Torch Tiger Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 I didn't edit anything, but forced through :p 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 Looks like that was filmed in the 70's lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 15 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: I didn't edit anything, but forced through :p watch 37:04, microburst/nado hit there. nearly everything gone. I was there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 Good video! Tropics are dead so we watch that instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 Bob had a devastating surge in Buzzards Bay. I was 8 and remember downtown Wareham being flooded (6ft if i recall)...which is bonkers. Swifts Beach was demolished, and many of those houses were rebuilt on stilts. It's crazy we haven't even come close to that in 33 years down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 22 hours ago, weatherwiz said: Wonder if there is a small window to get a quick spin-up system off the Florida coast this weekend I’d watch the Gulf next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’d watch the Gulf next week. yeah there are some hints for something quick to spin up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 29 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’d watch the Gulf next week. in theory .. but man, these operational models are fighting the telecon - which are based on the ensemble mean/derivatives that the operational models are a part of... but a -PNA through ~ D8 or 10 should be ridging more here than it is - which is supposed to lower bulk shear and provide a favorable layout down there. it's like we have the cool node the last 2 weeks.. fixed in position between ohio and nova scotia, and the rest of the hemisphere is flowing around it. regardless of mode ...like it's a cold rock in the stream. anyway, farther e the mdr is suggested by the recent ggem operational runs. the most recent gfs is got an unlikely ri tc in the eastern caribbean's canonical 'dead zone' ... either way, activity matches the anticipation laid out by the mjo desk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’d watch the Gulf next week. Yay! I’m in Ft Myers in two weeks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 still zip from the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 1 hour ago, Cyclone-68 said: Yay! I’m in Ft Myers in two weeks If anything did pop it’d probably be headed toward TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 Meh, a cat 1 would just serve to ruin vacation for a day. I'd want a cat 3 or higher to make it worthwhile lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Meh, a cat 1 would just serve to ruin vacation for a day. I'd want a cat 3 or higher to make it worthwhile lol. cat 1 winds are dramatic though. it's exciting, and if one is on vacation ...that's like a having an activity day built in day 1 beach day. day 2 hurricaning. day 3 golf, dinner and bangin' ...etc 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Meh, a cat 1 would just serve to ruin vacation for a day. I'd want a cat 3 or higher to make it worthwhile lol. Man I would take a gusty thundershower at this point 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: cat 1 winds are dramatic though. it's exciting, and if one is on vacation ...that's like a having an activity day built in day 1 beach day. day 2 hurricaning. day 3 golf, dinner and bangin' ...etc Bahaha Good one John…this is good. Keep these posts coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 Dead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Dead Either the second half of September/October are going to be historic or at least when it comes to the number of named storms, this will be a big dud. But, given what we've seen develop, especially with Beryl, I guess it shows what kind of potential was in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 On 8/21/2024 at 2:43 PM, WxWatcher007 said: Finally got it out. My peak season forecast. I think the NS projections may be overshot but I think the theme of this peak (and season as a result) will be quality over quantity. That said, I still think we get to the low 20s in NS and well over 200 ACE. Enjoy. have to remember to give this a read today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 weirdly coincidental .. this BBC article surfaces https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20240820-why-category-1-hurricane-ernesto-is-still-dangerous?utm_source=pocket-newtab-en-us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 We still have a suppressed MJO wave for awhile over the Atlantic. Also, some theories are that a displaced ITCZ to the north is aiding this by transferring dust and also waves not taking advantage of warm fuel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 26 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Either the second half of September/October are going to be historic or at least when it comes to the number of named storms, this will be a big dud. But, given what we've seen develop, especially with Beryl, I guess it shows what kind of potential was in place. It’s a little nerve wracking to see so little activity on models into September, but the forecast is the forecast now. Hard to have the Atlantic lid come off when the EPAC is cooking. I still firmly believe that once the monsoon trough relocates south for waves to exit Africa at a lower latitude and SAL ratchets down things will take off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 Maybe we can get some late season home brew in October/early November. That would be fun with the timing of troughs getting deeper as we head into the cold season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 25 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: It’s a little nerve wracking to see so little activity on models into September, but the forecast is the forecast now. Hard to have the Atlantic lid come off when the EPAC is cooking. I still firmly believe that once the monsoon trough relocates south for waves to exit Africa at a lower latitude and SAL ratchets down things will take off. This is certainly possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Maybe we can get some late season home brew in October/early November. That would be fun with the timing of troughs getting deeper as we head into the cold season. I thought we had a window in early August with a favorable Atlantic ridge/trough setup and we kinda just missed with Debby and especially Ernesto. I do think that second window for us is mid-September into much of October because of what you said. September may be early but it’s climo favored and I do think we want some semblance of strong ridging in the Atlantic to get waves into the western Atlantic. We don’t have a ton of landfalling October systems in the record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Maybe we can get some late season home brew in October/early November. That would be fun with the timing of troughs getting deeper as we head into the cold season. I feel like we could see a Michael redux this fall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 I envision a Sandy like storm this fall but right into SNE instead of NYC 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I envision a weenie like object this fall but right into my tukis instead of my mouth Shake it up 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: I envision a Sandy like storm this fall but right into SNE instead of NYC no shit - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChangeofSeasonsWX Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: I envision a Sandy like storm this fall but right into SNE instead of NYC That would be fun. Or maybe a Hazel-type storm into New England. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 Yeah I want a Hazel redux just further north 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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