2024 - tracking the tropics

[Torch Tiger]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Funny you say that. In 1993 I ran cross country. We had a course down in Dartmouth and my coach said that we had to be careful because there were still some tree dangers with a tornado they had from Hurricane Bob. I was surprised to hear that, but sure enough...tons of trees down in a small area. 

Around 1/4 mi. from where the roof was blown off the hotel in E. Fal, walking distance to our house, there was a property abutting Green Pond that lost nearly every tree, must have been 30 or 50 at least.  But the neighbors only lost a few trees.  Was wild

[Torch Tiger]

Found my VHS player and VHS.  Assuming my capture card does its job and the VHS tape isn't too far gone, should have a Bob video soon.

[Typhoon Tip]

welp ...that 'bout wraps it up for 2024

[WinterWolf]

So much for the big hyper active year….

[CoastalWx]

GFS showing signs of life.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS showing signs of life.

i've noticed the gfs has actually not completely sucked pieces of cat shit when it comes to targeting genesis.   i haven't looked very closely at it - could be it just happened to score when i checked so ...this opinion doesn't mean anything ... but, have noticed it enough that it seemed okay relative to having no clue at all

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

i've noticed the gfs has actually not completely sucked pieces of cat shit when it comes to targeting genesis.   i haven't looked very closely at it - could be it just happened to score when i checked so ...this opinion doesn't mean anything ... but, have noticed it enough that it seemed okay relative to having no clue at all

I trust it more than the Euro, so if it shows something....I at least keep an eye on it.

[Typhoon Tip]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I trust it more than the Euro, so if it shows something....I at least keep an eye on it.

yeah, like that

[HIPPYVALLEY]

20 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

Found my VHS player and VHS.  Assuming my capture card does its job and the VHS tape isn't too far gone, should have a Bob video soon.

If you or anybody ever needs help with that I believe I still have the technology in my basement to do that. I might even still have a machine that can transfer VHS to DVD.

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

So much for the big hyper active year….

 

58 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS showing signs of life.

I’m writing up my annual peak season forecast today. It’s coming…

[weatherwiz]

Hawaii may get a little something late in the weekend

[Typhoon Tip]

MJO desk:

• During the past 2 weeks, the RMM-based MJO signal has increased in amplitude and is now
located over the Indian Ocean (Phase 2).
• Dynamical models are in good agreement regarding enhanced MJO activity across the Indian
Ocean and Maritime Continent during the next 2 weeks.
• The MJO propagation across the Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent supports an enhanced
easterly wave train coming off of Africa in late August into early September.
• Combined with anomalously warm SSTs, and the approaching climatological peak of
hurricane season, this favors high chances for tropical cyclone (TC) development over the
Atlantic Main Development Region despite the suppressed convective pattern aloft.

[weatherwiz]

looks like a 1-2-3 punch for Hawaii  

[Cyclone-68]

Ha. The hurricane center said no tropical cyclones for the next SEVEN days. I don’t think I’ve ever seen that past 48 hours?

[weathafella]

On 8/19/2024 at 9:56 AM, tamarack said:

Wind damage from Gloria and from Bob was similar (extensive but not catastrophic) in Maine, but Bob had far more rain here.  PWM recorded 1.3" from Gloria and 8.2" from Bob, still the city's 2nd rainiest event, behind the 12"+ from the October 1996 northeast storm.  In September 1985 I'd just started working for Public Lands and was commuting weekly from Fort Kent to Augusta.  Governor Brennan closed state offices at noon that Friday, so I was able to drive north in daylight.  In FK it was just a strong fall storm, with about 1.5" and modest wind. 

Bob is the only TC in my experience that had backside NW winds as strong as the SE, though 95% of the rain came before the wind shift.  A stand of tall bigtooth aspen at the Hebron public lot, ~10 miles NW from LEW, was 2/3 flattened, 1/3 pointing NW and 1/3 pointing SE.  We had 6.41" at our (then) Gardiner home, greatest one-day precip I've measured (2nd was 6" from Belle in FK, August 1976) and 2nd highest for 24 hours behind the 8.9" from the PRE plus Doria in August 1971.

For you and me, Carol, Edna, Hazel, Donna.  Nothing really has approached that 1954-60 experience since in my lifetime.   I was not here for Gloria.

[tamarack]

31 minutes ago, weathafella said:

For you and me, Carol, Edna, Hazel, Donna.  Nothing really has approached that 1954-60 experience since in my lifetime.   I was not here for Gloria.

Also had significant flooding from Connie's 5-7" but missed even more by a whisker as Diane was 2-3" here, far more to the north and west. 
We were let go from school at noon during Donna and I went down to the local beach - good place to watch the whitecaps and not much rain was falling.  A guy several years older went out in his Sailfish (sailboard that was a teens favorite) and promptly watched his mast get snapped.

[weathafella]

33 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Also had significant flooding from Connie's 5-7" but missed even more by a whisker as Diane was 2-3" here, far more to the north and west. 
We were let go from school at noon during Donna and I went down to the local beach - good place to watch the whitecaps and not much rain was falling.  A guy several years older went out in his Sailfish (sailboard that was a teens favorite) and promptly watched his mast get snapped.

My school decided to keep us there until the worst of Donna had passed.  I used to walk to and from school-I was in the 8th grade for Donna, but in this case my mother came to pick me up and we drove home.  Watching the winds and rains unexpectedly nail us while we were in school was amazing especially since I had science class and the student teacher we had was kind of a wx weenie.   3 months later we were entering one amazing winter!

[WinterWolf]

5 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

I’m writing up my annual peak season forecast today. It’s coming…

I hope something is coming…maybe even here. 

[tamarack]

48 minutes ago, weathafella said:

My school decided to keep us there until the worst of Donna had passed.  I used to walk to and from school-I was in the 8th grade for Donna, but in this case my mother came to pick me up and we drove home.  Watching the winds and rains unexpectedly nail us while we were in school was amazing especially since I had science class and the student teacher we had was kind of a wx weenie.   3 months later we were entering one amazing winter!

I had just begun my freshman year when Donna roared thru, and 1960-61 reached triple digits at my place, though the Feb 3-4 storm was estimate only (24") thanks to the wild winds.  Depth increases at nearby sites point to at least that much.  Essentially nothing thru 12/10, then:  18" Dec 11-12;   20" Jan 19-20;   24" Feb 3-4 plus a surprise paste bomb (12") on 3/23.  Messy snows into mid-April and a few IP seen on 5/27.  From March 18-19, 1956 thru Feb. 3-4, 1961 we saw 7 storms of 18" or greater.  Even Fort Kent can't begin to touch that.  Closest is at our current place, Jan 2015 thru March 2018, with 6 storms of 15.5" to 21", but that run has 4 years before and 4 after without reaching even 14".

[CoastalWx]

Gfs cancels tropical season again

[Cyclone-68]

I mean at this point isn’t  it going to take a historic September to reach the predictions from earlier? 

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

23 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Hawaii may get a little something late in the weekend

 

Oh yes gilma the donut.

[weatherwiz]

Wonder if there is a small window to get a quick spin-up system off the Florida coast this weekend

[WxWatcher007]

Finally got it out. My peak season forecast. I think the NS projections may be overshot but I think the theme of this peak (and season as a result) will be quality over quantity. That said, I still think we get to the low 20s in NS and well over 200 ACE. 

Enjoy. 

23 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

WxWatcher007 2024 Atlantic Peak Season Forecast

One year ago today, we had an extraordinarily active basin that set the stage for a high end peak season, with three named storms and two additional areas with high odds of development. This year, despite favorable conditions, generally we have the opposite, with models even struggling to latch onto an area with high odds of development through the end of the month. 

Peak season has arrived however, which I define as August 20th through October 20th. During this ~8 week period approximately 2/3 of the Atlantic Hurricane season takes place historically. 

This is my sixth annual peak season forecast, and despite the lack of activity, I think we're headed for an even bigger peak than last season which featured 15 named storms (NS), 6 hurricanes (H), and 3 major hurricanes (MH).

Last year was my best forecast. Let's keep the streak of good forecasts going.

I've been quite good overall other than a disastrous 2021  

Seasonal Grades

2019 Grade: B+
2020 Grade: A-
2021 Grade: C
2022 Grade: B
2023 Grade: A

 

We've gotten accustomed to high NS years. In the recent past, we have seen seasons that feature hot starts in terms of NS, but climo has dictated that many of those systems were early season slop. I think our familiarity with that has given many of us a warped sense of the type of season it has been. To date, it has been historically active.

So far, we've seen 3 hurricanes, one of which was historic in Beryl as our earliest category 5 on record. Our ACE to date is 55.1 where climatology says it should be 20. Currently the North Atlantic is beating the WPAC in ACE, which averages 108.5 at this point. Relative to normal, our basin has been active compared to all the other northern hemisphere basins, which are having down years. I don't do the data analysis nearly as well as @GaWx, but this season to date is second in ACE in the satellite era (1966). It is only surpassed by the anomaly of anomalies, 2005. 

Image below from the tremendous data tracking site by Dr. Kim Wood. 

 

The image above says a lot. It says that we've been historically active and that it has been a quality over quantity season, much like 2017. It says that we have have ebbs and flows in the season, driven early on by Beryl but then carried further by Debby and Ernesto. Most important for this forecast, it says we're at a crossroad in the season.

Usually, the number of storms to date doesn't speak to the kind of peak we will have. I think that's the case here. I'm not sure we've had enough NS however to prevent the big NS forecasts from overshooting the mark, including my original seasonal forecast of 28 NS. That said, I think the type of storms we've seen so far does speak to the quality of storms we're likely to see during the peak, and that spells trouble. 

Even at a middling pace the rest of the season, we're squarely on track for a hyperactive season. 

So, what does the August 20 - October 20 period hold?
When the lid comes off, I expect a hyperactive peak.  

Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)
Named Storms: 15 
Hurricanes: 10
Major Hurricanes: 5

I can't do the calculations but I imagine this kind of peak would put us well over 200 ACE, and I think we finish the season within the top 5 for ACE (227.2+) all time in the basin. This is a risky call when the next ten days look quiet on the models. 

As a reminder, a typical season is 14/7/3. 

Let's look at the factors that drive this forecast, and that requires looking beyond the 10 day deterministic models. 

1. ENSO
The La Nina that was expected to be in place by now has been delayed, but probably won't be denied. Either way, having a cool neutral season thus far hasn't forced an unexpected wrinkle in the general atmospheric conditions over the basin. 

Within this current regime, we have seen very low shear across the Caribbean, and nothing suggests that this will unexpectedly reverse through the peak of the season. If you're looking for how we don't have an active peak, even if my forecast is off, ENSO won't be the reason. 

2. West African Monsoon
This has been interesting. Although it may not feel like it, one of the sub-themes of the season to me has been the number of vigorous African waves that have rolled off the continent during periods of activity. All three of our eventual hurricanes originated from those waves. 

However, an active WAM can be a double edged sword. As we've seen in the last month or so, a lot of those waves have come off and brought big intrusions of SAL during the climatological peak of SAL season, or, as is the case in the past few weeks, come off too far north, being killed by both dry air and far cooler sea surface temperatures. The WAM is likely to stay active, but I think the climatological drop off in SAL coupled with waves beginning to come off the African continent at a lower latitude as the monsoon trough sags south should put future waves in better position to develop.

3. Wind Shear
As I noted above, wind shear has not been a major issue thus far this season. Keep in mind that yes, there's almost always wind shear around, but as we saw with Beryl, there have been stretches of anomalously low shear, particularly in the Caribbean. The biggest issue has been near the African coast this month, which may also contribute to the explanation of why we haven't seen a super active month considering the other factors. Keep in mind however that we've had two hurricanes in August.

Wind shear is driven largely by ENSO, which does not look to be getting hostile during the peak. 

 

As we close August, the MDR is open for business on the shear side, and I think it's only going to get more favorable as we move into mid-September through October with a cool neutral or Nina ENSO state. What shear is present near the CONUS will be a factor of what troughing is around during that time, so I wouldn't read too much into exact figures. It's about the overall theme. 

Importantly, I don't see any major issues either with anticyclonic wave breaking or TUTTs getting in the way of TC genesis this fall, which I think opens the tarmac for long runways for developing tropical cyclones to intensify into hurricanes and major hurricanes.

This increases my confidence that this remains a quality over quantity type season, though we will certainly have short lived NS and hurricanes that fail to get to major status. 

4. SSTs/OHC
Not much needs to be said here. It's historically warm. Again. Unlike last year which needed to fight some hostile atmospheric conditions from the ENSO state, this year the atmospheric conditions (shear) should only help promote genesis, development, and intensification across the basin. 

Folks often look to SSTs and Oceanic Heat Content to quickly determine whether a season is active or not, but much more goes into it. What I see from the current layout of SST anomalies, as well as the scale and geographical extent of OHC, is that there is highest end potential across much of the basin if in situ shear and dry air are kept in check. I said it a few months ago, but Beryl was the canary in the coal mine, and I think was a truly meaningful test case for what was possible if the much talked about conditions for a hyperactive season converged. 

Parts of the basin may be running behind 2023 in terms of anomalies, but the anomalies this year are historic in their own right and critically, 2024 has much more favorable atmospheric conditions on balance. 

 

 

5. MJO/CCKW
Not much time will be spent on this, but we know that the timing of the MJO and CCKWs matter in lighting up the basin. Right now with a favorable MJO you'd expect the Atlantic to be active, but the EPAC is. Until that basin quiets down in about a week, we're only likely to see homebrew potential rather than a large scale change over the MDR. 

While these images may look more hostile in the Atlantic, I like seeing rising motion over the Indian Ocean as a signal for robust African wave activity. Climo should be able to overcome a "poorly timed" MJO. 

6. SAL/Stability
I saved this for last, and if you are still reading at this point it's because while all of the other major large scale factors seem to be in alignment for a hyperactive peak, SAL and stability issues have been a big fly in the soup. 

A few weeks ago, I posted in a thread that I thought the SAL would drop significantly in early August. It did happen to drop below the climatological norm, but rebounded in a big way after waves started moving off Africa much further north than we normally see. 

July saw historic outbreaks of SAL which was a reversal from a year ago. Now, while SAL is lower than its been, the seven day average (image courtesy of Michael Lowry), is on the upward bound of climatology. 

Dry air and stability issues are the primary culprit in us not seeing a higher amount of named storms IMO. Even with the three hurricanes we had, Beryl struggled to rapidly intensify near the Texas coast due to dry air entrainment, the same happened with Debby, and Ernesto had a shot to become a major hurricane but took too much time mixing out dry air north of the Antilles as it approached Bermuda. 

That's the only thing that kept them in check. With shear imparting the dry air, all three hurricanes were in near pristine conditions for rapid intensification. That speaks to how critical a factor dry air has been this season imo. 

I do think climatology will prevail in September and especially October when SAL and stability across the basin reach their nadir, but for a forecast of a hyperactive peak, this is the thing I'm watching closest. I will say, looking at the corridor of greater moisture along the traditional MDR path for CV waves and systems, I do think that once we start seeing waves come off Africa at a lower latitude, they will be able to develop much like Ernesto did. 

 

What the SAL also tells me is that the further west you go, the more likely a wave is to find favorable conditions. As I've already laid out, the Caribbean is ripe for activity with well below normal wind shear. It is also more unstable, further away from the influence of SAL intrusions over the eastern tropical Atlantic. 

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/g16split/movies/goes16split.html

These issues with stability aren't new in the basin. Dry air and stability have been a multi-year issue in suppressing activity in the eastern MDR. That history shows us that it hasn't had much of an impact during the peak of the season, and I expect that to be the case again. The western Atlantic will be the hotbed of above average activity even if SAL is above the climatological norm in early September. 

Overall
I am making a bold call in forecasting a hyperactive peak, but I am choosing to look beyond the current surface depictions of the models and analyze the basin environment. It's about as favorable as it gets.

I think that virtually all factors point to at least an above average peak between August 20 - October 20. Perhaps the SAL and MJO need to better align to get the lid removed from the basin, but I do expect the switch to flip and bring with it plenty of high end activity. My expectation is that with continued favorable conditions in the Caribbean and western Atlantic relative to the eastern MDR, that we see vigorous waves gradually develop in this region, with more eastern MDR activity once the sharp climatological decline of SAL takes hold in September. 

Unlike recent years, I think once the lid is off we're running all the way through the peak with very few breaks. This is the kind of year where late October and November could produce significant activity, so even if I am short on my H/MH projection those will still be possible through mid-November, especially in the Caribbean where OHC will be able to support it. I think the SAL and general dry air/stability in the basin suppresses NS activity early, but becomes less of a factor in September. That delay may be enough however to foreclose the high NS seasonal projections. 

Final Note: Landfall Odds
The most impressive thing about this season so far is not that Beryl formed IMO, but that every system so far has made a landfall. Even Ernesto managed to directly impact Bermuda. Some of that is luck to be sure, but two hurricane landfalls on the CONUS before August 15 speaks to the broader steering pattern we've seen in the Atlantic, and weaker eastern MDR waves being able to skirt under breaks in the subtropical ridge and then developing when it's too late to escape. Fortunately for the US, Ernesto bucked this trend some and developed fast enough to be steered north by a trough.

Statistically, the more active the basin is, the higher the odds of a landfall. The Gulf has been a hot spot for activity to say the least in recent years, and with my expectation that the Caribbean will be exceptionally active, I don't think it's going out on a limb in saying that there will be additional hurricane landfalls in the CONUS.

To be clear, projecting landfalls at this range is more speculation than science, but I do believe the ongoing streak of major hurricane strikes on the US continues this season, and I think two major hurricanes will make landfall during this peak season forecast period. I do think that there will be at least one bona fide major hurricane threat to the U.S. East Coast as well, saying nothing of whether that's an actual hit or not, or what region of the coast. The last major EC strike was in 2004. 

Once the lid comes off, I expect it to be full throttle. 

 

[SouthCoastMA]

3 hours ago, Cyclone-68 said:

I mean at this point isn’t  it going to take a historic September to reach the predictions from earlier? 

Well above average September and active October, yes

[Torch Tiger]

On 8/19/2024 at 2:19 PM, Torch Tiger said:

Found my VHS player and VHS.  Assuming my capture card does its job and the VHS tape isn't too far gone, should have a Bob video soon.

capturing now but not sure i'll have time to edit tonight, may take an hour or two  

[kdxken]

21 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

capturing now but not sure i'll have time to edit tonight, may take an hour or two  

How are you trying to edit it? If you have a clunky video editor I would recommend avidemux. It's free and isn't too hard to get a handle on.

 

[Torch Tiger]

13 minutes ago, kdxken said:

How are you trying to edit it? If you have a clunky video editor I would recommend avidemux. It's free and isn't too hard to get a handle on.

 

I know what's up, decided to do just 45 min. worth of VHS and have time to edit it down a bit   Uploading now

[Torch Tiger]

 blocked by youtube 2 times

 

[Torch Tiger]

This time I put "not good for minors" and a pic of Stein as thumbnail, maybe it'll flow through sooner