 are good reminders that we can flip late and still put up an exceptionally high quality season. 
 

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Some of the theories are interesting. I certainly just want to understand it better. My guess a though later September into November will be quite busy. 

I do think it’s all about stability. In the eastern MDR it’s being reinforced by the MT/ITCZ being so north that any vigorous waves in recent weeks have rolled off Africa so far north that they get choked by SAL and much colder SSTs. Just look at how everything shut off after Ernesto. If waves were rolling off anywhere between 10-15N we’re all having a different conversation. 

cdas-sflux_sst_eatl_1.png
 

g16split.jpg

That and a suppressive MJO combine to kill anything leaving Africa before it can even get far enough west to get off life support. If you look at the Euro and GFS moving forward, basically everything rolling off is doing so at 20N lol. You can’t even sniff a coherent enough wave to develop until 60W or greater. 

For the sake of my peak season forecast that needs to be transient lol but I’m not going to worry until after Sept 7 or so. 

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right....but take the most significant storm out of any season and it alters the perception of it rather dramatically...tropics or winter.

It’s one metric skewed by one storm. I think there a few reasons why this season so far has been quieter in terms of named events. I know you want the ACE for winter lol.

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It has been an ongoing debate on these boards for many years and something I always go back and forth on, but I’m not so sure you can use one storm (whether it be severe, winter, tropical) to characterize a season as a whole. Sometimes the higher end events are more of a product of the short-term pattern and how the pieces evolved and interacted versus the overall regime or what regime dominated during that season. 
 

when it comes to this tropical season, what was the biggest focal point from many of the tropical forecasts? It was the forecast of a record named number of storms and these forecasts blew any previous forecasts for nunber of storms out of the water. 
 

At least up until now, can you really say this has been a wild season, regardless of what what some index says? We’re definitely going to see more storms and there certainly will be potential for major hurricanes and land falling hurricanes, however, it’s been a total dud versus expectations…period. 

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