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2024 - tracking the tropics


mcglups
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Bob had a devastating surge in Buzzards Bay. I was 8 and remember downtown Wareham being flooded (6ft if i recall)...which is bonkers. Swifts Beach was demolished, and many of those houses were rebuilt on stilts. It's crazy we haven't even come close to that in 33 years down here. 

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29 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’d watch the Gulf next week. 

in theory .. but man, these operational models are fighting the telecon - which are based on the ensemble mean/derivatives that the operational models are a part of... :blink:

but a -PNA through ~ D8 or 10 should be ridging more here than it is - which is supposed to lower bulk shear and provide a favorable layout down there.

it's like we have the cool node the last 2 weeks..  fixed in position between ohio and nova scotia, and the rest of the hemisphere is flowing around it.  regardless of mode ...like it's a cold rock in the stream.  

anyway, farther e the mdr is suggested by the recent ggem operational runs.  the most recent gfs is got an unlikely ri tc in the eastern caribbean's canonical 'dead zone' ... either way, activity matches the anticipation laid out by the mjo desk

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14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Meh, a cat 1 would just serve to ruin vacation for a day. I'd want a cat 3 or higher to make it worthwhile lol.

cat 1 winds are dramatic though.   it's exciting, and if one is on vacation ...that's like a having an activity day built in 

day 1 beach day.  day 2 hurricaning.   day 3 golf, dinner and bangin'  ...etc

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

cat 1 winds are dramatic though.   it's exciting, and if one is on vacation ...that's like a having an activity day built in 

day 1 beach day.  day 2 hurricaning.   day 3 golf, dinner and bangin'  ...etc

Bahaha Good one John…this is good. Keep these posts coming. :lol:

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On 8/21/2024 at 2:43 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

Finally got it out. My peak season forecast. I think the NS projections may be overshot but I think the theme of this peak (and season as a result) will be quality over quantity. That said, I still think we get to the low 20s in NS and well over 200 ACE. 

Enjoy. 

 

have to remember to give this a read today

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26 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Either the second half of September/October are going to be historic or at least when it comes to the number of named storms, this will be a big dud. 

But, given what we've seen develop, especially with Beryl, I guess it shows what kind of potential was in place. 

It’s a little nerve wracking to see so little activity on models into September, but the forecast is the forecast now. Hard to have the Atlantic lid come off when the EPAC is cooking. 

I still firmly believe that once the monsoon trough relocates south for waves to exit Africa at a lower latitude and SAL ratchets down things will take off. 

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25 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

It’s a little nerve wracking to see so little activity on models into September, but the forecast is the forecast now. Hard to have the Atlantic lid come off when the EPAC is cooking. 

I still firmly believe that once the monsoon trough relocates south for waves to exit Africa at a lower latitude and SAL ratchets down things will take off. 

This is certainly possible. 

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15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe we can get some late season home brew in October/early November. That would be fun with the timing of troughs getting deeper as we head into the cold season.

I thought we had a window in early August with a favorable Atlantic ridge/trough setup and we kinda just missed with Debby and especially Ernesto. 

I do think that second window for us is mid-September into much of October because of what you said. September may be early but it’s climo favored and I do think we want some semblance of strong ridging in the Atlantic to get waves into the western Atlantic. We don’t have a ton of landfalling October systems in the record. 

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